{
  "article": {
    "official_admission": false,
    "required_headings": [
      "Summary",
      "Source",
      "What the source claims",
      "Rules actually disclosed",
      "What had to be inferred",
      "Research questions",
      "Data",
      "Baseline implementation",
      "What the signal looks like",
      "Historical events",
      "State-space exploration",
      "Parameter sensitivity",
      "What worked",
      "What did not work",
      "Why the failures appear to happen",
      "Regime behavior",
      "Timing and cost sensitivity",
      "Combinations",
      "Candidate frontier",
      "Agent assessment",
      "Limitations",
      "What to try interactively",
      "Suggested next research",
      "Promotion status",
      "Trial ledger",
      "Validation protocol",
      "Portfolio contribution"
    ],
    "research_tags": [
      "data_limited",
      "fidelity_mismatch",
      "interesting_negative_result",
      "needs_more_research",
      "parameter_sensitive",
      "regime_dependent",
      "predictive_not_tradable",
      "useful_as_portfolio_overlay",
      "candidate_for_confirmation",
      "structurally_interesting"
    ],
    "sections": {
      "Baseline implementation": {
        "created_by": "inferred_best_guess",
        "family_id": "weighted-growth",
        "metrics": {
          "annualized_return": 0.05135,
          "cumulative_return": 2.312456,
          "max_drawdown": -0.256909,
          "risk_off_rate": 0.43074,
          "sharpe": 0.440654
        },
        "parameters": {
          "holding_period": 1,
          "lag_bars": 1,
          "lookback": 6,
          "threshold": 0.0
        },
        "reason_tested": "Shortest helper-grid lookback with primary one-available-week causal lag.",
        "status": "exploratory",
        "tags": [
          "interesting_negative_result",
          "parameter_sensitive"
        ],
        "variant_id": "wlei_proxy_v1"
      },
      "Candidate frontier": [
        {
          "category": "best_return",
          "exploratory": true,
          "reason": "Highest causal overlay return in this proxy grid, but speculative and not source-faithful.",
          "variant_id": "wlei_proxy_v4"
        },
        {
          "category": "best_sharpe",
          "exploratory": true,
          "reason": "Highest causal Sharpe in this grid, with large drawdown and sparse events.",
          "variant_id": "wlei_proxy_v4"
        },
        {
          "category": "lowest_drawdown",
          "exploratory": true,
          "reason": "Lowest maximum drawdown among causal variants, offset by frequent switching and low return.",
          "variant_id": "wlei_proxy_v1"
        },
        {
          "category": "best_long_history",
          "exploratory": true,
          "reason": "Uses the broad proxy history with the simplest causal formulation.",
          "variant_id": "wlei_proxy_v1"
        },
        {
          "category": "simplest_reasonable",
          "exploratory": true,
          "reason": "Transparent middle-lookback weighted-growth neighbor with fewer state changes.",
          "variant_id": "wlei_proxy_v2"
        },
        {
          "category": "best_source_fidelity",
          "exploratory": true,
          "reason": "Closest transparent weekly-growth analogue while explicitly rejecting native-equivalence claims.",
          "variant_id": "wlei_proxy_v1"
        }
      ],
      "Data": {
        "canonical_sha256": "sha256:e81b7ab63069f9cbc94b4a57a526b55b69c32580e11801b1b2a09ba8f806f9fe",
        "canonical_snapshot": "data/recessionalert.sqlite pages row for https://recessionalert.com/a-u-s-weekly-leading-economic-index/",
        "native_spans": "WLEI native numeric series unavailable; proxy inputs span 1919-01/2026-08 and broad display window spans 1993-01-29/2026-06-05",
        "proxy_data": "data/market.sqlite read-only FRED INDPRO/UNRATE/GS10/BAA10Y and Yahoo SPY/IEF snapshots",
        "publication_lag": "Source claims at most one week and Thursday afternoon; primary proxy execution uses one available weekly bar; same-close is research-only.",
        "redistribution": "Publish derived proxy values, metadata, metrics, and summaries only; no cached RecessionAlert HTML, chart/image bytes, workbook bytes, credentials, cookies, or private account data.",
        "revision_policy": "Checked-in snapshots are fixed for this campaign; macro vintage/revision history is not preserved and no live refresh is performed."
