{
  "article": {
    "official_admission": false,
    "required_headings": [
      "Summary",
      "Source",
      "What the source claims",
      "Rules actually disclosed",
      "What had to be inferred",
      "Research questions",
      "Data",
      "Baseline implementation",
      "What the signal looks like",
      "Historical events",
      "State-space exploration",
      "Parameter sensitivity",
      "What worked",
      "What did not work",
      "Why the failures appear to happen",
      "Regime behavior",
      "Timing and cost sensitivity",
      "Combinations",
      "Candidate frontier",
      "Agent assessment",
      "Limitations",
      "What to try interactively",
      "Suggested next research",
      "Promotion status",
      "Trial ledger",
      "Validation protocol",
      "Portfolio contribution"
    ],
    "research_tags": [
      "data_limited",
      "fidelity_mismatch",
      "interesting_negative_result",
      "regime_dependent",
      "parameter_sensitive",
      "needs_more_research",
      "predictive_not_tradable",
      "useful_as_portfolio_overlay",
      "uninvestable"
    ],
    "sections": {
      "Agent assessment": [
        "Publish as exploratory Other / Research evidence. Do not register an official Other / Indicators signal."
      ],
      "Baseline implementation": [
        "Causal default lag is one available observation followed by next available trading bar. Lag zero appears only as a non-causal control. Missing values remain unavailable."
      ],
      "Candidate frontier": [
        {
          "category": "best_sharpe",
          "id": "standard-stress-lag1-lb12-t0",
          "interpretation": "Highest descriptive causal Sharpe (1.177) and 10.86% CAGR; inferred BAA10Y/VIX/WALCL stress analogue, not MCOS/ALIX parity."
        },
        {
          "category": "best_crash_protection",
          "id": "standard-percentile-lag2-lb21-t95",
          "interpretation": "Lowest raw max drawdown among causal candidates (-13.76%) but only 61 effective return observations and 7.20% SPY exposure."
        },
        {
          "category": "simplest_reasonable",
          "id": "standard-percentile-lag1-lb12-t90",
          "interpretation": "Causal best guess preserving source extreme-threshold intuition; sparse 9.93% SPY exposure and no source parity."
        },
        {
          "category": "best_portfolio_complement",
          "id": "standard-combined-lag1-lb12-t90",
          "interpretation": "Defensive majority overlay has 7.94% CAGR and -18.65% drawdown; speculative because source does not define allocation or precedence."
        },
        {
          "category": "best_long_history",
          "id": "standard-hilo-lag1-lb12-t0",
          "interpretation": "Uses the SPY-only index-price analog over the broadest family window, but returns are weaker and breadth fidelity is low."
        }
      ],
      "Combinations": [
        "Majority and any-trigger overlays are both exploratory; any-trigger has more transitions and fewer unknown rows, not a source-disclosed precedence rule."
      ],
      "Data": [
        "Cached month-end SPY, ^VIX, IEF, BAA10Y, WALCL from data/market.sqlite; no live request or canonical crawl DB mutation.",
        "Native source span: multi-decade claim for trough/top and NEWHI from August 2016; other component spans unknown.",
        "Publication schedule is source-described only; exact economic release lag and first-release vintages are unknown."
      ],
      "Limitations": [
        "Native RecessionAlert observations and proprietary component definitions are absent.",
        "SPY price, VIX, credit spread, and balance-sheet proxies are not MCOS, HILO, ALIX, NEWHI, TRENDEX, or source probability values.",
        "No exact RecessionAlert publication cutoffs, economic release vintages, state precedence, sizing, cost, cash, exit, or re-entry policy is known.",
        "Variant comparisons use different effective spans and exposure levels; no significance, false-signal, or untouched holdout inference is claimed.",
        "Results remain exploratory and are not a recommendation or official indicator registration."
      ],
      "Parameter sensitivity": [
        "Causal percentile CAGR changes from 8.59% at lag 1/lb12/t90 to 6.07% at lag 2/lb12/t90; the lag-zero control is invalid for causal inference."
      ],
      "Portfolio contribution": {},
      "Promotion status": "Not promoted; reconsider only after authorized native observations and complete executable semantics.",
      "Regime behavior": [
        "Results vary across pre-GFC, GFC, COVID, and recent slices; the campaign diagnostics artifact records all family slices."
      ],
      "Research questions": [
        "Can the distinct RecessionAlert Standard Charts row yield any causally timed, playable insight from the checked-in snapshot when native component observations and complete execution semantics are absent?"
