{
  "article": {
    "official_admission": false,
    "required_headings": [
      "Summary",
      "Source",
      "What the source claims",
      "Rules actually disclosed",
      "What had to be inferred",
      "Research questions",
      "Data",
      "Baseline implementation",
      "What the signal looks like",
      "Historical events",
      "State-space exploration",
      "Parameter sensitivity",
      "What worked",
      "What did not work",
      "Why the failures appear to happen",
      "Regime behavior",
      "Timing and cost sensitivity",
      "Combinations",
      "Candidate frontier",
      "Agent assessment",
      "Limitations",
      "What to try interactively",
      "Suggested next research",
      "Promotion status",
      "Trial ledger",
      "Validation protocol",
      "Portfolio contribution"
    ],
    "research_tags": [
      "data_limited",
      "fidelity_mismatch",
      "interesting_negative_result",
      "parameter_sensitive",
      "regime_dependent",
      "useful_as_portfolio_overlay",
      "predictive_not_tradable",
      "uninvestable",
      "needs_more_research"
    ],
    "sections": {
      "Baseline implementation": {
        "claim_kind": "inferred",
        "claim_role": "causal_primary",
        "exploratory": true,
        "family": "sahm_smoothed",
        "id": "recessionalert.sahm_smoothed.lb12.lag1.t0p5",
        "lag_bars": 1,
        "lookback": 12,
        "metrics": {
          "cagr": 0.11459193766885756,
          "end": "2026-06-30",
          "max_drawdown": -0.23927178828328344,
          "n_months": 286,
          "risk_off_events": 15,
          "risk_on_share": 0.771551724137931,
          "sharpe": 0.925855479023602,
          "start": "2002-08-31",
          "vol": 0.12626878298736682
        },
        "smoothed": true,
        "source_fidelity": false,
        "threshold": 0.5
      },
      "Candidate frontier": [
        {
          "category": "best_sharpe",
          "claim_role": "causal_primary",
          "family": "sahm_smoothed",
          "id": "recessionalert.sahm_smoothed.lb12.lag1.t0p5",
          "interpretation": "Exploratory best Sharpe on SPY/IEF overlay; inferred UNRATE proxy, not native SAHM Redux parity.",
          "metrics": {
            "cagr": 0.11459193766885756,
            "end": "2026-06-30",
            "max_drawdown": -0.23927178828328344,
            "n_months": 286,
            "risk_off_events": 15,
            "risk_on_share": 0.771551724137931,
            "sharpe": 0.925855479023602,
            "start": "2002-08-31",
            "vol": 0.12626878298736682
          }
        },
        {
          "category": "best_return",
          "claim_role": "causal_primary",
          "family": "sahm_smoothed",
          "id": "recessionalert.sahm_smoothed.lb12.lag1.t0p5",
          "interpretation": "Exploratory best return; inferred proxy, not native subscriber chart parity.",
          "metrics": {
            "cagr": 0.11459193766885756,
            "end": "2026-06-30",
            "max_drawdown": -0.23927178828328344,
            "n_months": 286,
            "risk_off_events": 15,
            "risk_on_share": 0.771551724137931,
            "sharpe": 0.925855479023602,
            "start": "2002-08-31",
            "vol": 0.12626878298736682
          }
        },
        {
          "category": "simplest_reasonable",
          "claim_role": "causal_primary",
          "family": "sahm_smoothed",
          "id": "recessionalert.sahm_smoothed.lb12.lag1.t0p5",
          "interpretation": "Documented standard 3MMA Sahm 0.50 baseline proxy with causal lag 1.",
          "metrics": {
            "cagr": 0.11459193766885756,
            "end": "2026-06-30",
            "max_drawdown": -0.23927178828328344,
            "n_months": 286,
            "risk_off_events": 15,
            "risk_on_share": 0.771551724137931,
            "sharpe": 0.925855479023602,