      },
      "Limitations": [
        "Native WLEI observations, component membership, formula, weighting, normalization, score range, and source-backed buy/sell mapping are unavailable.",
        "Monthly FRED proxies are carried forward to Friday display bars; this frequency relaxation is explicit and does not reproduce a native weekly release process.",
        "FRED/Yahoo snapshots lack complete point-in-time vintage and release metadata, so causal timing is conservatively represented by a one-available-week execution lag.",
        "The SPY/IEF overlay window starts in 2002 because IEF is unavailable earlier; signal histories are longer but cannot be interpreted as investable overlays without a risk-off sleeve.",
        "The diffusion threshold trial is degenerate and the acceleration result is speculative; no proxy result is an official RecessionAlert WLEI result or catalog admission.",
        "RecessionAlert workbook assets on a separate page are not source-linked to this row and were not merged."
      ],
      "Portfolio contribution": {},
      "Promotion status": "Not promoted \u2014 Research Library only.",
      "Research questions": [
        "Can the incomplete RecessionAlert WLEI concept yield a transparent causal exploratory proxy campaign from the longest defensible offline public history without claiming native source fidelity?"
      ],
      "Rules actually disclosed": [
        "The cached article describes a U.S. Weekly Leading Economic Index (WLEI) built from more than 20 weekly time series across Corporate Bond, Treasury Bond, Stock Market, Labor Market, Credit Market, and mortgage-backed securities categories.",
        "The article calls WLEI a weekly growth index, says data have at most a one-week lag, and says it is published on Thursday afternoons about 18 hours before the ECRI Weekly Leading Index.",
        "The article gives no source-linked observations, exact component membership, transformation, weights, normalization, lookback, threshold, persistence, state mapping, buy/sell rule, target, sizing, or release vintage policy."
      ],
      "Source": {
        "content_length": 86958,
        "database_path": "data/recessionalert.sqlite",
        "fetched_at": "2026-08-22T23:45:27Z",
        "inventory_path": "research/findings/recessionalert_inventory.md",
        "kind": "RecessionAlert inventory row",
        "manifest_path": "research/artifacts/recessionalert/manifest.json",
        "native_span": "One dated narrative HTML article; no source-linked WLEI observation span",
        "publication_lag": "Article claims at most one week of input lag and Thursday-afternoon publication; exact point-in-time release is unknown",
        "published_at": "2016-02-23T16:01:55-0500",
        "redacted_url": "https://recessionalert.com/a-u-s-weekly-leading-economic-index/",
        "sha256": "sha256:e81b7ab63069f9cbc94b4a57a526b55b69c32580e11801b1b2a09ba8f806f9fe",
        "title": "A U.S Weekly Leading Economic Index | RecessionAlert"
      },
      "Suggested next research": [
        "Can an authorized refresh provide source-linked WLEI observations, exact component membership, and vintage history for this exact row?",
        "Can the Thursday release clock and one-week input lag be confirmed from recurring point-in-time public releases?",
        "Does the v4 acceleration hypothesis survive an untouched-period test with independently versioned data and realistic costs?",
        "What source-backed threshold, state machine, and portfolio action semantics were actually intended?",
        "Can a constituent-level public reconstruction span all six named categories without claiming native parity?"
      ],
      "Summary": [
        "The source-backed result is a documented weekly macro growth-index concept, not a playable native indicator: exact observations, formula, threshold, action mapping, native span, and recurring point-in-time release are absent.",
        "Best-effort exploration used checked-in FRED/Yahoo proxy snapshots and a 1993-01-29 to 2026-06-05 weekly display window; the SPY/IEF overlay comparison begins 2002-08-09 because IEF starts then.",
        "Five inferred/proxy variants were executed. Causal weighted variants trail same-window SPY, diffusion is degenerate at its tested threshold, acceleration is interesting but speculative and drawdown-heavy, and same-close gains are non-causal.",
        "This publication preserves the negative, degenerate, timing-sensitive, and candidate results as exploratory evidence; it does not change the native RecessionAlert registry or claim WLEI fidelity."
