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      "cagr": [
        0.09207325065483829,
        0.09177450417057065,
        0.091475832597814,
        0.09117723591949267,
        0.0908787141185341,
        0.09058026717786949,
        0.09028189508043316,
        0.08998359780916276,
        0.08968537534700083,
        0.08938722767689189,
        0.0890891547817847,
        0.08879115664463111,
        0.08849323324838676,
        0.08819538457601062,
        0.08789761061046342,
        0.08759991133471479,
        0.08730228673173279,
        0.08700473678448994,
        0.0867072614759632,
        0.08640986078913238,
        0.08611253470698044,
        0.08581528321249565,
        0.08551810628866763,
        0.08522100391849063,
        0.08492397608496205
      ]
    },
    "noise": {
      "labels": [
        "0.05",
        "0.1",
        "0.2",
        "0.3",
        "0.5",
        "0.75",
        "1.0",
        "1.5"
      ],
      "median_sharpe": [
        1.024312183328703,
        1.0204649466627025,
        1.0054984075283526,
        0.9819538261967449,
        0.9164313343200152,
        0.8190409288288083,
        0.7234427192823478,
        0.5669841101337709
      ],
      "p10_sharpe": [
        1.0239245490304296,
        1.018923141364629,
        0.999466640489974,
        0.9688586847588839,
        0.8836794453191354,
        0.7570719181805664,
        0.6327942457701679,
        0.4293980538770178
      ],
      "p90_sharpe": [
        1.0246998176269764,
        1.022006751960776,
        1.011530174566731,
        0.9950489676346058,
        0.949183223320895,
        0.8810099394770502,
        0.8140911927945278,
        0.704570166390524
      ]
    },
    "regimes": {
      "labels": [
        "Strong bull",
        "Bull",
        "Sideways",
        "Bear",
        "Strong bear",
        "Volatility up",
        "Volatility down"
      ],
      "strategy": [
        0.00860034724891858,
        0.008193907696124146,
        -0.010647939193773619,
        0.0068969212952884554,
        -0.026231854348340484,
        0.009840481414134622,
        0.006054821799842287
      ],
      "spy": [
        0.017424615282435912,
        0.008305375388603134,
        -0.023244102547507927,
        -0.018370732806505304,
        -0.07467284781452077,
        0.019801456311220798,
        -0.0064377281142873445
      ]
    }
  },
  "tools": [
    {
      "id": "strategy_report",
      "title": "Strategy report",
      "href": "../strategies/varadi-min-correlation-daily.html",
      "status": "ok",
      "note": "Equity, allocations, and replication metrics."
    },
    {
      "id": "quantstats",
      "title": "QuantStats tearsheet",
      "href": "../tearsheets/strategies/varadi-min-correlation-daily.html",
      "status": "ok",
      "note": "Full QuantStats HTML from the same monthly ours path."
    },
    {
      "id": "paper_to_profit",
      "title": "Paper to Profit robustness",
      "href": "https://papertoprofit.substack.com/t/tutorials",
      "status": "ok",
      "note": "t-test vs zero and SPY, overlapping-block bootstrap, rolling OLS alpha decay, 70/30 stability, extra-bps cost grid, return-space noise, and seven SPY regimes. Walk-forward parameter search is not estimable on this catalog snapshot."
    }
  ],
  "writeup": {
    "verdict": "Varadi's Minimum Correlation Portfolio - Daily receives a research grade of F (composite 45 / 100) on Paper-to-Profit robustness tests run against published monthly ours versus SPY. On these tests the published path does not currently support a constructive allocation case.",
    "edge": "The path makes money vs zero (p=0.000) but is not a significant edge versus SPY (p=0.307, excess -0.19% per month). Same failure mode as a strategy that only rides beta.",
    "bootstrap": "Block bootstrap of consecutive months (400 paths): P(beat SPY) over 6.0 months is 37%; over 24.0 months is 38%. This is the Paper-to-Profit 'realistic path' test, not a reshuffled iid sample.",
    "persistence": "20% of 12-month OLS windows have a significantly positive slope and 41% are significantly negative. Terminal strategy/SPY wealth ratio is 0.59. A steadily rising log-relative-wealth line is the decay test from the tutorial; a late collapse is a warning.",
    "stability": "70/30 OOS/IS Sharpe ratio is 0.72; second/first-half Sharpe ratio is 0.80. Walk-forward parameter search is not estimable on a frozen catalog snapshot; this split is the overfit proxy. Return-space noise did not halve Sharpe on the tested grid.",
    "cost": "Average daily turnover is 1.093%. Additional one-way costs through 24 bps did not cut Sharpe in half. That is the tutorial's cost-robust case.",
    "regimes": "The path beats SPY in 19% of classified months (4.0/7.0 regimes). In bear/strong-bear/vol-down months it beats SPY 100% of the time. Crisis windows: Dot-com bust: strategy 1.2% vs SPY -38.4%; Global Financial Crisis: strategy 1.4% vs SPY -46.0%; COVID crash: strategy -3.4% vs SPY -19.4%; 2022 inflation shock: strategy -22.5% vs SPY -23.9%.",
    "headline": "Published CAGR 9.21% / Sharpe 1.03 / max DD -23.0% over 426 months. Those headline stats are context only; the grade is the robustness tests above.",
    "limitations": "Tests use published monthly ours, already lagged one bar in the engine, versus SPY. t-tests assume roughly comparable monthly means; Wilcoxon is shown as a non-normal check. Bootstrap paths are overlapping consecutive months (not iid reshuffles). Noise is added to monthly returns, not to OHLC, because this producer does not rerun backtests. Walk-forward parameter optimization, SPA, and PBO are not estimable without a trial ledger. Fee drag is extra one-way bps on catalog average daily turnover, on top of the published costed path."
  },
  "ranks": {
    "cagr": 38.613861386138616,
    "sharpe": 42.07920792079208,
    "score": 45.54455445544554
  },
  "generated_at": "2026-09-22T18:23:05Z"
}