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        0.07339184710329483,
        0.07338051742144192,
        0.07336918784920665,
        0.07335785838658704,
        0.07334652903358263,
        0.07333519979019232
      ]
    },
    "noise": {
      "labels": [
        "0.05",
        "0.1",
        "0.2",
        "0.3",
        "0.5",
        "0.75",
        "1.0",
        "1.5"
      ],
      "median_sharpe": [
        1.2785173961300604,
        1.2738133080276024,
        1.2555031726512451,
        1.2266659669251645,
        1.146211006792284,
        1.0261046880118387,
        0.9076566213620118,
        0.7127804169109588
      ],
      "p10_sharpe": [
        1.2780435015173477,
        1.2719281869841523,
        1.2481250109948878,
        1.210636643550983,
        1.1060451953782382,
        0.9499069809636596,
        0.7959244943188845,
        0.5425854285325157
      ],
      "p90_sharpe": [
        1.2789912907427732,
        1.2756984290710525,
        1.2628813343076024,
        1.242695290299346,
        1.1863768182063297,
        1.102302395060018,
        1.019388748405139,
        0.882975405289402
      ]
    },
    "regimes": {
      "labels": [
        "Strong bull",
        "Bull",
        "Sideways",
        "Bear",
        "Strong bear",
        "Volatility up",
        "Volatility down"
      ],
      "strategy": [
        0.006667023452520091,
        0.006821122503121061,
        -0.00315172998342681,
        0.0011206381606969932,
        -0.013559965383508973,
        0.005754618410207705,
        0.005523932387186313
      ],
      "spy": [
        0.017424615282435912,
        0.008305375388603134,
        -0.023244102547507927,
        -0.018370732806505304,
        -0.07467284781452077,
        0.019801456311220798,
        -0.0064377281142873445
      ]
    }
  },
  "tools": [
    {
      "id": "strategy_report",
      "title": "Strategy report",
      "href": "../strategies/us-erc.html",
      "status": "ok",
      "note": "Equity, allocations, and replication metrics."
    },
    {
      "id": "quantstats",
      "title": "QuantStats tearsheet",
      "href": "../tearsheets/strategies/us-erc.html",
      "status": "ok",
      "note": "Full QuantStats HTML from the same monthly ours path."
    },
    {
      "id": "paper_to_profit",
      "title": "Paper to Profit robustness",
      "href": "https://papertoprofit.substack.com/t/tutorials",
      "status": "ok",
      "note": "t-test vs zero and SPY, overlapping-block bootstrap, rolling OLS alpha decay, 70/30 stability, extra-bps cost grid, return-space noise, and seven SPY regimes. Walk-forward parameter search is not estimable on this catalog snapshot."
    }
  ],
  "writeup": {
    "verdict": "US Equal Risk Contribution receives a research grade of F (composite 35 / 100) on Paper-to-Profit robustness tests run against published monthly ours versus SPY. On these tests the published path does not currently support a constructive allocation case.",
    "edge": "The path makes money vs zero (p=0.000) but is not a significant edge versus SPY (p=0.035, excess -0.36% per month). Same failure mode as a strategy that only rides beta.",
    "bootstrap": "Block bootstrap of consecutive months (400 paths): P(beat SPY) over 6.0 months is 30%; over 24.0 months is 22%. This is the Paper-to-Profit 'realistic path' test, not a reshuffled iid sample.",
    "persistence": "15% of 12-month OLS windows have a significantly positive slope and 53% are significantly negative. Terminal strategy/SPY wealth ratio is 0.31. A steadily rising log-relative-wealth line is the decay test from the tutorial; a late collapse is a warning.",
    "stability": "70/30 OOS/IS Sharpe ratio is 0.39; second/first-half Sharpe ratio is 0.53. Walk-forward parameter search is not estimable on a frozen catalog snapshot; this split is the overfit proxy. Return-space noise did not halve Sharpe on the tested grid.",
    "cost": "Average daily turnover is 0.042%. Additional one-way costs through 24 bps did not cut Sharpe in half. That is the tutorial's cost-robust case.",
    "regimes": "The path beats SPY in 19% of classified months (4.0/7.0 regimes). In bear/strong-bear/vol-down months it beats SPY 100% of the time. Crisis windows: Dot-com bust: strategy 29.9% vs SPY -38.4%; Global Financial Crisis: strategy -9.7% vs SPY -46.0%; COVID crash: strategy -5.6% vs SPY -19.4%; 2022 inflation shock: strategy -20.3% vs SPY -23.9%.",
    "headline": "Published CAGR 7.36% / Sharpe 1.28 / max DD -20.3% over 726 months. Those headline stats are context only; the grade is the robustness tests above.",
    "limitations": "Tests use published monthly ours, already lagged one bar in the engine, versus SPY. t-tests assume roughly comparable monthly means; Wilcoxon is shown as a non-normal check. Bootstrap paths are overlapping consecutive months (not iid reshuffles). Noise is added to monthly returns, not to OHLC, because this producer does not rerun backtests. Walk-forward parameter optimization, SPA, and PBO are not estimable without a trial ledger. Fee drag is extra one-way bps on catalog average daily turnover, on top of the published costed path."
  },
  "ranks": {
    "cagr": 16.831683168316832,
    "sharpe": 90.0990099009901,
    "score": 5.445544554455446
  },
  "generated_at": "2026-09-22T18:23:05Z"
}