{ "article": { "official_admission": false, "required_headings": [ "Summary", "Source", "What the source claims", "Rules actually disclosed", "What had to be inferred", "Research questions", "Data", "Baseline implementation", "What the signal looks like", "Historical events", "State-space exploration", "Parameter sensitivity", "What worked", "What did not work", "Why the failures appear to happen", "Regime behavior", "Timing and cost sensitivity", "Combinations", "Candidate frontier", "Agent assessment", "Limitations", "What to try interactively", "Suggested next research", "Promotion status", "Trial ledger", "Validation protocol", "Portfolio contribution" ], "research_tags": [ "data_limited", "fidelity_mismatch", "regime_dependent", "useful_as_portfolio_overlay", "needs_more_research" ], "sections": { "Agent assessment": [ "Disposition exploratory_tested_proxy under Other/Research.", "Explicit NO-GO for native RAVI fidelity or playable Indicator promotion." ], "Baseline implementation": { "claim_kind": "inferred", "claim_role": "causal_primary", "exploratory": true, "family": "ravi-distance-to-target-proxy", "id": "d2t_spy_lb36_lag1_t0", "lag_bars": 1, "lookback": 36, "metrics": { "cagr": 0.05554672094317992, "end": "2026-07-31", "max_drawdown": -0.36883909557997563, "n_months": 365, "risk_off_events": 181, "risk_on_share": 0.4575342465753425, "sharpe": 0.4928827135827473, "start": "1996-03-31", "vol": 0.1261138186537049 }, "threshold": 0.0 }, "Candidate frontier": [ { "category": "simplest_reasonable", "claim_role": "causal_primary", "family": "best-effort-neighbor-grid", "id": "be_spy_lb12_lag1_t0", "interpretation": "Exploratory causal variant; public proxy or related opaque workbook overlay, not native RAVI parity.", "lag_bars": 1, "lookback": 12, "metrics": { "cagr": 0.11555697755473071, "end": "2026-07-31", "max_drawdown": -0.19336384497374537, "n_months": 391, "risk_off_events": 37, "risk_on_share": 0.782608695652174, "sharpe": 1.0313402234501794, "start": "1994-01-31", "vol": 0.11265445638344454 }, "threshold": 0.0 }, { "category": "best_source_fidelity", "claim_role": "causal_primary", "family": "related-workbook-ravi-signal-overlay", "id": "wb_2yrfc_gt0_lag1", "interpretation": "Exploratory causal variant; public proxy or related opaque workbook overlay, not native RAVI parity.", "lag_bars": 1, "lookback": 60, "metrics": { "cagr": 0.10895532549962539, "end": "2026-07-31", "max_drawdown": -0.28008927348730106, "n_months": 366, "risk_off_events": 22, "risk_on_share": 0.5601092896174863, "sharpe": 0.9694271310516288, "start": "1996-02-29", "vol": 0.11375776541426312 }, "threshold": 0.0 }, { "category": "best_sharpe", "claim_role": "causal_primary", "family": "best-effort-neighbor-grid", "id": "be_spy_lb36_lag1_tneg05", "interpretation": "Exploratory causal variant; public proxy or related opaque workbook overlay, not native RAVI parity.", "lag_bars": 1, "lookback": 36, "metrics": { "cagr": 0.11302287341976491, "end": "2026-07-31", "max_drawdown": -0.25795458391489734, "n_months": 367, "risk_off_events": 9, "risk_on_share": 0.8910081743869209, "sharpe": 0.8580095319488719, "start": "1996-01-31", "vol": 0.13615833783719192 }, "threshold": -0.5 }, { "category": "best_sharpe", "claim_role": "causal_primary", "family": "related-workbook-ravi-signal-overlay", "id": "wb_signal_gt0_lag1", "interpretation": "Exploratory causal variant; public proxy or related opaque workbook overlay, not native RAVI parity.", "lag_bars": 1, "lookback": 60, "metrics": { "cagr": 0.09246729782204288, "end": "2026-07-31", "max_drawdown": -0.363890498501624, "n_months": 354, "risk_off_events": 14, "risk_on_share": 0.5706214689265536, "sharpe": 0.7973246892756138, "start": "1997-02-28", "vol": 0.12043038337901668 }, "threshold": 0.0 }, { "category": "best_sharpe", "claim_role": "causal_primary", "family": "best-effort-neighbor-grid", "id": "be_spy_lb60_lag2_t05", "interpretation": "Exploratory causal variant; public proxy or related opaque workbook overlay, not native RAVI parity.", "lag_bars": 2, "lookback": 60, "metrics": { "cagr": 0.09393529255330924, "end": "2026-07-31", "max_drawdown": -0.23927178828328322, "n_months": 