      ],
      "Trial ledger": [
        {
          "iteration_number": 1,
          "objective": "offline best-effort proxy exploration, diagnostics, and public synthesis"
        }
      ],
      "Validation protocol": {},
      "What had to be inferred": [
        "For best-effort exploration, checked-in FRED INDPRO, UNRATE, GS10, and BAA10Y are directionally signed and aligned to Friday bars as a transparent broad proxy; no input is claimed to be a native WLEI component.",
        "Weighted growth, component diffusion, second-difference acceleration, and SPY/IEF risk overlays with explicit lag/lookback/threshold choices are exploratory extensions, not disclosed RecessionAlert rules."
      ],
      "What the source claims": [
        "The cached article describes a U.S. Weekly Leading Economic Index (WLEI) built from more than 20 weekly time series across Corporate Bond, Treasury Bond, Stock Market, Labor Market, Credit Market, and mortgage-backed securities categories.",
        "The article calls WLEI a weekly growth index, says data have at most a one-week lag, and says it is published on Thursday afternoons about 18 hours before the ECRI Weekly Leading Index.",
        "The article gives no source-linked observations, exact component membership, transformation, weights, normalization, lookback, threshold, persistence, state mapping, buy/sell rule, target, sizing, or release vintage policy.",
        "For best-effort exploration, checked-in FRED INDPRO, UNRATE, GS10, and BAA10Y are directionally signed and aligned to Friday bars as a transparent broad proxy; no input is claimed to be a native WLEI component.",
        "Weighted growth, component diffusion, second-difference acceleration, and SPY/IEF risk overlays with explicit lag/lookback/threshold choices are exploratory extensions, not disclosed RecessionAlert rules."
      ],
      "What to try interactively": [
        {
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            0.0,
            0.5
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          "type": "float"
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        {
          "default": 1,
          "name": "holding_period",
          "options": [
            1,
            3
          ],
          "type": "integer"
        },
        {
          "default": "fixed_holding_period",
          "name": "exit",
          "options": [
            "fixed_holding_period",
            "price < sma50",
            "price < sma200"
          ],
          "type": "enum"
        }
      ]
    },
    "title": "RecessionAlert Weekly Leading Economic Index: exploratory proxy campaign"
  },
  "campaign": {
    "campaign_id": "recessionalert-wlei-1348",
    "iteration_number": 1,
    "research_tags": [
      "data_limited",
      "fidelity_mismatch",
      "interesting_negative_result",
      "needs_more_research",
      "parameter_sensitive",
      "regime_dependent",
      "predictive_not_tradable",
      "useful_as_portfolio_overlay",
      "candidate_for_confirmation",
      "structurally_interesting"
    ],
    "status": "published",
    "title": "RecessionAlert Weekly Leading Economic Index: exploratory proxy campaign"
  },
  "candidate_frontier": [
    {
      "category": "best_return",
      "exploratory": true,
      "reason": "Highest causal overlay return in this proxy grid, but speculative and not source-faithful.",
      "variant_id": "wlei_proxy_v4"
    },
    {
      "category": "best_sharpe",
      "exploratory": true,
      "reason": "Highest causal Sharpe in this grid, with large drawdown and sparse events.",
      "variant_id": "wlei_proxy_v4"
    },
    {
      "category": "lowest_drawdown",
      "exploratory": true,
      "reason": "Lowest maximum drawdown among causal variants, offset by frequent switching and low return.",
      "variant_id": "wlei_proxy_v1"
    },
    {
      "category": "best_long_history",
      "exploratory": true,
      "reason": "Uses the broad proxy history with the simplest causal formulation.",
      "variant_id": "wlei_proxy_v1"
    },
    {
      "category": "simplest_reasonable",
      "exploratory": true,
      "reason": "Transparent middle-lookback weighted-growth neighbor with fewer state changes.",
      "variant_id": "wlei_proxy_v2"
    },
    {
      "category": "best_source_fidelity",
      "exploratory": true,
      "reason": "Closest transparent weekly-growth analogue while explicitly rejecting native-equivalence claims.",
      "variant_id": "wlei_proxy_v1"
    }
  ],
  "candidate_variants": [
    {
      "created_by": "inferred_best_guess",
      "family_id": "weighted-growth",
      "metrics": {
        "annualized_return": 0.05135,
        "cumulative_return": 2.312456,
        "max_drawdown": -0.256909,
        "risk_off_rate": 0.43074,
