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    "regimes": {
      "labels": [
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        "Volatility up",
        "Volatility down"
      ],
      "strategy": [
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      "spy": [
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    }
  },
  "tools": [
    {
      "id": "strategy_report",
      "title": "Strategy report",
      "href": "../strategies/spf-recession-probability-db.html",
      "status": "ok",
      "note": "Equity, allocations, and replication metrics."
    },
    {
      "id": "quantstats",
      "title": "QuantStats tearsheet",
      "href": "../tearsheets/strategies/spf-recession-probability-db.html",
      "status": "ok",
      "note": "Full QuantStats HTML from the same monthly ours path."
    },
    {
      "id": "paper_to_profit",
      "title": "Paper to Profit robustness",
      "href": "https://papertoprofit.substack.com/t/tutorials",
      "status": "ok",
      "note": "t-test vs zero and SPY, overlapping-block bootstrap, rolling OLS alpha decay, 70/30 stability, extra-bps cost grid, return-space noise, and seven SPY regimes. Walk-forward parameter search is not estimable on this catalog snapshot."
    }
  ],
  "writeup": {
    "verdict": "SPF Recession Probability [Dynamic Bond] receives a research grade of F (composite 41 / 100) on Paper-to-Profit robustness tests run against published monthly ours versus SPY. On these tests the published path does not currently support a constructive allocation case.",
    "edge": "The path makes money vs zero (p=0.000) but is not a significant edge versus SPY (p=0.065, excess -0.31% per month). Same failure mode as a strategy that only rides beta.",
    "bootstrap": "Block bootstrap of consecutive months (400 paths): P(beat SPY) over 6.0 months is 30%; over 24.0 months is 28%. This is the Paper-to-Profit 'realistic path' test, not a reshuffled iid sample.",
    "persistence": "15% of 12-month OLS windows have a significantly positive slope and 56% are significantly negative. Terminal strategy/SPY wealth ratio is 0.38. A steadily rising log-relative-wealth line is the decay test from the tutorial; a late collapse is a warning.",
    "stability": "70/30 OOS/IS Sharpe ratio is 0.90; second/first-half Sharpe ratio is 0.75. Walk-forward parameter search is not estimable on a frozen catalog snapshot; this split is the overfit proxy. Return-space noise did not halve Sharpe on the tested grid.",
    "cost": "Average daily turnover is 0.369%. Additional one-way costs through 24 bps did not cut Sharpe in half. That is the tutorial's cost-robust case.",
    "regimes": "The path beats SPY in 19% of classified months (4.0/7.0 regimes). In bear/strong-bear/vol-down months it beats SPY 100% of the time. Crisis windows: Dot-com bust: strategy 6.5% vs SPY -38.4%; Global Financial Crisis: strategy 9.7% vs SPY -46.0%; COVID crash: strategy -8.8% vs SPY -19.4%; 2022 inflation shock: strategy 1.0% vs SPY -23.9%.",
    "headline": "Published CAGR 8.59% / Sharpe 1.11 / max DD -17.7% over 688 months. Those headline stats are context only; the grade is the robustness tests above.",
    "limitations": "Tests use published monthly ours, already lagged one bar in the engine, versus SPY. t-tests assume roughly comparable monthly means; Wilcoxon is shown as a non-normal check. Bootstrap paths are overlapping consecutive months (not iid reshuffles). Noise is added to monthly returns, not to OHLC, because this producer does not rerun backtests. Walk-forward parameter optimization, SPA, and PBO are not estimable without a trial ledger. Fee drag is extra one-way bps on catalog average daily turnover, on top of the published costed path."
  },
  "ranks": {
    "cagr": 29.702970297029704,
    "sharpe": 65.34653465346534,
    "score": 26.237623762376238
  },
  "generated_at": "2026-09-22T18:23:05Z"
}