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        0.10337753200306699,
        0.10296648367956895,
        0.10255557571517437,
        0.1021448080663161,
        0.10173418068943829,
        0.10132369354099735,
        0.10091334657746343,
        0.10050313975531533
      ]
    },
    "noise": {
      "labels": [
        "0.05",
        "0.1",
        "0.2",
        "0.3",
        "0.5",
        "0.75",
        "1.0",
        "1.5"
      ],
      "median_sharpe": [
        0.9423006651274235,
        0.9388146435634194,
        0.925247698173242,
        0.9038870618398953,
        0.8443312805200238,
        0.7555259836296048,
        0.6680548935124211,
        0.5243437260459395
      ],
      "p10_sharpe": [
        0.9419494655293582,
        0.9374176374961529,
        0.9197806084889224,
        0.8920117812555716,
        0.8145892655397386,
        0.6991423795821939,
        0.5854299624298551,
        0.398605444723429
      ],
      "p90_sharpe": [
        0.9426518647254888,
        0.9402116496306858,
        0.9307147878575617,
        0.9157623424242191,
        0.874073295500309,
        0.8119095876770156,
        0.750679824594987,
        0.6500820073684499
      ]
    },
    "regimes": {
      "labels": [
        "Strong bull",
        "Bull",
        "Sideways",
        "Bear",
        "Strong bear",
        "Volatility up",
        "Volatility down"
      ],
      "strategy": [
        0.01299646776094228,
        0.00878167034369731,
        -0.013715694930600882,
        -0.0033642499155566567,
        -0.018517888463041438,
        0.012008313860361853,
        0.008067316871446318
      ],
      "spy": [
        0.017424615282435912,
        0.008305375388603134,
        -0.023244102547507927,
        -0.018370732806505304,
        -0.07467284781452077,
        0.019801456311220798,
        -0.0064377281142873445
      ]
    }
  },
  "tools": [
    {
      "id": "strategy_report",
      "title": "Strategy report",
      "href": "../strategies/gtaa-agg-3.html",
      "status": "ok",
      "note": "Equity, allocations, and replication metrics."
    },
    {
      "id": "quantstats",
      "title": "QuantStats tearsheet",
      "href": "../tearsheets/strategies/gtaa-agg-3.html",
      "status": "ok",
      "note": "Full QuantStats HTML from the same monthly ours path."
    },
    {
      "id": "paper_to_profit",
      "title": "Paper to Profit robustness",
      "href": "https://papertoprofit.substack.com/t/tutorials",
      "status": "ok",
      "note": "t-test vs zero and SPY, overlapping-block bootstrap, rolling OLS alpha decay, 70/30 stability, extra-bps cost grid, return-space noise, and seven SPY regimes. Walk-forward parameter search is not estimable on this catalog snapshot."
    }
  ],
  "writeup": {
    "verdict": "Faber's Global Tactical Asset Alloc. - Agg. 3 receives a research grade of D (composite 61 / 100) on Paper-to-Profit robustness tests run against published monthly ours versus SPY. The live case is weak: either the edge is not significant versus SPY, the path looks overfit, or costs/regimes break it.",
    "edge": "The path makes money vs zero (p=0.000) but is not a significant edge versus SPY (p=0.971, excess 0.01% per month). Same failure mode as a strategy that only rides beta.",
    "bootstrap": "Block bootstrap of consecutive months (400 paths): P(beat SPY) over 6.0 months is 43%; over 24.0 months is 36%. This is the Paper-to-Profit 'realistic path' test, not a reshuffled iid sample.",
    "persistence": "24% of 12-month OLS windows have a significantly positive slope and 36% are significantly negative. Terminal strategy/SPY wealth ratio is 1.17. A steadily rising log-relative-wealth line is the decay test from the tutorial; a late collapse is a warning.",
    "stability": "70/30 OOS/IS Sharpe ratio is 0.89; second/first-half Sharpe ratio is 0.72. Walk-forward parameter search is not estimable on a frozen catalog snapshot; this split is the overfit proxy. Return-space noise did not halve Sharpe on the tested grid.",
    "cost": "Average daily turnover is 1.490%. Additional one-way costs through 24 bps did not cut Sharpe in half. That is the tutorial's cost-robust case.",
    "regimes": "The path beats SPY in 44% of classified months (5.0/7.0 regimes). In bear/strong-bear/vol-down months it beats SPY 100% of the time. Crisis windows: Dot-com bust: strategy 0.8% vs SPY -38.4%; Global Financial Crisis: strategy 14.5% vs SPY -46.0%; COVID crash: strategy -0.3% vs SPY -19.4%; 2022 inflation shock: strategy -1.2% vs SPY -23.9%.",
    "headline": "Published CAGR 11.04% / Sharpe 0.94 / max DD -16.4% over 426 months. Those headline stats are context only; the grade is the robustness tests above.",
    "limitations": "Tests use published monthly ours, already lagged one bar in the engine, versus SPY. t-tests assume roughly comparable monthly means; Wilcoxon is shown as a non-normal check. Bootstrap paths are overlapping consecutive months (not iid reshuffles). Noise is added to monthly returns, not to OHLC, because this producer does not rerun backtests. Walk-forward parameter optimization, SPA, and PBO are not estimable without a trial ledger. Fee drag is extra one-way bps on catalog average daily turnover, on top of the published costed path."
  },
  "ranks": {
    "cagr": 66.33663366336634,
    "sharpe": 32.17821782178218,
    "score": 82.67326732673267
  },
  "generated_at": "2026-09-22T18:23:05Z"
}