        "sharpe": 0.440654
      },
      "parameters": {
        "holding_period": 1,
        "lag_bars": 1,
        "lookback": 6,
        "threshold": 0.0
      },
      "reason_tested": "Shortest helper-grid lookback with primary one-available-week causal lag.",
      "status": "exploratory",
      "tags": [
        "interesting_negative_result",
        "parameter_sensitive"
      ],
      "variant_id": "wlei_proxy_v1"
    },
    {
      "created_by": "inferred_nearby_variant",
      "family_id": "weighted-growth",
      "metrics": {
        "annualized_return": 0.087124,
        "cumulative_return": 6.374206,
        "max_drawdown": -0.365011,
        "risk_off_rate": 0.08967,
        "sharpe": 0.592723
      },
      "parameters": {
        "holding_period": 1,
        "lag_bars": 1,
        "lookback": 12,
        "threshold": -0.5
      },
      "reason_tested": "Medium lookback and nearby weak threshold with causal lag.",
      "status": "exploratory",
      "tags": [
        "interesting_negative_result",
        "parameter_sensitive"
      ],
      "variant_id": "wlei_proxy_v2"
    },
    {
      "created_by": "inferred_nearby_variant",
      "family_id": "diffusion",
      "metrics": {
        "annualized_return": 0.035117,
        "cumulative_return": 1.278541,
        "max_drawdown": -0.232555,
        "risk_off_rate": 1.0,
        "sharpe": 0.543476
      },
      "parameters": {
        "holding_period": 1,
        "lag_bars": 2,
        "lookback": 21,
        "threshold": 0.5
      },
      "reason_tested": "Longer breadth lookback and conservative extra lag.",
      "status": "exploratory_failed",
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      "variant_id": "wlei_proxy_v3"
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    {
      "created_by": "inferred_speculative_extension",
      "family_id": "acceleration",
      "metrics": {
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        "cumulative_return": 12.910907,
        "max_drawdown": -0.513137,
        "risk_off_rate": 0.01761,
        "sharpe": 0.698437
      },
      "parameters": {
        "holding_period": 1,
        "lag_bars": 1,
        "lookback": 12,
        "threshold": -0.5
      },
      "reason_tested": "Second-difference sensitivity implied by growth emphasis; causal lag retained.",
      "status": "exploratory_candidate",
      "tags": [
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        "needs_more_research"
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      "variant_id": "wlei_proxy_v4"
    },
    {
      "created_by": "inferred_timing_sensitivity",
      "family_id": "weighted-growth",
      "metrics": {
        "annualized_return": 0.100659,
        "cumulative_return": 8.895772,
        "max_drawdown": -0.298604,
        "risk_off_rate": 0.43109,
        "sharpe": 0.877447
      },
      "parameters": {
        "holding_period": 1,
        "lag_bars": 0,
        "lookback": 6,
        "threshold": 0.0
      },
      "reason_tested": "Explicit same-close sensitivity to expose lookahead impact; never used as the causal baseline.",
      "status": "research_only",
      "tags": [
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        "fidelity_mismatch"
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      "variant_id": "wlei_proxy_same_close_sensitivity"
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  "event_tables": [],
  "evidence": {},
  "execution_assumptions": {},
  "interactive_specs": [
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      "options": [
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    {
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      "options": [
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      "type": "enum"
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  ],
  "limitations": [
    "Native WLEI observations, component membership, formula, weighting, normalization, score range, and source-backed buy/sell mapping are unavailable.",
    "Monthly FRED proxies are carried forward to Friday display bars; this frequency relaxation is explicit and does not reproduce a native weekly release process.",
    "FRED/Yahoo snapshots lack complete point-in-time vintage and release metadata, so causal timing is conservatively represented by a one-available-week execution lag.",
    "The SPY/IEF overlay window starts in 2002 because IEF is unavailable earlier; signal histories are longer but cannot be interpreted as investable overlays without a risk-off sleeve.",
    "The diffusion threshold trial is degenerate and the acceleration result is speculative; no proxy result is an official RecessionAlert WLEI result or catalog admission.",
    "RecessionAlert workbook assets on a separate page are not source-linked to this row and were not merged."
