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        67.35449723252849,
        67.81102509218063,
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        67.47635589443256,
        68.15585364082924,
        68.64622129116641,
        69.0164301332828,
        68.27187382481523
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    "cost": {
      "labels": [
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      "sharpe": [
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        1.1300887250870697,
        1.1286023323372232
      ],
      "cagr": [
        0.11039390687326445,
        0.1102398916708085,
        0.11008589604948127,
        0.10993192000701679,
        0.10977796354115354,
        0.10962402664963178,
        0.10947010933018442,
        0.10931621158055127,
        0.10916233339847126,
        0.10900847478168418,
        0.10885463572792431,
        0.10870081623493322,
        0.10854701630045116,
        0.10839323592221417,
        0.10823947509796361,
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        0.10793201210238212,
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        0.10747096420740831,
        0.1073173206596183,
        0.10716369665000047,
        0.10701009217629154,
        0.10685650723623485,
        0.10670294182757334
      ]
    },
    "noise": {
      "labels": [
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        "0.2",
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        "0.75",
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      ],
      "median_sharpe": [
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      ],
      "p10_sharpe": [
        1.1623771094696085,
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        1.1001183014526512,
        1.0037502082858019,
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      "p90_sharpe": [
        1.1632534089452655,
        1.1602092917527607,
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        1.0778389236924466,
        1.0006404521238736,
        0.9247886479256551,
        0.8005116827648608
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    },
    "regimes": {
      "labels": [
        "Strong bull",
        "Bull",
        "Sideways",
        "Bear",
        "Strong bear",
        "Volatility up",
        "Volatility down"
      ],
      "strategy": [
        0.012451204255841829,
        0.0052957954909636186,
        -0.013832511319123908,
        0.005775653412582238,
        -0.006738699836037254,
        0.015467466157884531,
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      ],
      "spy": [
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        -0.023244102547507927,
        -0.018370732806505304,
        -0.07467284781452077,
        0.019801456311220798,
        -0.0064377281142873445
      ]
    }
  },
  "tools": [
    {
      "id": "strategy_report",
      "title": "Strategy report",
      "href": "../strategies/countercyclical-trend-following.html",
      "status": "ok",
      "note": "Equity, allocations, and replication metrics."
    },
    {
      "id": "quantstats",
      "title": "QuantStats tearsheet",
      "href": "../tearsheets/strategies/countercyclical-trend-following.html",
      "status": "ok",
      "note": "Full QuantStats HTML from the same monthly ours path."
    },
    {
      "id": "paper_to_profit",
      "title": "Paper to Profit robustness",
      "href": "https://papertoprofit.substack.com/t/tutorials",
      "status": "ok",
      "note": "t-test vs zero and SPY, overlapping-block bootstrap, rolling OLS alpha decay, 70/30 stability, extra-bps cost grid, return-space noise, and seven SPY regimes. Walk-forward parameter search is not estimable on this catalog snapshot."
    }
  ],
  "writeup": {
    "verdict": "Countercyclical Trend Following receives a research grade of F (composite 47 / 100) on Paper-to-Profit robustness tests run against published monthly ours versus SPY. On these tests the published path does not currently support a constructive allocation case.",
    "edge": "The path makes money vs zero (p=0.000) but is not a significant edge versus SPY (p=0.878, excess -0.02% per month). Same failure mode as a strategy that only rides beta.",
    "bootstrap": "Block bootstrap of consecutive months (400 paths): P(beat SPY) over 6.0 months is 43%; over 24.0 months is 39%. This is the Paper-to-Profit 'realistic path' test, not a reshuffled iid sample.",
    "persistence": "19% of 12-month OLS windows have a significantly positive slope and 40% are significantly negative. Terminal strategy/SPY wealth ratio is 1.13. A steadily rising log-relative-wealth line is the decay test from the tutorial; a late collapse is a warning.",
    "stability": "70/30 OOS/IS Sharpe ratio is 0.84; second/first-half Sharpe ratio is 0.71. Walk-forward parameter search is not estimable on a frozen catalog snapshot; this split is the overfit proxy. Return-space noise did not halve Sharpe on the tested grid.",
    "cost": "Average daily turnover is 0.555%. Additional one-way costs through 24 bps did not cut Sharpe in half. That is the tutorial's cost-robust case.",
    "regimes": "The path beats SPY in 19% of classified months (4.0/7.0 regimes). In bear/strong-bear/vol-down months it beats SPY 100% of the time. Crisis windows: Dot-com bust: strategy 16.1% vs SPY -38.4%; Global Financial Crisis: strategy -13.5% vs SPY -46.0%; COVID crash: strategy -9.5% vs SPY -19.4%; 2022 inflation shock: strategy -14.7% vs SPY -23.9%.",
    "headline": "Published CAGR 11.04% / Sharpe 1.16 / max DD -18.7% over 484 months. Those headline stats are context only; the grade is the robustness tests above.",
    "limitations": "Tests use published monthly ours, already lagged one bar in the engine, versus SPY. t-tests assume roughly comparable monthly means; Wilcoxon is shown as a non-normal check. Bootstrap paths are overlapping consecutive months (not iid reshuffles). Noise is added to monthly returns, not to OHLC, because this producer does not rerun backtests. Walk-forward parameter optimization, SPA, and PBO are not estimable without a trial ledger. Fee drag is extra one-way bps on catalog average daily turnover, on top of the published costed path."
  },
  "ranks": {
    "cagr": 66.83168316831683,
    "sharpe": 78.21782178217822,
    "score": 53.46534653465346
  },
  "generated_at": "2026-09-22T18:23:05Z"
}