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        0.10488450103902913,
        0.10451292587214689,
        0.104141465242934,
        0.10377011911929634,
        0.10339888746914538,
        0.10302777026040788,
        0.10265676746101349,
        0.10228587903889985,
        0.10191510496201261,
        0.10154444519831074,
        0.10117389971575452,
        0.10080346848231403,
        0.10043315146597243,
        0.10006294863471377,
        0.09969285995653343,
        0.09932288539943679,
        0.09895302493143432,
        0.09858327852054449,
        0.09821364613479688,
        0.09784412774222662,
        0.09747472331087592
      ]
    },
    "noise": {
      "labels": [
        "0.05",
        "0.1",
        "0.2",
        "0.3",
        "0.5",
        "0.75",
        "1.0",
        "1.5"
      ],
      "median_sharpe": [
        0.8679607740690233,
        0.8647270417346222,
        0.8521443726228893,
        0.8323411150287366,
        0.7771752933672686,
        0.6950381891476421,
        0.6142643300480912,
        0.48179486547508754
      ],
      "p10_sharpe": [
        0.867634974198491,
        0.8634311221637696,
        0.8470736523185168,
        0.8213294174461183,
        0.74961384928621,
        0.6428356138006955,
        0.5378295969712793,
        0.3656192930263745
      ],
      "p90_sharpe": [
        0.8682865739395556,
        0.8660229613054748,
        0.8572150929272618,
        0.843352812611355,
        0.8047367374483273,
        0.7472407644945888,
        0.6906990631249031,
        0.5979704379238006
      ]
    },
    "regimes": {
      "labels": [
        "Strong bull",
        "Bull",
        "Sideways",
        "Bear",
        "Strong bear",
        "Volatility up",
        "Volatility down"
      ],
      "strategy": [
        0.012687667994155395,
        0.009537714510597208,
        -0.016782997292646155,
        -0.0014954093254763662,
        -0.01731343257433064,
        0.013520307977791989,
        0.0022798547902852634
      ],
      "spy": [
        0.017424615282435912,
        0.008305375388603134,
        -0.023244102547507927,
        -0.018370732806505304,
        -0.07467284781452077,
        0.019801456311220798,
        -0.0064377281142873445
      ]
    }
  },
  "tools": [
    {
      "id": "strategy_report",
      "title": "Strategy report",
      "href": "../strategies/livingston-papa-bear.html",
      "status": "ok",
      "note": "Equity, allocations, and replication metrics."
    },
    {
      "id": "quantstats",
      "title": "QuantStats tearsheet",
      "href": "../tearsheets/strategies/livingston-papa-bear.html",
      "status": "ok",
      "note": "Full QuantStats HTML from the same monthly ours path."
    },
    {
      "id": "paper_to_profit",
      "title": "Paper to Profit robustness",
      "href": "https://papertoprofit.substack.com/t/tutorials",
      "status": "ok",
      "note": "t-test vs zero and SPY, overlapping-block bootstrap, rolling OLS alpha decay, 70/30 stability, extra-bps cost grid, return-space noise, and seven SPY regimes. Walk-forward parameter search is not estimable on this catalog snapshot."
    }
  ],
  "writeup": {
    "verdict": "Livingston's Papa Bear Portfolio receives a research grade of F (composite 57 / 100) on Paper-to-Profit robustness tests run against published monthly ours versus SPY. On these tests the published path does not currently support a constructive allocation case.",
    "edge": "The path makes money vs zero (p=0.000) but is not a significant edge versus SPY (p=0.903, excess -0.03% per month). Same failure mode as a strategy that only rides beta.",
    "bootstrap": "Block bootstrap of consecutive months (400 paths): P(beat SPY) over 6.0 months is 46%; over 24.0 months is 38%. This is the Paper-to-Profit 'realistic path' test, not a reshuffled iid sample.",
    "persistence": "23% of 12-month OLS windows have a significantly positive slope and 39% are significantly negative. Terminal strategy/SPY wealth ratio is 0.99. A steadily rising log-relative-wealth line is the decay test from the tutorial; a late collapse is a warning.",
    "stability": "70/30 OOS/IS Sharpe ratio is 0.92; second/first-half Sharpe ratio is 0.88. Walk-forward parameter search is not estimable on a frozen catalog snapshot; this split is the overfit proxy. Return-space noise did not halve Sharpe on the tested grid.",
    "cost": "Average daily turnover is 1.345%. Additional one-way costs through 24 bps did not cut Sharpe in half. That is the tutorial's cost-robust case.",
    "regimes": "The path beats SPY in 44% of classified months (5.0/7.0 regimes). In bear/strong-bear/vol-down months it beats SPY 100% of the time. Crisis windows: Dot-com bust: strategy -11.7% vs SPY -38.4%; Global Financial Crisis: strategy 11.2% vs SPY -46.0%; COVID crash: strategy -0.0% vs SPY -19.4%; 2022 inflation shock: strategy -14.0% vs SPY -23.9%.",
    "headline": "Published CAGR 10.64% / Sharpe 0.87 / max DD -23.5% over 426 months. Those headline stats are context only; the grade is the robustness tests above.",
    "limitations": "Tests use published monthly ours, already lagged one bar in the engine, versus SPY. t-tests assume roughly comparable monthly means; Wilcoxon is shown as a non-normal check. Bootstrap paths are overlapping consecutive months (not iid reshuffles). Noise is added to monthly returns, not to OHLC, because this producer does not rerun backtests. Walk-forward parameter optimization, SPA, and PBO are not estimable without a trial ledger. Fee drag is extra one-way bps on catalog average daily turnover, on top of the published costed path."
  },
  "ranks": {
    "cagr": 60.89108910891089,
    "sharpe": 22.77227722772277,
    "score": 76.73267326732673
  },
  "generated_at": "2026-09-22T18:23:05Z"
}