{
  "article": {
    "official_admission": false,
    "required_headings": [
      "Summary",
      "Source",
      "What the source claims",
      "Rules actually disclosed",
      "What had to be inferred",
      "Research questions",
      "Data",
      "Baseline implementation",
      "What the signal looks like",
      "Historical events",
      "State-space exploration",
      "Parameter sensitivity",
      "What worked",
      "What did not work",
      "Why the failures appear to happen",
      "Regime behavior",
      "Timing and cost sensitivity",
      "Combinations",
      "Candidate frontier",
      "Agent assessment",
      "Limitations",
      "What to try interactively",
      "Suggested next research",
      "Promotion status",
      "Trial ledger",
      "Validation protocol",
      "Portfolio contribution"
    ],
    "research_tags": [
      "useful_as_filter",
      "regime_dependent",
      "needs_more_research"
    ],
    "sections": {
      "Baseline implementation": {
        "created_by": "source_baseline",
        "family_id": "vix-backwardation",
        "metrics": {
          "label": "exploratory"
        },
        "parameters": {
          "holding_period": 20,
          "threshold": 0
        },
        "reason_tested": "spot vs 3M sign",
        "status": "exploratory",
        "tags": [
          "useful_as_filter",
          "regime_dependent"
        ],
        "variant_id": "vix-backwardation.spot-minus-3m.threshold0.hold20"
      },
      "Candidate frontier": [
        {
          "category": "best_source_fidelity",
          "exploratory": true,
          "variant_id": "vix-backwardation.spot-minus-3m.threshold0.hold20"
        }
      ],
      "Data": {
        "inputs": [
          "VIX",
          "VIX3M",
          "SPY"
        ]
      },
      "Limitations": [
        "VIX3M pre-history may be synthetic; label as such."
      ],
      "Portfolio contribution": {},
      "Promotion status": "Not promoted \u2014 Research Library only.",
      "Research questions": [
        "Is VIX > VIX3M useful as risk-off, exit, or overlay after synthetic history is labeled?"
      ],
      "Rules actually disclosed": [
        "Backwardation when spot VIX exceeds VIX3M."
      ],
      "Source": {
        "kind": "term_structure",
        "prior_experiments": [
          "qm-4bx.15"
        ]
      },
      "Suggested next research": [
        "Curve ensemble vs simple spread."
      ],
      "Summary": [
        "Prior sleeve was investigate-only; keep playable in Research Library."
      ],
      "Trial ledger": [
        {
          "iteration_number": 1,
          "objective": "initial source exploration"
        }
      ],
      "Validation protocol": {},
      "What had to be inferred": [
        "SMA/quantile variants from prior sleeve work."
      ],
      "What the source claims": [
        "Backwardation when spot VIX exceeds VIX3M.",
        "SMA/quantile variants from prior sleeve work."
      ],
      "What to try interactively": [
        {
          "default": 0,
          "name": "threshold",
          "type": "float"
        }
      ]
    },
    "title": "VIX Backwardation \u2014 exploratory campaign"
  },
  "campaign": {
    "campaign_id": "vix-backwardation",
    "iteration_number": 1,
    "research_tags": [
      "useful_as_filter",
      "regime_dependent",
      "needs_more_research"
    ],
    "status": "awaiting_research_feedback",
    "title": "VIX Backwardation \u2014 exploratory campaign"
  },
  "candidate_frontier": [
    {
      "category": "best_source_fidelity",
      "exploratory": true,
      "variant_id": "vix-backwardation.spot-minus-3m.threshold0.hold20"
    }
  ],
  "candidate_variants": [
    {
      "created_by": "source_baseline",
      "family_id": "vix-backwardation",
      "metrics": {
        "label": "exploratory"
      },
      "parameters": {
        "holding_period": 20,
        "threshold": 0
      },
      "reason_tested": "spot vs 3M sign",
      "status": "exploratory",
      "tags": [
        "useful_as_filter",
        "regime_dependent"
      ],
      "variant_id": "vix-backwardation.spot-minus-3m.threshold0.hold20"
    }
  ],
  "event_tables": [],
  "evidence": {},
  "execution_assumptions": {},
  "interactive_specs": [
    {
      "default": 0,
      "name": "threshold",
      "type": "float"
    }
  ],
  "limitations": [
    "VIX3M pre-history may be synthetic; label as such."
  ],
  "parameter_grids": [],
  "provenance": {
    "inputs": [
      "VIX",
      "VIX3M",
      "SPY"
    ]
  },
  "regime_tables": [],
  "schema_version": "research-publication/v1",
  "series": {
    "availability": "unavailable",
    "dates": [],
    "reason": "No reproducible underlying price and signal-input series are published for this expression."
  },
  "signals": {
    "spec": null,
    "specs": []
  },
  "trial_ledger": []
}