342, "risk_off_events": 13, "risk_on_share": 0.7748538011695907, "sharpe": 0.7578437805456412, "start": "1998-02-28", "vol": 0.13008199931541223 }, "threshold": 0.5 }, { "category": "best_sharpe", "claim_role": "causal_primary", "family": "related-workbook-ravi-signal-overlay", "id": "wb_signal_gt0_lag2", "interpretation": "Exploratory causal variant; public proxy or related opaque workbook overlay, not native RAVI parity.", "lag_bars": 2, "lookback": 60, "metrics": { "cagr": 0.08262836385086803, "end": "2026-07-31", "max_drawdown": -0.28008927348730095, "n_months": 353, "risk_off_events": 14, "risk_on_share": 0.5722379603399433, "sharpe": 0.738451017226608, "start": "1997-03-31", "vol": 0.11716210819469056 }, "threshold": 0.0 } ], "Combinations": [ { "families_tested": [ "ravi-distance-to-target-proxy", "valuation-zscore-risk-off", "short-term-risk-zone-proxy", "liquidity-tailwind-overlay", "coincident-smoothed-forecast-proxy", "best-effort-neighbor-grid", "related-workbook-ravi-signal-overlay" ], "n_causal": 22, "n_control": 6, "n_trials": 28, "note": "Families were compared as separate SPY/IEF overlays. No blended rule is promoted because common-sample and out-of-sample combination tests remain undone." } ], "Data": { "causal_policy": "lag>=1 causal_primary; lag0 control_only", "database": "data/market.sqlite + data/recessionalert.sqlite opened read-only", "page_sha256": "sha256:741dea1c37744aeaf1b62dce5eddfe43d7d6ac47611ee5f45c967d272da57bef", "panel": "1993-01-31..2026-07-31 (403 month-end rows)", "workbook_sha256": "sha256:435d142f7e8851a740c78a3d24db6bb15930b21a861cb5520d0a494e6575dced" }, "Historical events": [ "GFC, calendar-2020 COVID, 2022 inflation, and 2023+ slices are reported for be_spy_lb12_lag1_t0." ], "Limitations": [ "Native RAVI formulas, weights, executable thresholds, and publication clock are undisclosed.", "PART-3 has no on-row workbook or chart asset SHA256; the workbook is a related off-row object.", "CAPE, Buffett Indicator, and Tobin's Q are unavailable in the offline market database.", "Public SPY/CPI/WALCL proxies and opaque workbook forecasts cannot establish native RAVI parity.", "Lag-0 variants are non-causal controls and must not support claims.", "Backtests omit transaction costs, taxes, and an executable hedge specification." ], "Parameter sensitivity": [ "Lags 0/1/2 and lookbacks 12/24/36/60 were tested; timing sensitivity is reported on the representative trend family." ], "Portfolio contribution": {}, "Promotion status": "Not promoted \u2014 Research Library only. Native RAVI fidelity is NO-GO.", "Regime behavior": [ { "covid": { "cagr": 0.19504546924369448, "max_drawdown": -0.07916566333452868, "n_months": 12, "sharpe": 1.0990143728889123 }, "gfc": { "cagr": 0.034066759647187084, "max_drawdown": -0.06652293466602999, "n_months": 21, "sharpe": 0.37949209386896005 }, "inflation_2022": { "cagr": -0.1766630007562896, "max_drawdown": -0.15434130538895718, "n_months": 12, "sharpe": -1.3795369795772205 }, "recent": { "cagr": 0.19008108772055987, "max_drawdown": -0.08325836002549158, "n_months": 43, "sharpe": 1.4763759430802312 } } ], "Research questions": [ "Can public valuation, trend, and liquidity proxies plus lagged related RAVI forecasts provide a useful risk overlay when native PART-3 formulas are unavailable?" ], "Rules actually disclosed": [ "PART-3 measures valuation risk as distance from the current S&P 500 to multi-horizon RAVI-implied targets.", "The short-term RISK zone is the min/max of four one-year mechanisms, including annualized two- and three-year forecasts.", "Fed balance-sheet expansion is discussed as a valuation-risk tailwind, but no quantified liquidity rule is disclosed." ], "Source": { "fetched_at": "2026-08-22T23:47:52Z", "kind": "recessionalert_page", "sha256": "sha256:741dea1c37744aeaf1b62dce5eddfe43d7d6ac47611ee5f45c967d272da57bef", "title": "MODELS: Quantifying market valuation risk \u2013 PART 3 | RecessionAlert", "url": "https://recessionalert.com/quantifying-market-valuation-risk-part-3/" }, "State-space exploration": [ "28 variants across seven families; lag-0 