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        0.09731374738226495,
        0.09721016301662821,
        0.09710658761386282,
        0.09700302117326398,
        0.09689946369412672,
        0.09679591517574626
      ]
    },
    "noise": {
      "labels": [
        "0.05",
        "0.1",
        "0.2",
        "0.3",
        "0.5",
        "0.75",
        "1.0",
        "1.5"
      ],
      "median_sharpe": [
        1.1238300978285904,
        1.1196060616181573,
        1.1031740181527887,
        1.077325007606241,
        1.0053958671198504,
        0.8984990513750847,
        0.7935864267943561,
        0.6219148631860021
      ],
      "p10_sharpe": [
        1.1234044962064569,
        1.1179132491328938,
        1.0965515926279146,
        1.0629478789174027,
        0.9694399962850948,
        0.8304741358168993,
        0.6940877238619523,
        0.4709146911710921
      ],
      "p90_sharpe": [
        1.124255699450724,
        1.1212988741034209,
        1.1097964436776628,
        1.0917021362950794,
        1.041351737954606,
        0.96652396693327,
        0.8930851297267599,
        0.7729150352009121
      ]
    },
    "regimes": {
      "labels": [
        "Strong bull",
        "Bull",
        "Sideways",
        "Bear",
        "Strong bear",
        "Volatility up",
        "Volatility down"
      ],
      "strategy": [
        0.0135965058557839,
        0.004380719519570994,
        -0.008734451437615021,
        -0.007590737352576033,
        -0.0011560313962018693,
        0.009594994631827664,
        0.0038659813710112054
      ],
      "spy": [
        0.016898823702853064,
        0.007438230290568019,
        -0.028492105700941038,
        -0.018370732806505304,
        -0.07467284781452077,
        0.019801456311220798,
        -0.0064377281142873445
      ]
    }
  },
  "tools": [
    {
      "id": "strategy_report",
      "title": "Strategy report",
      "href": "../strategies/risk-off-spy-exposure.html",
      "status": "ok",
      "note": "Equity, allocations, and replication metrics."
    },
    {
      "id": "quantstats",
      "title": "QuantStats tearsheet",
      "href": "../tearsheets/strategies/risk-off-spy-exposure.html",
      "status": "ok",
      "note": "Full QuantStats HTML from the same monthly ours path."
    },
    {
      "id": "paper_to_profit",
      "title": "Paper to Profit robustness",
      "href": "https://papertoprofit.substack.com/t/tutorials",
      "status": "ok",
      "note": "t-test vs zero and SPY, overlapping-block bootstrap, rolling OLS alpha decay, 70/30 stability, extra-bps cost grid, return-space noise, and seven SPY regimes. Walk-forward parameter search is not estimable on this catalog snapshot."
    }
  ],
  "writeup": {
    "verdict": "Risk-off Gauge SPY Exposure receives a research grade of F (composite 44 / 100) on Paper-to-Profit robustness tests run against published monthly ours versus SPY. On these tests the published path does not currently support a constructive allocation case.",
    "edge": "The path makes money vs zero (p=0.000) but is not a significant edge versus SPY (p=0.539, excess -0.10% per month). Same failure mode as a strategy that only rides beta.",
    "bootstrap": "Block bootstrap of consecutive months (400 paths): P(beat SPY) over 6.0 months is 32%; over 24.0 months is 33%. This is the Paper-to-Profit 'realistic path' test, not a reshuffled iid sample.",
    "persistence": "18% of 12-month OLS windows have a significantly positive slope and 56% are significantly negative. Terminal strategy/SPY wealth ratio is 0.89. A steadily rising log-relative-wealth line is the decay test from the tutorial; a late collapse is a warning.",
    "stability": "70/30 OOS/IS Sharpe ratio is 0.91; second/first-half Sharpe ratio is 0.96. Walk-forward parameter search is not estimable on a frozen catalog snapshot; this split is the overfit proxy. Return-space noise did not halve Sharpe on the tested grid.",
    "cost": "Average daily turnover is 0.377%. Additional one-way costs through 24 bps did not cut Sharpe in half. That is the tutorial's cost-robust case.",
    "regimes": "The path beats SPY in 20% of classified months (4.0/7.0 regimes). In bear/strong-bear/vol-down months it beats SPY 100% of the time. Crisis windows: Dot-com bust: strategy 3.1% vs SPY -38.4%; Global Financial Crisis: strategy -3.1% vs SPY -46.0%; COVID crash: strategy -7.6% vs SPY -19.4%; 2022 inflation shock: strategy -4.8% vs SPY -23.9%.",
    "headline": "Published CAGR 9.93% / Sharpe 1.13 / max DD -11.5% over 367 months. Those headline stats are context only; the grade is the robustness tests above.",
    "limitations": "Tests use published monthly ours, already lagged one bar in the engine, versus SPY. t-tests assume roughly comparable monthly means; Wilcoxon is shown as a non-normal check. Bootstrap paths are overlapping consecutive months (not iid reshuffles). Noise is added to monthly returns, not to OHLC, because this producer does not rerun backtests. Walk-forward parameter optimization, SPA, and PBO are not estimable without a trial ledger. Fee drag is extra one-way bps on catalog average daily turnover, on top of the published costed path."
  },
  "ranks": {
    "cagr": 50.99009900990099,
    "sharpe": 71.2871287128713,
    "score": 39.10891089108911
  },
  "generated_at": "2026-09-22T18:23:05Z"
}