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        0.08807534176202725,
        0.08780601953812939,
        0.08753675842075448,
        0.08726755839730327,
        0.08699841945517228,
        0.08672934158176027,
        0.0864603247644753,
        0.08619136899071766,
        0.08592247424790012,
        0.08565364052343027,
        0.08538486780471977,
        0.08511615607918621,
        0.08484750533424368,
        0.08457891555731556,
        0.08431038673582147,
        0.08404191885718482,
        0.08377351190883475,
        0.0835051658781989,
        0.08323688075270641,
        0.0829686565197949,
        0.08270049316689687,
        0.08243239068145347,
        0.08216434905090408
      ]
    },
    "noise": {
      "labels": [
        "0.05",
        "0.1",
        "0.2",
        "0.3",
        "0.5",
        "0.75",
        "1.0",
        "1.5"
      ],
      "median_sharpe": [
        1.18216857446173,
        1.1777915170572026,
        1.160757211659117,
        1.1339385748129167,
        1.059172935622552,
        0.9477073557480636,
        0.8379371617985372,
        0.6576278992521934
      ],
      "p10_sharpe": [
        1.1817276046263088,
        1.176037430000423,
        1.1538928329829117,
        1.1190286050828513,
        1.0218332741353773,
        0.8769280202985423,
        0.7342267681641579,
        0.4998247268539111
      ],
      "p90_sharpe": [
        1.1826095442971514,
        1.1795456041139822,
        1.1676215903353222,
        1.1488485445429821,
        1.096512597109727,
        1.018486691197585,
        0.9416475554329164,
        0.8154310716504758
      ]
    },
    "regimes": {
      "labels": [
        "Strong bull",
        "Bull",
        "Sideways",
        "Bear",
        "Strong bear",
        "Volatility up",
        "Volatility down"
      ],
      "strategy": [
        0.009971801779377768,
        0.006235029935717323,
        -0.005988541517657353,
        -0.00015162473879088372,
        -0.012847715564243986,
        0.008642269864321981,
        0.004576907595265645
      ],
      "spy": [
        0.017424615282435912,
        0.008305375388603134,
        -0.023244102547507927,
        -0.018370732806505304,
        -0.07467284781452077,
        0.019801456311220798,
        -0.0064377281142873445
      ]
    }
  },
  "tools": [
    {
      "id": "strategy_report",
      "title": "Strategy report",
      "href": "../strategies/efficiente-index.html",
      "status": "ok",
      "note": "Equity, allocations, and replication metrics."
    },
    {
      "id": "quantstats",
      "title": "QuantStats tearsheet",
      "href": "../tearsheets/strategies/efficiente-index.html",
      "status": "ok",
      "note": "Full QuantStats HTML from the same monthly ours path."
    },
    {
      "id": "paper_to_profit",
      "title": "Paper to Profit robustness",
      "href": "https://papertoprofit.substack.com/t/tutorials",
      "status": "ok",
      "note": "t-test vs zero and SPY, overlapping-block bootstrap, rolling OLS alpha decay, 70/30 stability, extra-bps cost grid, return-space noise, and seven SPY regimes. Walk-forward parameter search is not estimable on this catalog snapshot."
    }
  ],
  "writeup": {
    "verdict": "Efficiente Index receives a research grade of F (composite 42 / 100) on Paper-to-Profit robustness tests run against published monthly ours versus SPY. On these tests the published path does not currently support a constructive allocation case.",
    "edge": "The path makes money vs zero (p=0.000) but is not a significant edge versus SPY (p=0.244, excess -0.21% per month). Same failure mode as a strategy that only rides beta.",
    "bootstrap": "Block bootstrap of consecutive months (400 paths): P(beat SPY) over 6.0 months is 34%; over 24.0 months is 29%. This is the Paper-to-Profit 'realistic path' test, not a reshuffled iid sample.",
    "persistence": "18% of 12-month OLS windows have a significantly positive slope and 50% are significantly negative. Terminal strategy/SPY wealth ratio is 0.56. A steadily rising log-relative-wealth line is the decay test from the tutorial; a late collapse is a warning.",
    "stability": "70/30 OOS/IS Sharpe ratio is 0.73; second/first-half Sharpe ratio is 0.75. Walk-forward parameter search is not estimable on a frozen catalog snapshot; this split is the overfit proxy. Return-space noise did not halve Sharpe on the tested grid.",
    "cost": "Average daily turnover is 0.989%. Additional one-way costs through 24 bps did not cut Sharpe in half. That is the tutorial's cost-robust case.",
    "regimes": "The path beats SPY in 19% of classified months (4.0/7.0 regimes). In bear/strong-bear/vol-down months it beats SPY 100% of the time. Crisis windows: Dot-com bust: strategy 12.0% vs SPY -38.4%; Global Financial Crisis: strategy 4.8% vs SPY -46.0%; COVID crash: strategy -7.7% vs SPY -19.4%; 2022 inflation shock: strategy -10.7% vs SPY -23.9%.",
    "headline": "Published CAGR 8.86% / Sharpe 1.18 / max DD -12.4% over 426 months. Those headline stats are context only; the grade is the robustness tests above.",
    "limitations": "Tests use published monthly ours, already lagged one bar in the engine, versus SPY. t-tests assume roughly comparable monthly means; Wilcoxon is shown as a non-normal check. Bootstrap paths are overlapping consecutive months (not iid reshuffles). Noise is added to monthly returns, not to OHLC, because this producer does not rerun backtests. Walk-forward parameter optimization, SPA, and PBO are not estimable without a trial ledger. Fee drag is extra one-way bps on catalog average daily turnover, on top of the published costed path."
  },
  "ranks": {
    "cagr": 35.64356435643565,
    "sharpe": 80.6930693069307,
    "score": 33.16831683168317
  },
  "generated_at": "2026-09-22T18:23:05Z"
}