  ],
  "parameter_grids": [],
  "provenance": {
    "canonical_sha256": "sha256:e81b7ab63069f9cbc94b4a57a526b55b69c32580e11801b1b2a09ba8f806f9fe",
    "canonical_snapshot": "data/recessionalert.sqlite pages row for https://recessionalert.com/a-u-s-weekly-leading-economic-index/",
    "native_spans": "WLEI native numeric series unavailable; proxy inputs span 1919-01/2026-08 and broad display window spans 1993-01-29/2026-06-05",
    "proxy_data": "data/market.sqlite read-only FRED INDPRO/UNRATE/GS10/BAA10Y and Yahoo SPY/IEF snapshots",
    "publication_lag": "Source claims at most one week and Thursday afternoon; primary proxy execution uses one available weekly bar; same-close is research-only.",
    "redistribution": "Publish derived proxy values, metadata, metrics, and summaries only; no cached RecessionAlert HTML, chart/image bytes, workbook bytes, credentials, cookies, or private account data.",
    "revision_policy": "Checked-in snapshots are fixed for this campaign; macro vintage/revision history is not preserved and no live refresh is performed."
  },
  "regime_tables": [],
  "schema_version": "research-publication/v1",
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      "2022-09-23",
      "2022-09-30",
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      "2022-10-21",
      "2022-10-28",
      "2022-11-04",
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      "2022-11-18",
      "2022-11-25",
      "2022-12-02",
      "2022-12-09",
      "2022-12-16",
      "2022-12-23",
      "2022-12-30",
      "2023-01-06",
      "2023-01-13",
      "2023-01-20",
      "2023-01-27",
      "2023-02-03",
      "2023-02-10",
      "2023-02-17",
      "2023-02-24",
      "2023-03-03",
      "2023-03-10",
      "2023-03-17",
      "2023-03-24",
      "2023-03-31",
      "2023-04-07",
      "2023-04-14",
      "2023-04-21",
      "2023-04-28",
      "2023-05-05",
      "2023-05-12",
      "2023-05-19",
      "2023-05-26",
      "2023-06-02",
      "2023-06-09",
      "2023-06-16",
      "2023-06-23",
      "2023-06-30",
      "2023-07-07",
      "2023-07-14",
      "2023-07-21",
      "2023-07-28",
      "2023-08-04",
      "2023-08-11",
      "2023-08-18",
      "2023-08-25",
      "2023-09-01",
      "2023-09-08",
      "2023-09-15",
      "2023-09-22",
      "2023-09-29",
      "2023-10-06",
      "2023-10-13",
      "2023-10-20",
      "2023-10-27",
      "2023-11-03",
      "2023-11-10",
      "2023-11-17",
      "2023-11-24",
      "2023-12-01",
      "2023-12-08",
      "2023-12-15",
      "2023-12-22",
      "2023-12-29",
      "2024-01-05",
      "2024-01-12",
      "2024-01-19",
      "2024-01-26",
      "2024-02-02",
      "2024-02-09",
      "2024-02-16",
      "2024-02-23",
      "2024-03-01",
      "2024-03-08",
      "2024-03-15",
      "2024-03-22",
      "2024-03-29",
      "2024-04-05",
      "2024-04-12",
      "2024-04-19",
      "2024-04-26",
      "2024-05-03",
      "2024-05-10",
      "2024-05-17",
      "2024-05-24",
      "2024-05-31",