      ],
      "Rules actually disclosed": [
        "Six-factor SP500 TROUGH/TOP probability families; TRENDEX +/-80 and Diffusion extremes; MCOS/VMCOS/STL and Diffusion >=4 bullish; HILO/HILO2 zero-cross BUY/SELL/PENDING; ALIX below-zero risk context; NEWHI XOVR <3 bearish/>3 bullish."
      ],
      "Source": {
        "fetched_at": "2026-08-22T23:38:30Z",
        "native_fidelity": false,
        "sha256": "sha256:c610205a996e580266e255a7b7999bc33e889b12bed140898f0056c3bacdae75",
        "url": "https://recessionalert.com/charts/"
      },
      "State-space exploration": [
        "Six variants tested across percentile, HILO, stress, combined, lag, lookback, and threshold neighborhoods; full ledger is campaign-owned."
      ],
      "Suggested next research": [
        "Can a separately authorized refresh provide source-linked component observations, chart values, or workbook data for the selected SHA-bound page?",
        "Can first-release timestamps, revision policy, initialization, and exact native spans be documented for each Standard Charts component?",
        "Can RecessionAlert state precedence, persistence, hysteresis, missing-state behavior, target, sizing, exits, re-entry, and costs be obtained from an authorized source?",
        "Do public constituent-level breadth and advancing-volume histories materially change the HILO/MCOS/ALIX proxy conclusions after point-in-time alignment?",
        "Can a predeclared untouched validation window distinguish stress-proxy construction from a stable market-timing effect?"
      ],
      "Summary": [
        "The source is a contextual multi-tab family, not one executable indicator; disclosed formulas and thresholds are preserved separately from inferred proxies.",
        "Inventory, manifest, and read-only snapshot agree on the redacted URL, SHA256 sha256:c610205a996e580266e255a7b7999bc33e889b12bed140898f0056c3bacdae75, fetch 2026-08-22T23:38:30Z, HTTP 200, 123739 bytes, and zero target assets.",
        "Five causal proxy variants and one lag-zero control were executed. The causal results are heterogeneous, sparse for percentile/combined families, and sensitive to lag, regime, and proxy definition.",
        "The stress analogue had the highest descriptive Sharpe, but no result establishes native RecessionAlert parity or a promotion-ready signal.",
        "This is an exploratory Other / Research publication with derived proxy series and explicit source-fidelity limitations."
      ],
      "Timing and cost sensitivity": [
        "All causal results use lag >=1. Lag zero is control-only. No costs, slippage, tax, or native portfolio policy are claimed."
      ],
      "Trial ledger": [
        {
          "iteration": 1,
          "status": "published",
          "summary": "Proxy-backed exploratory campaign completed; no promotion."
        }
      ],
      "Validation protocol": {},
      "What did not work": [
        "No proxy establishes native Standard Charts component identity, source vintage policy, or a canonical combined state."
      ],
      "What had to be inferred": [
        "SPY/^VIX, SPY trend, BAA10Y/WALCL stress proxies; percentile/smoothing neighborhoods; causal one/two-period lag; descriptive SPY/IEF overlay."
      ],
      "What the signal looks like": [
        "Interactive lab charts show six derived signal/equity paths, labeled inferred/proxy. They are not source observations."
      ],
      "What the source claims": [
        "The SHA-pinned Standard Charts page describes SP500 TROUGH/TOP six-factor probability context, TRENDEX, MCOS, HILO/HILO2, ALIX, and NEWHI chart interpretations with directional thresholds and dashboard labels.",
        "The source states 90% factor extremes, Diffusion and zero-crossing interpretations, daily/weekly/monthly/intraday schedules, and NEWHI history from August 2016, but does not provide source-linked observations, complete calibration, vintage policy, or exact cutoffs.",
        "Public SPY/^VIX percentile, SPY HILO-style trend, and BAA10Y/WALCL stress proxies test related hypotheses on cached month-end data; all outputs are exploratory and not native source values.",
        "A majority SPY/IEF overlay tests an explicit descriptive portfolio mapping because the source supplies no target, sizing, precedence, exit, re-entry, or cost rule.",
        "Exact RecessionAlert component values, native combined BUY/SELL/PENDING state, first-release vintages, and proprietary probability calibration remain untestable with the checked-in snapshot."
      ],
      "What to try interactively": [
        "Change variant, inspect signal/equity paths, compare causal lag and threshold neighborhoods, and keep lag-zero marked non-causal."
      ],
      "What worked": [
        "A read-only cached proxy panel supports executable exploratory signals over long histories; stress analogue is descriptively strongest."
      ],
      "Why the failures appear to happen": [
        "Missing source observations, proprietary definitions, span mismatch, revision uncertainty, sparse exposure, and absent state precedence dominate fidelity risk."
