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        1.142071382182692,
        1.125354447028798,
        1.099053275462368,
        1.0258410490664291,
        0.916974077795158,
        0.8100612124147596,
        0.6349942802547875
      ],
      "p10_sharpe": [
        1.145935390068912,
        1.140349359238317,
        1.1186173435382547,
        1.084425820501896,
        0.9892499261871753,
        0.8477228635345229,
        0.7087361385400048,
        0.48114912673204124
      ],
      "p90_sharpe": [
        1.1468012678820028,
        1.143793405127067,
        1.1320915505193412,
        1.1136807304228402,
        1.062432171945683,
        0.9862252920557932,
        0.9113862862895143,
        0.7888394337775338
      ]
    },
    "regimes": {
      "labels": [
        "Strong bull",
        "Bull",
        "Sideways",
        "Bear",
        "Strong bear",
        "Volatility up",
        "Volatility down"
      ],
      "strategy": [
        0.008350435012987096,
        0.0073590533259300685,
        -0.00810763338808526,
        0.0022844515422129267,
        -0.009292096417889492,
        0.010208800123025805,
        0.00878508263046264
      ],
      "spy": [
        0.017424615282435912,
        0.008305375388603134,
        -0.023244102547507927,
        -0.018370732806505304,
        -0.07467284781452077,
        0.019801456311220798,
        -0.0064377281142873445
      ]
    }
  },
  "tools": [
    {
      "id": "strategy_report",
      "title": "Strategy report",
      "href": "../strategies/raa-db.html",
      "status": "ok",
      "note": "Equity, allocations, and replication metrics."
    },
    {
      "id": "quantstats",
      "title": "QuantStats tearsheet",
      "href": "../tearsheets/strategies/raa-db.html",
      "status": "ok",
      "note": "Full QuantStats HTML from the same monthly ours path."
    },
    {
      "id": "paper_to_profit",
      "title": "Paper to Profit robustness",
      "href": "https://papertoprofit.substack.com/t/tutorials",
      "status": "ok",
      "note": "t-test vs zero and SPY, overlapping-block bootstrap, rolling OLS alpha decay, 70/30 stability, extra-bps cost grid, return-space noise, and seven SPY regimes. Walk-forward parameter search is not estimable on this catalog snapshot."
    }
  ],
  "writeup": {
    "verdict": "Resilient Asset Allocation [Dynamic Bond] receives a research grade of F (composite 39 / 100) on Paper-to-Profit robustness tests run against published monthly ours versus SPY. On these tests the published path does not currently support a constructive allocation case.",
    "edge": "The path makes money vs zero (p=0.000) but is not a significant edge versus SPY (p=0.320, excess -0.18% per month). Same failure mode as a strategy that only rides beta.",
    "bootstrap": "Block bootstrap of consecutive months (400 paths): P(beat SPY) over 6.0 months is 38%; over 24.0 months is 33%. This is the Paper-to-Profit 'realistic path' test, not a reshuffled iid sample.",
    "persistence": "18% of 12-month OLS windows have a significantly positive slope and 46% are significantly negative. Terminal strategy/SPY wealth ratio is 0.63. A steadily rising log-relative-wealth line is the decay test from the tutorial; a late collapse is a warning.",
    "stability": "70/30 OOS/IS Sharpe ratio is 0.42; second/first-half Sharpe ratio is 0.61. Walk-forward parameter search is not estimable on a frozen catalog snapshot; this split is the overfit proxy. Return-space noise did not halve Sharpe on the tested grid.",
    "cost": "Average daily turnover is 0.348%. Additional one-way costs through 24 bps did not cut Sharpe in half. That is the tutorial's cost-robust case.",
    "regimes": "The path beats SPY in 19% of classified months (4.0/7.0 regimes). In bear/strong-bear/vol-down months it beats SPY 100% of the time. Crisis windows: Dot-com bust: strategy 8.5% vs SPY -38.4%; Global Financial Crisis: strategy 11.4% vs SPY -46.0%; COVID crash: strategy -5.1% vs SPY -19.4%; 2022 inflation shock: strategy -21.4% vs SPY -23.9%.",
    "headline": "Published CAGR 9.34% / Sharpe 1.15 / max DD -21.4% over 426 months. Those headline stats are context only; the grade is the robustness tests above.",
    "limitations": "Tests use published monthly ours, already lagged one bar in the engine, versus SPY. t-tests assume roughly comparable monthly means; Wilcoxon is shown as a non-normal check. Bootstrap paths are overlapping consecutive months (not iid reshuffles). Noise is added to monthly returns, not to OHLC, because this producer does not rerun backtests. Walk-forward parameter optimization, SPA, and PBO are not estimable without a trial ledger. Fee drag is extra one-way bps on catalog average daily turnover, on top of the published costed path."
  },
  "ranks": {
    "cagr": 41.08910891089109,
    "sharpe": 74.75247524752476,
    "score": 15.841584158415841
  },
  "generated_at": "2026-09-22T18:23:05Z"
}