      "2024-06-07",
      "2024-06-14",
      "2024-06-21",
      "2024-06-28",
      "2024-07-05",
      "2024-07-12",
      "2024-07-19",
      "2024-07-26",
      "2024-08-02",
      "2024-08-09",
      "2024-08-16",
      "2024-08-23",
      "2024-08-30",
      "2024-09-06",
      "2024-09-13",
      "2024-09-20",
      "2024-09-27",
      "2024-10-04",
      "2024-10-11",
      "2024-10-18",
      "2024-10-25",
      "2024-11-01",
      "2024-11-08",
      "2024-11-15",
      "2024-11-22",
      "2024-11-29",
      "2024-12-06",
      "2024-12-13",
      "2024-12-20",
      "2024-12-27",
      "2025-01-03",
      "2025-01-10",
      "2025-01-17",
      "2025-01-24",
      "2025-01-31",
      "2025-02-07",
      "2025-02-14",
      "2025-02-21",
      "2025-02-28",
      "2025-03-07",
      "2025-03-14",
      "2025-03-21",
      "2025-03-28",
      "2025-04-04",
      "2025-04-11",
      "2025-04-18",
      "2025-04-25",
      "2025-05-02",
      "2025-05-09",
      "2025-05-16",
      "2025-05-23",
      "2025-05-30",
      "2025-06-06",
      "2025-06-13",
      "2025-06-20",
      "2025-06-27",
      "2025-07-04",
      "2025-07-11",
      "2025-07-18",
      "2025-07-25",
      "2025-08-01",
      "2025-08-08",
      "2025-08-15",
      "2025-08-22",
      "2025-08-29",
      "2025-09-05",
      "2025-09-12",
      "2025-09-19",
      "2025-09-26",
      "2025-10-03",
      "2025-10-10",
      "2025-10-17",
      "2025-10-24",
      "2025-10-31",
      "2025-11-07",
      "2025-11-14",
      "2025-11-21",
      "2025-11-28",
      "2025-12-05",
      "2025-12-12",
      "2025-12-19",
      "2025-12-26",
      "2026-01-02",
      "2026-01-09",
      "2026-01-16",
      "2026-01-23",
      "2026-01-30",
      "2026-02-06",
      "2026-02-13",
      "2026-02-20",
      "2026-02-27",
      "2026-03-06",
      "2026-03-13",
      "2026-03-20",
      "2026-03-27",
      "2026-04-03",
      "2026-04-10",
      "2026-04-17",
      "2026-04-24",
      "2026-05-01",
      "2026-05-08",
      "2026-05-15",
      "2026-05-22",
      "2026-05-29",
      "2026-06-05"
    ],
    "frequency": "weekly",
    "provenance": {
      "canonical_recessionalert_wlei": "sha256:e81b7ab63069f9cbc94b4a57a526b55b69c32580e11801b1b2a09ba8f806f9fe",
      "causal_policy": "Weekly display values use dated observations and overlays require one available weekly bar; same-close is research-only.",
      "native_span": "No source-linked native WLEI observations; derived display window 1993-01-29/2026-06-05.",
      "proxy_sources": [
        "FRED INDPRO",
        "FRED UNRATE",
        "FRED GS10",
        "FRED BAA10Y",
        "Yahoo SPY",
        "Yahoo IEF"
      ],
      "public_boundary": "Derived proxy values and metrics only; no cached source HTML, workbook bytes, credentials, cookies, or private account data."
    },
    "schema_version": "recessionalert-lab-series/v1",
    "source": "Derived from checked-in FRED/Yahoo snapshots in data/market.sqlite; loaded read-only."
