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        0.8896845161331631,
        0.8867932375458197,
        0.8839019589584763,
        0.8810106803711331,
        0.8781194017837897,
        0.8752281231964465,
        0.8723368446091031,
        0.8694455660217597,
        0.8665542874344164,
        0.863663008847073,
        0.8607717302597299,
        0.8578804516723865,
        0.8549891730850431,
        0.8520978944976998,
        0.8492066159103564,
        0.8463153373230132
      ],
      "cagr": [
        0.10081858637223129,
        0.10046443618358825,
        0.10011039042879566,
        0.09975644907985881,
        0.09940261210879009,
        0.09904887948760788,
        0.09869525118833877,
        0.09834172718301515,
        0.09798830744367582,
        0.09763499194236513,
        0.09728178065113946,
        0.09692867354205648,
        0.09657567058718208,
        0.09622277175858907,
        0.09586997702835798,
        0.0955172863685747,
        0.09516469975133246,
        0.09481221714873089,
        0.09445983853287698,
        0.09410756387588415,
        0.09375539314987202,
        0.0934033263269678,
        0.0930513633793042,
        0.09269950427902263,
        0.09234774899826981
      ]
    },
    "noise": {
      "labels": [
        "0.05",
        "0.1",
        "0.2",
        "0.3",
        "0.5",
        "0.75",
        "1.0",
        "1.5"
      ],
      "median_sharpe": [
        0.9145675265620469,
        0.9111773470816027,
        0.8979841150994788,
        0.8772141465965472,
        0.8193193711974968,
        0.7330270821083669,
        0.6480696296348852,
        0.5085592384857712
      ],
      "p10_sharpe": [
        0.9142259775048851,
        0.9098187441803076,
        0.8926675426035466,
        0.8656665835497355,
        0.79040337553097,
        0.6782233997151011,
        0.5677787114995749,
        0.38641520300572674
      ],
      "p90_sharpe": [
        0.9149090756192086,
        0.9125359499828978,
        0.903300687595411,
        0.8887617096433589,
        0.8482353668640236,
        0.7878307645016326,
        0.7283605477701955,
        0.6307032739658157
      ]
    },
    "regimes": {
      "labels": [
        "Strong bull",
        "Bull",
        "Sideways",
        "Bear",
        "Strong bear",
        "Volatility up",
        "Volatility down"
      ],
      "strategy": [
        0.011358828415941583,
        0.006967842568405307,
        -0.008817675896550144,
        9.664423852421984e-05,
        -0.03087372220289449,
        0.01218960597024881,
        0.006417770121440215
      ],
      "spy": [
        0.017424615282435912,
        0.008305375388603134,
        -0.023244102547507927,
        -0.018370732806505304,
        -0.07467284781452077,
        0.019801456311220798,
        -0.0064377281142873445
      ]
    }
  },
  "tools": [
    {
      "id": "strategy_report",
      "title": "Strategy report",
      "href": "../strategies/livingston-mama-bear.html",
      "status": "ok",
      "note": "Equity, allocations, and replication metrics."
    },
    {
      "id": "quantstats",
      "title": "QuantStats tearsheet",
      "href": "../tearsheets/strategies/livingston-mama-bear.html",
      "status": "ok",
      "note": "Full QuantStats HTML from the same monthly ours path."
    },
    {
      "id": "paper_to_profit",
      "title": "Paper to Profit robustness",
      "href": "https://papertoprofit.substack.com/t/tutorials",
      "status": "ok",
      "note": "t-test vs zero and SPY, overlapping-block bootstrap, rolling OLS alpha decay, 70/30 stability, extra-bps cost grid, return-space noise, and seven SPY regimes. Walk-forward parameter search is not estimable on this catalog snapshot."
    }
  ],
  "writeup": {
    "verdict": "Livingston's Mama Bear Portfolio receives a research grade of F (composite 49 / 100) on Paper-to-Profit robustness tests run against published monthly ours versus SPY. On these tests the published path does not currently support a constructive allocation case.",
    "edge": "The path makes money vs zero (p=0.000) but is not a significant edge versus SPY (p=0.684, excess -0.08% per month). Same failure mode as a strategy that only rides beta.",
    "bootstrap": "Block bootstrap of consecutive months (400 paths): P(beat SPY) over 6.0 months is 40%; over 24.0 months is 36%. This is the Paper-to-Profit 'realistic path' test, not a reshuffled iid sample.",
    "persistence": "21% of 12-month OLS windows have a significantly positive slope and 41% are significantly negative. Terminal strategy/SPY wealth ratio is 0.84. A steadily rising log-relative-wealth line is the decay test from the tutorial; a late collapse is a warning.",
    "stability": "70/30 OOS/IS Sharpe ratio is 0.86; second/first-half Sharpe ratio is 0.97. Walk-forward parameter search is not estimable on a frozen catalog snapshot; this split is the overfit proxy. Return-space noise did not halve Sharpe on the tested grid.",
    "cost": "Average daily turnover is 1.286%. Additional one-way costs through 24 bps did not cut Sharpe in half. That is the tutorial's cost-robust case.",
    "regimes": "The path beats SPY in 19% of classified months (4.0/7.0 regimes). In bear/strong-bear/vol-down months it beats SPY 100% of the time. Crisis windows: Dot-com bust: strategy -3.3% vs SPY -38.4%; Global Financial Crisis: strategy 15.4% vs SPY -46.0%; COVID crash: strategy -10.5% vs SPY -19.4%; 2022 inflation shock: strategy -8.0% vs SPY -23.9%.",
    "headline": "Published CAGR 10.08% / Sharpe 0.92 / max DD -17.1% over 426 months. Those headline stats are context only; the grade is the robustness tests above.",
    "limitations": "Tests use published monthly ours, already lagged one bar in the engine, versus SPY. t-tests assume roughly comparable monthly means; Wilcoxon is shown as a non-normal check. Bootstrap paths are overlapping consecutive months (not iid reshuffles). Noise is added to monthly returns, not to OHLC, because this producer does not rerun backtests. Walk-forward parameter optimization, SPA, and PBO are not estimable without a trial ledger. Fee drag is extra one-way bps on catalog average daily turnover, on top of the published costed path."
  },
  "ranks": {
    "cagr": 51.48514851485149,
    "sharpe": 28.217821782178216,
    "score": 64.35643564356435
  },
  "generated_at": "2026-09-22T18:23:05Z"
}