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        0.09457504920976945,
        0.09445534004277767,
        0.09433564287625584,
        0.09421595770911084,
        0.09409628454024865,
        0.09397662336857637,
        0.09385697419300021,
        0.09373733701242792,
        0.09361771182576484
      ]
    },
    "noise": {
      "labels": [
        "0.05",
        "0.1",
        "0.2",
        "0.3",
        "0.5",
        "0.75",
        "1.0",
        "1.5"
      ],
      "median_sharpe": [
        1.0709560551895887,
        1.0669315002373259,
        1.0512753843706044,
        1.0266467199343619,
        0.9581118135224914,
        0.8562552868076604,
        0.7562851660852622,
        0.5926934129851149
      ],
      "p10_sharpe": [
        1.070550553290363,
        1.0653186318524213,
        1.0449656812256836,
        1.0129484174585681,
        0.9238530391231365,
        0.7914395543938562,
        0.6614783974547386,
        0.4488091184245471
      ],
      "p90_sharpe": [
        1.0713615570888144,
        1.0685443686222305,
        1.0575850875155253,
        1.0403450224101556,
        0.9923705879218463,
        0.9210710192214646,
        0.8510919347157858,
        0.7365777075456827
      ]
    },
    "regimes": {
      "labels": [
        "Strong bull",
        "Bull",
        "Sideways",
        "Bear",
        "Strong bear",
        "Volatility up",
        "Volatility down"
      ],
      "strategy": [
        0.009044965587372942,
        0.008583728768336584,
        -0.010127751611428567,
        0.006621897464466347,
        -0.02103907472626935,
        0.009731231510175036,
        0.006606035921906149
      ],
      "spy": [
        0.017424615282435912,
        0.008305375388603134,
        -0.023244102547507927,
        -0.018370732806505304,
        -0.07467284781452077,
        0.019801456311220798,
        -0.0064377281142873445
      ]
    }
  },
  "tools": [
    {
      "id": "strategy_report",
      "title": "Strategy report",
      "href": "../strategies/varadi-min-correlation.html",
      "status": "ok",
      "note": "Equity, allocations, and replication metrics."
    },
    {
      "id": "quantstats",
      "title": "QuantStats tearsheet",
      "href": "../tearsheets/strategies/varadi-min-correlation.html",
      "status": "ok",
      "note": "Full QuantStats HTML from the same monthly ours path."
    },
    {
      "id": "paper_to_profit",
      "title": "Paper to Profit robustness",
      "href": "https://papertoprofit.substack.com/t/tutorials",
      "status": "ok",
      "note": "t-test vs zero and SPY, overlapping-block bootstrap, rolling OLS alpha decay, 70/30 stability, extra-bps cost grid, return-space noise, and seven SPY regimes. Walk-forward parameter search is not estimable on this catalog snapshot."
    }
  ],
  "writeup": {
    "verdict": "Varadi's Minimum Correlation Portfolio receives a research grade of F (composite 47 / 100) on Paper-to-Profit robustness tests run against published monthly ours versus SPY. On these tests the published path does not currently support a constructive allocation case.",
    "edge": "The path makes money vs zero (p=0.000) but is not a significant edge versus SPY (p=0.420, excess -0.15% per month). Same failure mode as a strategy that only rides beta.",
    "bootstrap": "Block bootstrap of consecutive months (400 paths): P(beat SPY) over 6.0 months is 39%; over 24.0 months is 40%. This is the Paper-to-Profit 'realistic path' test, not a reshuffled iid sample.",
    "persistence": "21% of 12-month OLS windows have a significantly positive slope and 39% are significantly negative. Terminal strategy/SPY wealth ratio is 0.69. A steadily rising log-relative-wealth line is the decay test from the tutorial; a late collapse is a warning.",
    "stability": "70/30 OOS/IS Sharpe ratio is 0.68; second/first-half Sharpe ratio is 0.75. Walk-forward parameter search is not estimable on a frozen catalog snapshot; this split is the overfit proxy. Return-space noise did not halve Sharpe on the tested grid.",
    "cost": "Average daily turnover is 0.437%. Additional one-way costs through 24 bps did not cut Sharpe in half. That is the tutorial's cost-robust case.",
    "regimes": "The path beats SPY in 44% of classified months (5.0/7.0 regimes). In bear/strong-bear/vol-down months it beats SPY 100% of the time. Crisis windows: Dot-com bust: strategy 5.0% vs SPY -38.4%; Global Financial Crisis: strategy 2.0% vs SPY -46.0%; COVID crash: strategy -5.3% vs SPY -19.4%; 2022 inflation shock: strategy -22.7% vs SPY -23.9%.",
    "headline": "Published CAGR 9.65% / Sharpe 1.07 / max DD -23.0% over 426 months. Those headline stats are context only; the grade is the robustness tests above.",
    "limitations": "Tests use published monthly ours, already lagged one bar in the engine, versus SPY. t-tests assume roughly comparable monthly means; Wilcoxon is shown as a non-normal check. Bootstrap paths are overlapping consecutive months (not iid reshuffles). Noise is added to monthly returns, not to OHLC, because this producer does not rerun backtests. Walk-forward parameter optimization, SPA, and PBO are not estimable without a trial ledger. Fee drag is extra one-way bps on catalog average daily turnover, on top of the published costed path."
  },
  "ranks": {
    "cagr": 46.039603960396036,
    "sharpe": 52.97029702970297,
    "score": 54.45544554455446
  },
  "generated_at": "2026-09-22T18:23:05Z"
}