  },
  "signals": {
    "spec": {
      "description": "Equal-weight signed weekly-growth proxy; not native RecessionAlert WLEI.",
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        "type": "ratio"
      },
      "id": "recessionalert-1348-weighted_growth-proxy-lb6-lag1",
      "inputs": [
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      "name": "Issue 1348 inferred WLEI weighted_growth proxy (exploratory only)",
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      },
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        "family": "weighted_growth",
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        "preprocessing": "frequency-relaxed end-of-week resampling; monthly values carried forward only after dated observation",
        "same_close": "not_used",
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      "trigger": {
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    "specs": [
      {
        "description": "Equal-weight signed weekly-growth proxy; not native RecessionAlert WLEI.",
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        "name": "Issue 1348 inferred WLEI weighted_growth proxy (exploratory only)",
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      {
        "description": "Equal-weight signed weekly-growth proxy; not native RecessionAlert WLEI.",
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        "inputs": [
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        "name": "Issue 1348 inferred WLEI weighted_growth proxy (exploratory only)",
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      },
      {
        "description": "Component breadth/diffusion proxy; not native RecessionAlert WLEI Diffusion.",
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        "inputs": [
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          "BAA10Y"
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        "name": "Issue 1348 inferred WLEI diffusion proxy (exploratory only)",
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      },
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                          "type": "roc",
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                      {
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                              "type": "roc",
                              "window": 1
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                        },
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                      },
                      {
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                      {
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                      }
                    ],
                    "type": "sum"
                  },
                  "type": "ratio"
                },
                "type": "shift"
              },
              "type": "difference"
            },
            "type": "shift"
          },
          "type": "difference"
        },
        "id": "recessionalert-1348-acceleration-proxy-lb12-lag1",
        "inputs": [
          "INDPRO",
          "UNRATE",
          "GS10",
          "BAA10Y"
        ],
        "name": "Issue 1348 inferred WLEI acceleration proxy (exploratory only)",
        "parameters": {
          "threshold": {
            "default": -0.5,
            "type": "float"
          }
        },
        "schema_version": "signal-spec/v1",
        "semantics": {
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          "exploratory": true,
          "family": "acceleration",
          "lag_bars": 1,
          "lookback": 12,
          "missing_state": "unavailable",
          "preprocessing": "frequency-relaxed end-of-week resampling; monthly values carried forward only after dated observation",
          "same_close": "not_used",
          "side": "warning_or_risk_off_below_threshold",
          "source_sha256": "sha256:e81b7ab63069f9cbc94b4a57a526b55b69c32580e11801b1b2a09ba8f806f9fe",
          "source_url": "https://recessionalert.com/a-u-s-weekly-leading-economic-index/"
        },
        "trigger": {
          "left": "signal_value",
          "operator": "<",
          "right": "threshold"
        }
      },
      {
        "description": "Equal-weight signed weekly-growth proxy; not native RecessionAlert WLEI.",
        "expression": {
          "denominator": 4.0,
          "numerator": {
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                "type": "sma",
                "window": 6
              },
              {
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                },
                "type": "sma",
                "window": 6
              }
            ],
            "type": "sum"
          },
          "type": "ratio"
        },
        "id": "recessionalert-1348-weighted_growth-proxy-lb6-lag0",
        "inputs": [
          "INDPRO",
          "UNRATE",
          "GS10",
          "BAA10Y"
        ],
        "name": "Issue 1348 inferred WLEI weighted_growth proxy (exploratory only)",
        "parameters": {
          "threshold": {
            "default": 0.0,
            "type": "float"
          }
        },
        "schema_version": "signal-spec/v1",
        "semantics": {
          "claim_kind": "inferred",
          "exploratory": true,
          "family": "weighted_growth",
          "lag_bars": 0,
          "lookback": 6,
          "missing_state": "unavailable",
          "preprocessing": "frequency-relaxed end-of-week resampling; monthly values carried forward only after dated observation",
          "same_close": "research_only_sensitivity",
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          "source_url": "https://recessionalert.com/a-u-s-weekly-leading-economic-index/"
        },
        "trigger": {
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          "operator": "<",
          "right": "threshold"
        }
      }
    ]
  },
  "trial_ledger": []
}