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        0.09548796952399008,
        0.0949084087852492,
        0.09432912910120539,
        0.09375013034795332,
        0.09317141240164073,
        0.0925929751384642,
        0.09201481843466985,
        0.09143694216655218,
        0.09085934621045189,
        0.0902820304427634,
        0.08970499473992732,
        0.08912823897843536,
        0.08855176303482759,
        0.08797556678568963,
        0.08739965010766126,
        0.08682401287742825,
        0.08624865497172673,
        0.08567357626734018,
        0.08509877664110421
      ]
    },
    "noise": {
      "labels": [
        "0.05",
        "0.1",
        "0.2",
        "0.3",
        "0.5",
        "0.75",
        "1.0",
        "1.5"
      ],
      "median_sharpe": [
        1.0287017586018983,
        1.0248076383609415,
        1.0096619895805476,
        0.9858460429030071,
        0.9196329086223928,
        0.8213798112726025,
        0.7251067157440154,
        0.5678578228299259
      ],
      "p10_sharpe": [
        1.0283093771318552,
        1.0232470208186113,
        1.0035576774040993,
        0.9725969467232967,
        0.886519872158498,
        0.7587908456037706,
        0.6336358214166075,
        0.4292122606282911
      ],
      "p90_sharpe": [
        1.0290941400719413,
        1.0263682559032716,
        1.015766301756996,
        0.9990951390827176,
        0.9527459450862875,
        0.8839687769414344,
        0.8165776100714234,
        0.7065033850315607
      ]
    },
    "regimes": {
      "labels": [
        "Strong bull",
        "Bull",
        "Sideways",
        "Bear",
        "Strong bear",
        "Volatility up",
        "Volatility down"
      ],
      "strategy": [
        0.010103195817094183,
        0.0077509811304147126,
        0.003041441922371524,
        0.00528396766247123,
        -0.03363079248478421,
        0.008231337111980427,
        0.007847536945395077
      ],
      "spy": [
        0.016891157791225853,
        0.007438230290568019,
        -0.028492105700941038,
        -0.018370732806505304,
        -0.07467284781452077,
        0.019801456311220798,
        -0.0064377281142873445
      ]
    }
  },
  "tools": [
    {
      "id": "strategy_report",
      "title": "Strategy report",
      "href": "../strategies/schwoerer-holy-grail.html",
      "status": "ok",
      "note": "Equity, allocations, and replication metrics."
    },
    {
      "id": "quantstats",
      "title": "QuantStats tearsheet",
      "href": "../tearsheets/strategies/schwoerer-holy-grail.html",
      "status": "ok",
      "note": "Full QuantStats HTML from the same monthly ours path."
    },
    {
      "id": "paper_to_profit",
      "title": "Paper to Profit robustness",
      "href": "https://papertoprofit.substack.com/t/tutorials",
      "status": "ok",
      "note": "t-test vs zero and SPY, overlapping-block bootstrap, rolling OLS alpha decay, 70/30 stability, extra-bps cost grid, return-space noise, and seven SPY regimes. Walk-forward parameter search is not estimable on this catalog snapshot."
    }
  ],
  "writeup": {
    "verdict": "Holy Grail Dual Momentum (Schwoerer) receives a research grade of F (composite 49 / 100) on Paper-to-Profit robustness tests run against published monthly ours versus SPY. On these tests the published path does not currently support a constructive allocation case.",
    "edge": "The path makes money vs zero (p=0.000) but is not a significant edge versus SPY (p=0.655, excess -0.10% per month). Same failure mode as a strategy that only rides beta.",
    "bootstrap": "Block bootstrap of consecutive months (400 paths): P(beat SPY) over 6.0 months is 42%; over 24.0 months is 38%. This is the Paper-to-Profit 'realistic path' test, not a reshuffled iid sample.",
    "persistence": "21% of 12-month OLS windows have a significantly positive slope and 37% are significantly negative. Terminal strategy/SPY wealth ratio is 0.87. A steadily rising log-relative-wealth line is the decay test from the tutorial; a late collapse is a warning.",
    "stability": "70/30 OOS/IS Sharpe ratio is 1.00; second/first-half Sharpe ratio is 1.18. Walk-forward parameter search is not estimable on a frozen catalog snapshot; this split is the overfit proxy. Return-space noise did not halve Sharpe on the tested grid.",
    "cost": "Average daily turnover is 2.115%. Additional one-way costs through 24 bps did not cut Sharpe in half. That is the tutorial's cost-robust case.",
    "regimes": "The path beats SPY in 42% of classified months (5.0/7.0 regimes). In bear/strong-bear/vol-down months it beats SPY 100% of the time. Crisis windows: Dot-com bust: strategy -8.6% vs SPY -38.4%; Global Financial Crisis: strategy -1.0% vs SPY -46.0%; COVID crash: strategy -2.0% vs SPY -19.4%; 2022 inflation shock: strategy -3.7% vs SPY -23.9%.",
    "headline": "Published CAGR 9.90% / Sharpe 1.03 / max DD -12.6% over 368 months. Those headline stats are context only; the grade is the robustness tests above.",
    "limitations": "Tests use published monthly ours, already lagged one bar in the engine, versus SPY. t-tests assume roughly comparable monthly means; Wilcoxon is shown as a non-normal check. Bootstrap paths are overlapping consecutive months (not iid reshuffles). Noise is added to monthly returns, not to OHLC, because this producer does not rerun backtests. Walk-forward parameter optimization, SPA, and PBO are not estimable without a trial ledger. Fee drag is extra one-way bps on catalog average daily turnover, on top of the published costed path."
  },
  "ranks": {
    "cagr": 50.495049504950494,
    "sharpe": 44.05940594059406,
    "score": 66.83168316831683
  },
  "generated_at": "2026-09-22T18:23:05Z"
}