controls retained but excluded from causal claims." ], "Suggested next research": [ "Can a source-linked RAVI formula, regression specification, or constituent weights be obtained with provenance?", "What was the historical publication timestamp and information cutoff for each workbook forecast?", "Do common-sample and walk-forward tests preserve the apparent edge of the workbook 2YR FC and simple SPY trend overlays?", "Would transaction costs, switching frictions, and alternative risk-off assets materially change the frontier?", "Can CAPE, Buffett Indicator, or Tobin's Q be added through a separately approved offline data import?" ], "Summary": [ "Executed 28 labeled variants across seven exploratory families.", "The simple lagged SPY trend proxy be_spy_lb12_lag1_t0 produced Sharpe 1.031.", "The lagged related-workbook 2YR FC overlay produced Sharpe 0.969, but the forecast is opaque and not source-linked on PART-3.", "Native RAVI fidelity is an explicit NO-GO; publication is Other/Research only." ], "Timing and cost sensitivity": [ "Lag-0 is non-causal; lag>=1 is required. Reported metrics do not include transaction costs or taxes." ], "Trial ledger": [ { "disposition": "exploratory_tested_proxy", "iteration": 1, "n_trials": 28 } ], "Validation protocol": {}, "What did not work": [ "Native RAVI reconstruction is impossible from the disclosed material.", "Several valuation-distance and forecast stand-ins were weak, degenerate, or highly regime-dependent." ], "What had to be inferred": [ "SPY/CPI real-price z-scores, SPY trend, WALCL growth, and lagged workbook forecasts are labeled exploratory stand-ins." ], "What the signal looks like": [ "Month-end SPY/IEF weights from lagged public valuation, trend, liquidity, and related-workbook forecast proxies.", "The primary public baseline is SPY above its 12-month SMA, executed one month later." ], "What the source claims": [ "PART-3 measures valuation risk as distance from the current S&P 500 to multi-horizon RAVI-implied targets.", "The short-term RISK zone is the min/max of four one-year mechanisms, including annualized two- and three-year forecasts.", "Fed balance-sheet expansion is discussed as a valuation-risk tailwind, but no quantified liquidity rule is disclosed.", "SPY/CPI real-price z-scores, SPY trend, WALCL growth, and lagged workbook forecasts are labeled exploratory stand-ins." ], "What to try interactively": [ { "name": "lag_bars", "note": "0 is control_only", "values": [ 0, 1, 2 ] }, { "name": "lookback", "values": [ 12, 24, 36, 60 ] }, { "name": "threshold", "values": [ -0.5, 0.0, 0.5 ] }, { "name": "workbook_column", "values": [ "SIGNAL", "2YR FC", "10YR FCAST", "5YR FC" ] } ], "What worked": [ "be_spy_lb12_lag1_t0 was a simple, long-history public-proxy frontier member.", "wb_2yrfc_gt0_lag1 was competitive, but its opaque related-workbook provenance prevents native claims." ], "Why the failures appear to happen": [ "PART-3 gives target-distance examples but omits the underlying RAVI regression and constituent weights.", "A public trend rule can be tradable without being a faithful valuation model." ] }, "title": "Quantifying market valuation risk \u2014 PART 3 | RecessionAlert \u2014 exploratory proxy campaign" }, "campaign": { "campaign_id": "recessionalert-valuation-risk-part3-1550", "iteration_number": 1, "research_tags": [ "data_limited", "fidelity_mismatch", "regime_dependent", "useful_as_portfolio_overlay", "needs_more_research" ], "status": "published", "title": "Quantifying market valuation risk \u2014 PART 3 | RecessionAlert \u2014 exploratory proxy campaign" }, "candidate_frontier": [ { "category": "simplest_reasonable", "claim_role": "causal_primary", "family": "best-effort-neighbor-grid", "id": "be_spy_lb12_lag1_t0", "interpretation": "Exploratory causal variant; public proxy or related opaque workbook overlay, not native RAVI parity.", "lag_bars": 1, "lookback": 12, "metrics": { "cagr": 0.11555697755473071, "end": "2026-07-31", "max_drawdown": -0.19336384497374537, "n_months": 391, "risk_off_events": 37, "risk_on_share": 0.782608695652174, 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