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        7.947777675772594,
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        7.972012984664874,
        8.333795144512258,
        8.395966276744675,
        8.335949092446453,
        8.426954246754903
      ]
    },
    "cost": {
      "labels": [
        "0",
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      "sharpe": [
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        1.0831283298061825,
        1.0811697581208812,
        1.07921118643558,
        1.077252614750279
      ],
      "cagr": [
        0.06187948172462421,
        0.0617659157996675,
        0.061652361008070145,
        0.061538817348838704,
        0.061425284820982196,
        0.06131176342350653,
        0.061198253155423155,
        0.06108475401573843,
        0.06097126600345981,
        0.06085778911759698,
        0.060744323357157626,
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        0.060517425208582054,
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        0.060290571549802996,
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        0.06006376237288702,
        0.05995037446265128,
        0.05983699766990891,
        0.05972363199366848,
        0.05961027743293945,
        0.059496933986730616,
        0.05938360165405121,
        0.05927028043391136,
        0.05915697032531808
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    },
    "noise": {
      "labels": [
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        "0.2",
        "0.3",
        "0.5",
        "0.75",
        "1.0",
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      ],
      "median_sharpe": [
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      ],
      "p10_sharpe": [
        1.1224754226889173,
        1.1171655814095756,
        1.0964912832425675,
        1.0639105023340096,
        0.972884762663435,
        0.836672810234631,
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      ],
      "p90_sharpe": [
        1.1232983053851893,
        1.1204391600809283,
        1.1093068456833084,
        1.091763348271008,
        1.042749488448391,
        0.9694045909867273,
        0.8968854855574104,
        0.7772251257601596
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    },
    "regimes": {
      "labels": [
        "Strong bull",
        "Bull",
        "Sideways",
        "Bear",
        "Strong bear",
        "Volatility up",
        "Volatility down"
      ],
      "strategy": [
        0.006805970349350463,
        0.004676784934406347,
        -0.00579881633172723,
        0.001234097821748154,
        -0.00944928511775367,
        0.00462222850331014,
        0.0051330152348215375
      ],
      "spy": [
        0.017424615282435912,
        0.008305375388603134,
        -0.023244102547507927,
        -0.018370732806505304,
        -0.07467284781452077,
        0.019801456311220798,
        -0.0064377281142873445
      ]
    }
  },
  "tools": [
    {
      "id": "strategy_report",
      "title": "Strategy report",
      "href": "../strategies/global-rptf.html",
      "status": "ok",
      "note": "Equity, allocations, and replication metrics."
    },
    {
      "id": "quantstats",
      "title": "QuantStats tearsheet",
      "href": "../tearsheets/strategies/global-rptf.html",
      "status": "ok",
      "note": "Full QuantStats HTML from the same monthly ours path."
    },
    {
      "id": "paper_to_profit",
      "title": "Paper to Profit robustness",
      "href": "https://papertoprofit.substack.com/t/tutorials",
      "status": "ok",
      "note": "t-test vs zero and SPY, overlapping-block bootstrap, rolling OLS alpha decay, 70/30 stability, extra-bps cost grid, return-space noise, and seven SPY regimes. Walk-forward parameter search is not estimable on this catalog snapshot."
    }
  ],
  "writeup": {
    "verdict": "Global Risk Parity Trend Following receives a research grade of F (composite 39 / 100) on Paper-to-Profit robustness tests run against published monthly ours versus SPY. On these tests the published path does not currently support a constructive allocation case.",
    "edge": "The path makes money vs zero (p=0.000) but is not a significant edge versus SPY (p=0.020, excess -0.44% per month). Same failure mode as a strategy that only rides beta.",
    "bootstrap": "Block bootstrap of consecutive months (400 paths): P(beat SPY) over 6.0 months is 30%; over 24.0 months is 23%. This is the Paper-to-Profit 'realistic path' test, not a reshuffled iid sample.",
    "persistence": "17% of 12-month OLS windows have a significantly positive slope and 56% are significantly negative. Terminal strategy/SPY wealth ratio is 0.24. A steadily rising log-relative-wealth line is the decay test from the tutorial; a late collapse is a warning.",
    "stability": "70/30 OOS/IS Sharpe ratio is 0.72; second/first-half Sharpe ratio is 0.40. Walk-forward parameter search is not estimable on a frozen catalog snapshot; this split is the overfit proxy. Return-space noise did not halve Sharpe on the tested grid.",
    "cost": "Average daily turnover is 0.426%. Additional one-way costs through 24 bps did not cut Sharpe in half. That is the tutorial's cost-robust case.",
    "regimes": "The path beats SPY in 19% of classified months (4.0/7.0 regimes). In bear/strong-bear/vol-down months it beats SPY 100% of the time. Crisis windows: Dot-com bust: strategy 12.0% vs SPY -38.4%; Global Financial Crisis: strategy 6.2% vs SPY -46.0%; COVID crash: strategy -4.2% vs SPY -19.4%; 2022 inflation shock: strategy -1.6% vs SPY -23.9%.",
    "headline": "Published CAGR 6.19% / Sharpe 1.12 / max DD -11.3% over 426 months. Those headline stats are context only; the grade is the robustness tests above.",
    "limitations": "Tests use published monthly ours, already lagged one bar in the engine, versus SPY. t-tests assume roughly comparable monthly means; Wilcoxon is shown as a non-normal check. Bootstrap paths are overlapping consecutive months (not iid reshuffles). Noise is added to monthly returns, not to OHLC, because this producer does not rerun backtests. Walk-forward parameter optimization, SPA, and PBO are not estimable without a trial ledger. Fee drag is extra one-way bps on catalog average daily turnover, on top of the published costed path."
  },
  "ranks": {
    "cagr": 4.9504950495049505,
    "sharpe": 70.79207920792079,
    "score": 12.871287128712872
  },
  "generated_at": "2026-09-22T18:23:05Z"
}