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        0.05003968222542765,
        0.04971584985165278,
        0.04939210902579805,
        0.0490684597243356,
        0.048744901923744255,
        0.04842143560050727,
        0.04809806073111056,
        0.04777477729204849,
        0.04745158525982118,
        0.047128484610933885,
        0.046805475321894274
      ]
    },
    "noise": {
      "labels": [
        "0.05",
        "0.1",
        "0.2",
        "0.3",
        "0.5",
        "0.75",
        "1.0",
        "1.5"
      ],
      "median_sharpe": [
        1.0449845198886119,
        1.041191288472869,
        1.0264212164890212,
        1.0031423446327863,
        0.938088392044333,
        0.840698785663544,
        0.7443606248318115,
        0.5853132290797567
      ],
      "p10_sharpe": [
        1.044602423895926,
        1.0396712230554601,
        1.0204701294764582,
        0.9902075960633528,
        0.9056374576983636,
        0.7790309694033377,
        0.6537913603220856,
        0.44702974584441435
      ],
      "p90_sharpe": [
        1.0453666158812978,
        1.0427113538902777,
        1.0323723035015842,
        1.0160770932022198,
        0.9705393263903025,
        0.9023666019237502,
        0.8349298893415374,
        0.723596712315099
      ]
    },
    "regimes": {
      "labels": [
        "Strong bull",
        "Bull",
        "Sideways",
        "Bear",
        "Strong bear",
        "Volatility up",
        "Volatility down"
      ],
      "strategy": [
        0.006176299378435383,
        0.003910831744926927,
        -0.0034043880362709,
        0.0033774647426664957,
        -0.008116932739136976,
        0.00370880981993774,
        0.00385397690341144
      ],
      "spy": [
        0.017424615282435912,
        0.008305375388603134,
        -0.023244102547507927,
        -0.018370732806505304,
        -0.07467284781452077,
        0.019801456311220798,
        -0.0064377281142873445
      ]
    }
  },
  "tools": [
    {
      "id": "strategy_report",
      "title": "Strategy report",
      "href": "../strategies/global-rptf-daily.html",
      "status": "ok",
      "note": "Equity, allocations, and replication metrics."
    },
    {
      "id": "quantstats",
      "title": "QuantStats tearsheet",
      "href": "../tearsheets/strategies/global-rptf-daily.html",
      "status": "ok",
      "note": "Full QuantStats HTML from the same monthly ours path."
    },
    {
      "id": "paper_to_profit",
      "title": "Paper to Profit robustness",
      "href": "https://papertoprofit.substack.com/t/tutorials",
      "status": "ok",
      "note": "t-test vs zero and SPY, overlapping-block bootstrap, rolling OLS alpha decay, 70/30 stability, extra-bps cost grid, return-space noise, and seven SPY regimes. Walk-forward parameter search is not estimable on this catalog snapshot."
    }
  ],
  "writeup": {
    "verdict": "Global Risk Parity Trend Following - Daily receives a research grade of F (composite 38 / 100) on Paper-to-Profit robustness tests run against published monthly ours versus SPY. On these tests the published path does not currently support a constructive allocation case.",
    "edge": "The path makes money vs zero (p=0.000) but is not a significant edge versus SPY (p=0.009, excess -0.49% per month). Same failure mode as a strategy that only rides beta.",
    "bootstrap": "Block bootstrap of consecutive months (400 paths): P(beat SPY) over 6.0 months is 27%; over 24.0 months is 22%. This is the Paper-to-Profit 'realistic path' test, not a reshuffled iid sample.",
    "persistence": "15% of 12-month OLS windows have a significantly positive slope and 58% are significantly negative. Terminal strategy/SPY wealth ratio is 0.19. A steadily rising log-relative-wealth line is the decay test from the tutorial; a late collapse is a warning.",
    "stability": "70/30 OOS/IS Sharpe ratio is 0.72; second/first-half Sharpe ratio is 0.36. Walk-forward parameter search is not estimable on a frozen catalog snapshot; this split is the overfit proxy. Return-space noise did not halve Sharpe on the tested grid.",
    "cost": "Average daily turnover is 1.229%. Additional one-way costs through 24 bps did not cut Sharpe in half. That is the tutorial's cost-robust case.",
    "regimes": "The path beats SPY in 19% of classified months (4.0/7.0 regimes). In bear/strong-bear/vol-down months it beats SPY 100% of the time. Crisis windows: Dot-com bust: strategy 11.0% vs SPY -38.4%; Global Financial Crisis: strategy 6.2% vs SPY -46.0%; COVID crash: strategy -2.5% vs SPY -19.4%; 2022 inflation shock: strategy -1.9% vs SPY -23.9%.",
    "headline": "Published CAGR 5.46% / Sharpe 1.05 / max DD -9.0% over 420 months. Those headline stats are context only; the grade is the robustness tests above.",
    "limitations": "Tests use published monthly ours, already lagged one bar in the engine, versus SPY. t-tests assume roughly comparable monthly means; Wilcoxon is shown as a non-normal check. Bootstrap paths are overlapping consecutive months (not iid reshuffles). Noise is added to monthly returns, not to OHLC, because this producer does not rerun backtests. Walk-forward parameter optimization, SPA, and PBO are not estimable without a trial ledger. Fee drag is extra one-way bps on catalog average daily turnover, on top of the published costed path."
  },
  "ranks": {
    "cagr": 1.9801980198019802,
    "sharpe": 48.01980198019802,
    "score": 10.891089108910892
  },
  "generated_at": "2026-09-22T18:23:05Z"
}