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        0.1455463192122446,
        0.14511471448861668,
        0.14468325878346766,
        0.14425195205003827,
        0.14382079424158212,
        0.1433897853113657,
        0.14295892521266973,
        0.142528213898786,
        0.14209765132302143,
        0.14166723743869714,
        0.14123697219914222,
        0.14080685555770445,
        0.14037688746774335,
        0.13994706788262978,
        0.1395173967557497,
        0.1390878740405017,
        0.1386584996902973,
        0.13822927365856197
      ]
    },
    "noise": {
      "labels": [
        "0.05",
        "0.1",
        "0.2",
        "0.3",
        "0.5",
        "0.75",
        "1.0",
        "1.5"
      ],
      "median_sharpe": [
        0.7718661524615552,
        0.7690544600164336,
        0.758107326489615,
        0.7408569929401273,
        0.6926705580780865,
        0.6205854024198079,
        0.5493349035787123,
        0.43181087994031886
      ],
      "p10_sharpe": [
        0.7715829205842621,
        0.7679277204056042,
        0.7536964468207399,
        0.7312710132064059,
        0.6686286478857529,
        0.5749179455299906,
        0.4822922970365664,
        0.32951106630665494
      ],
      "p90_sharpe": [
        0.7721493843388483,
        0.7701811996272631,
        0.7625182061584901,
        0.7504429726738487,
        0.7167124682704201,
        0.6662528593096251,
        0.6163775101208582,
        0.5341106935739828
      ]
    },
    "regimes": {
      "labels": [
        "Strong bull",
        "Bull",
        "Sideways",
        "Bear",
        "Strong bear",
        "Volatility up",
        "Volatility down"
      ],
      "strategy": [
        0.018087588380225797,
        0.015216923185883864,
        -0.024402651869645638,
        -0.008627452601990472,
        -0.0493577516024856,
        0.029988384857153508,
        -4.244407484736932e-05
      ],
      "spy": [
        0.017424615282435912,
        0.008305375388603134,
        -0.023244102547507927,
        -0.018370732806505304,
        -0.07467284781452077,
        0.019801456311220798,
        -0.0064377281142873445
      ]
    }
  },
  "tools": [
    {
      "id": "strategy_report",
      "title": "Strategy report",
      "href": "../strategies/varadi-gi.html",
      "status": "ok",
      "note": "Equity, allocations, and replication metrics."
    },
    {
      "id": "quantstats",
      "title": "QuantStats tearsheet",
      "href": "../tearsheets/strategies/varadi-gi.html",
      "status": "ok",
      "note": "Full QuantStats HTML from the same monthly ours path."
    },
    {
      "id": "paper_to_profit",
      "title": "Paper to Profit robustness",
      "href": "https://papertoprofit.substack.com/t/tutorials",
      "status": "ok",
      "note": "t-test vs zero and SPY, overlapping-block bootstrap, rolling OLS alpha decay, 70/30 stability, extra-bps cost grid, return-space noise, and seven SPY regimes. Walk-forward parameter search is not estimable on this catalog snapshot."
    }
  ],
  "writeup": {
    "verdict": "Varadi's Growth and Inflation Sector Timing receives a research grade of B (composite 78 / 100) on Paper-to-Profit robustness tests run against published monthly ours versus SPY. The statistical edge and stress tests are strong enough to keep as a candidate; this is still a historical scorecard, not a forecast.",
    "edge": "Monthly mean is 1.34%. t-test vs zero p=0.000; vs SPY p=0.030 (excess 0.49% per month). The path is statistically distinct from SPY on this window.",
    "bootstrap": "Block bootstrap of consecutive months (400 paths): P(beat SPY) over 6.0 months is 46%; over 24.0 months is 51%. This is the Paper-to-Profit 'realistic path' test, not a reshuffled iid sample.",
    "persistence": "33% of 12-month OLS windows have a significantly positive slope and 27% are significantly negative. Terminal strategy/SPY wealth ratio is 5.85. A steadily rising log-relative-wealth line is the decay test from the tutorial; a late collapse is a warning.",
    "stability": "70/30 OOS/IS Sharpe ratio is 1.27; second/first-half Sharpe ratio is 1.39. Walk-forward parameter search is not estimable on a frozen catalog snapshot; this split is the overfit proxy. Return-space noise did not halve Sharpe on the tested grid.",
    "cost": "Average daily turnover is 1.510%. Additional one-way costs through 24 bps did not cut Sharpe in half. That is the tutorial's cost-robust case.",
    "regimes": "The path beats SPY in 96% of classified months (6.0/7.0 regimes). In bear/strong-bear/vol-down months it beats SPY 100% of the time. Crisis windows: Dot-com bust: strategy 55.9% vs SPY -38.4%; Global Financial Crisis: strategy -32.7% vs SPY -46.0%; COVID crash: strategy -17.1% vs SPY -19.4%; 2022 inflation shock: strategy 1.6% vs SPY -23.9%.",
    "headline": "Published CAGR 14.86% / Sharpe 0.77 / max DD -77.7% over 1176 months. Those headline stats are context only; the grade is the robustness tests above.",
    "limitations": "Tests use published monthly ours, already lagged one bar in the engine, versus SPY. t-tests assume roughly comparable monthly means; Wilcoxon is shown as a non-normal check. Bootstrap paths are overlapping consecutive months (not iid reshuffles). Noise is added to monthly returns, not to OHLC, because this producer does not rerun backtests. Walk-forward parameter optimization, SPA, and PBO are not estimable without a trial ledger. Fee drag is extra one-way bps on catalog average daily turnover, on top of the published costed path."
  },
  "ranks": {
    "cagr": 92.57425742574257,
    "sharpe": 9.900990099009901,
    "score": 94.55445544554455
  },
  "generated_at": "2026-09-22T18:23:05Z"
}