      ]
    },
    "title": "RecessionAlert Standard Charts \u2014 exploratory public-proxy campaign"
  },
  "campaign": {
    "campaign_id": "recessionalert-standard-charts-1365",
    "iteration_number": 1,
    "research_tags": [
      "data_limited",
      "fidelity_mismatch",
      "interesting_negative_result",
      "regime_dependent",
      "parameter_sensitive",
      "needs_more_research",
      "predictive_not_tradable",
      "useful_as_portfolio_overlay",
      "uninvestable"
    ],
    "status": "published",
    "title": "RecessionAlert Standard Charts \u2014 exploratory public-proxy campaign"
  },
  "candidate_frontier": [
    {
      "category": "best_sharpe",
      "id": "standard-stress-lag1-lb12-t0",
      "interpretation": "Highest descriptive causal Sharpe (1.177) and 10.86% CAGR; inferred BAA10Y/VIX/WALCL stress analogue, not MCOS/ALIX parity."
    },
    {
      "category": "best_crash_protection",
      "id": "standard-percentile-lag2-lb21-t95",
      "interpretation": "Lowest raw max drawdown among causal candidates (-13.76%) but only 61 effective return observations and 7.20% SPY exposure."
    },
    {
      "category": "simplest_reasonable",
      "id": "standard-percentile-lag1-lb12-t90",
      "interpretation": "Causal best guess preserving source extreme-threshold intuition; sparse 9.93% SPY exposure and no source parity."
    },
    {
      "category": "best_portfolio_complement",
      "id": "standard-combined-lag1-lb12-t90",
      "interpretation": "Defensive majority overlay has 7.94% CAGR and -18.65% drawdown; speculative because source does not define allocation or precedence."
    },
    {
      "category": "best_long_history",
      "id": "standard-hilo-lag1-lb12-t0",
      "interpretation": "Uses the SPY-only index-price analog over the broadest family window, but returns are weaker and breadth fidelity is low."
    }
  ],
  "candidate_variants": [
    {
      "annualized_volatility": 0.118231,
      "cagr": -0.190332,
      "claim_kind": "control_only",
      "effective_end": "2026-05-31",
      "effective_start": "2002-08-31",
      "exploratory": true,
      "family": "percentile_extremes",
      "id": "standard-percentile-lag0-lb6-t85",
      "label": "same-period lookahead control; never causal",
      "lag_bars": 0,
      "lookback_months": 6,
      "max_drawdown": -0.877604,
      "observations": 119,
      "risk_on_exposure": 0.1489,
      "sharpe": -1.708602,
      "status": "tested",
      "threshold": 0.85,
      "total_return": -0.876771
    },
    {
      "annualized_volatility": 0.166329,
      "cagr": 0.0859,
      "claim_kind": "inferred_best_guess",
      "effective_end": "2026-04-30",
      "effective_start": "2002-10-31",
      "exploratory": true,
      "family": "percentile_extremes",
      "id": "standard-percentile-lag1-lb12-t90",
      "label": "causal inferred SPY/VIX best guess",
      "lag_bars": 1,
      "lookback_months": 12,
      "max_drawdown": -0.29996,
      "observations": 85,
      "risk_on_exposure": 0.0993,
      "sharpe": 0.580219,
      "status": "tested",
      "threshold": 0.9,
      "total_return": 0.792716
    },
    {
      "annualized_volatility": 0.154967,
      "cagr": 0.089248,
      "claim_kind": "inferred_nearby_variant",
      "effective_end": "2026-05-31",
      "effective_start": "2002-09-30",
      "exploratory": true,
      "family": "percentile_extremes",
      "id": "standard-percentile-lag2-lb21-t95",
      "label": "conservative nearby percentile variant",
      "lag_bars": 2,
      "lookback_months": 21,
      "max_drawdown": -0.137639,
      "observations": 61,
      "risk_on_exposure": 0.072,
      "sharpe": 0.62959,
      "status": "tested",
      "threshold": 0.95,
      "total_return": 0.544284
    },
    {
      "annualized_volatility": 0.094404,
      "cagr": 0.042215,
      "claim_kind": "inferred_family_variant",
      "effective_end": "2026-07-31",
      "effective_start": "2002-08-31",
      "exploratory": true,
      "family": "hilo_trend",
      "id": "standard-hilo-lag1-lb12-t0",
      "label": "causal HILO-style trend analog",
      "lag_bars": 1,
      "lookback_months": 12,
      "max_drawdown": -0.36389,
      "observations": 288,
      "risk_on_exposure": 0.1092,
      "sharpe": 0.486536,
      "status": "tested",
      "threshold": 0.0,
      "total_return": 1.697587
    },
    {
      "annualized_volatility": 0.091468,
      "cagr": 0.108585,
      "claim_kind": "inferred_family_variant",
      "effective_end": "2026-07-31",
      "effective_start": "2004-01-31",
      "exploratory": true,
      "family": "stress_liquidity",
      "id": "standard-stress-lag1-lb12-t0",
      "label": "causal MCOS/ALIX stress analog",
      "lag_bars": 1,
      "lookback_months": 12,
      "max_drawdown": -0.20625,
      "observations": 271,
      "risk_on_exposure": 0.3871,
      "sharpe": 1.177276,
      "status": "tested",
      "threshold": 0.0,
      "total_return": 9.257331
    },
    {
      "annualized_volatility": 0.076788,
      "cagr": 0.079357,
      "claim_kind": "speculative_extension",
      "effective_end": "2026-07-31",
      "effective_start": "2002-10-31",
      "exploratory": true,
      "family": "combined_overlay",
      "id": "standard-combined-lag1-lb12-t90",
      "label": "causal majority exploratory SPY/IEF overlay",
      "lag_bars": 1,
      "lookback_months": 12,
      "max_drawdown": -0.186469,
      "observations": 279,
      "risk_on_exposure": 0.0471,
      "sharpe": 1.035816,
      "status": "tested",
      "threshold": 0.9,
      "total_return": 4.903247
    }
  ],
  "event_tables": [],
  "evidence": {},
  "execution_assumptions": {},
  "interactive_specs": [
    {
      "default": "standard-percentile-lag1-lb12-t90",
      "description": "Select an inferred/proxy signal path.",
      "name": "variant",
      "options": [
        "standard-percentile-lag0-lb6-t85",
        "standard-percentile-lag1-lb12-t90",
        "standard-percentile-lag2-lb21-t95",
        "standard-hilo-lag1-lb12-t0",
        "standard-stress-lag1-lb12-t0",
        "standard-combined-lag1-lb12-t90"
      ]
    },
    {
      "default": 1,
      "description": "Observation lag; zero is non-causal control only.",
      "name": "lag_bars",
      "options": [
        0,
        1,
        2
      ]
    },
    {
      "default": 12,
      "description": "Exploratory rolling lookback.",
      "name": "lookback_months",
      "options": [
        6,
        12,
        21
      ]
    },
    {
      "default": 0.9,
      "description": "Exploratory percentile or standardized threshold.",
      "name": "threshold",
      "options": [
        0.85,
        0.9,
        0.95,
        0.0
      ]
    }
  ],
  "limitations": [
    "Native RecessionAlert observations and proprietary component definitions are absent.",
    "SPY price, VIX, credit spread, and balance-sheet proxies are not MCOS, HILO, ALIX, NEWHI, TRENDEX, or source probability values.",
    "No exact RecessionAlert publication cutoffs, economic release vintages, state precedence, sizing, cost, cash, exit, or re-entry policy is known.",
    "Variant comparisons use different effective spans and exposure levels; no significance, false-signal, or untouched holdout inference is claimed.",
    "Results remain exploratory and are not a recommendation or official indicator registration.",
    "The source page is a family of contextual charts, so no single official indicator is registered."
  ],
  "parameter_grids": [],
  "provenance": {
    "canonical_database": "data/recessionalert.sqlite",
    "effective_spans": "2002-12-31 through 2026-07-31",
    "inventory": "research/findings/recessionalert_inventory.md",
    "manifest": "research/artifacts/recessionalert/manifest.json",
    "proxy_cache": "data/market.sqlite read-only",
    "proxy_providers": "Yahoo for market OHLCV and FRED for macro series, as recorded in market.sqlite metadata",
    "proxy_series": [
      "SPY",
      "^VIX",
      "IEF",
      "BAA10Y",
      "WALCL"
    ],
    "publication_lag": "Source schedule is recorded; proxy calculations conservatively lag one available observation and execute next bar; exact native cutoffs/vintages unknown",
    "redistribution": "Derived proxy values, hashes, formulas, and metadata only; no cached HTML/media/workbook bytes, credentials, cookies, authenticated URLs, or private account data.",
    "source_fetched_at": "2026-08-22T23:38:30Z",
    "source_page": "https://recessionalert.com/charts/",
    "source_page_sha256": "sha256:c610205a996e580266e255a7b7999bc33e889b12bed140898f0056c3bacdae75"
  },
  "regime_tables": [],
  "schema_version": "research-publication/v1",
  "series": {
    "BAA10Y": [
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      2.2,
      2.18,
      2.12,
      2.1,
      2.16,
      2.05,
      1.91,
      2.0,
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      1.91,
      1.94,
      1.85,
      1.77,
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      1.48,
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      1.51,
      1.66,
      1.74,
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