            "start": "2002-08-31",
            "vol": 0.12626878298736682
          }
        },
        {
          "category": "best_long_history",
          "claim_role": "causal_primary",
          "family": "sahm_smoothed",
          "id": "recessionalert.sahm_smoothed.lb12.lag1.t0p5",
          "interpretation": "UNRATE proxy spans 1948-2026; overlay window limited by SPY/BIL availability.",
          "metrics": {
            "cagr": 0.11459193766885756,
            "end": "2026-06-30",
            "max_drawdown": -0.23927178828328344,
            "n_months": 286,
            "risk_off_events": 15,
            "risk_on_share": 0.771551724137931,
            "sharpe": 0.925855479023602,
            "start": "2002-08-31",
            "vol": 0.12626878298736682
          }
        }
      ],
      "Data": {
        "database": "data/market.sqlite read-only",
        "fetched_at": "2026-08-22T23:48:25Z",
        "frequency": "month_end",
        "page_sha256": "sha256:9e9dc30d8e2d67ec4b12fd7b31d0589fb92659e575f105def7c6290949ab434e",
        "proxies": [
          "UNRATE",
          "SPY",
          "IEF",
          "BIL"
        ],
        "ra_database": "data/recessionalert.sqlite read-only; no mutation"
      },
      "Limitations": [
        "No page-local asset SHA256 or subscriber chart bytes.",
        "U2RATE/state/metro families untestable with current datastore.",
        "SPY/IEF overlays are inferred demonstration harnesses only.",
        "BLS UNRATE revisions and rounding affect unsmoothed triggers.",
        "Results exploratory; not investment advice or catalog admission."
      ],
      "Portfolio contribution": {},
      "Promotion status": "Not promoted \u2014 Research Library only.",
      "Research questions": [
        "Can the RecessionAlert SAHM Rule Redux MODELS article yield causally timed exploratory insight from labeled UNRATE proxies when native subscriber charts, U2 series, and portfolio mapping are absent?"
      ],
      "Rules actually disclosed": [
        "Standard Sahm: 3MMA(UNRATE) minus prior 12m minimum; trigger 0.50.",
        "Redux #1: unsmoothed vs 12m min; trigger 0.60 to address June 2003 false positive.",
        "Redux #2: unsmoothed vs prior 7m min; eliminates June 2003 false positive.",
        "Cycle-low Schannepp lookback beyond 12m to cycle trough (examples 13\u201319 months).",
        "State individualized Sahm triggers 0.4%\u20131.0% per state; U2 Job Losers Redux variant.",
        "Monthly subscriber chart cadence; no page-local xlsx/csv/chart asset on this row."
      ],
      "Source": {
        "fetched_at": "2026-08-22T23:48:25Z",
        "native_span": "single 2024-04-01 HTML snapshot; no source-linked subscriber chart or xlsx asset",
        "publication_lag": "monthly labor-report cadence qualitative; per-variant release clock undisclosed",
        "redacted_url": "https://recessionalert.com/sahm-rule-redux/",
        "sha256": "sha256:9e9dc30d8e2d67ec4b12fd7b31d0589fb92659e575f105def7c6290949ab434e",
        "title": "MODELS: The SAHM Rule Redux | RecessionAlert",
        "url": "https://recessionalert.com/sahm-rule-redux/"
      },
      "Suggested next research": [
        "Can an authorized refresh attach subscriber chart SHA256 assets?",
        "Does importing U2RATE enable Job Losers Redux testing?",
        "Would first-release macro vintages change causal lag conclusions?"
      ],
      "Summary": [
        "MODELS SAHM Redux article discloses multiple Sahm constructions but no page-local assets or portfolio map.",
        "Executed 6 labeled UNRATE proxy variants with causal lag>=1 on longest defensible spans.",
        "Highest descriptive causal Sharpe among tested variants: recessionalert.sahm_smoothed.lb12.lag1.t0p5 (0.926).",
        "Disposition exploratory_tested_proxy under Other/Research with explicit NO-GO for native fidelity."
      ],
      "Trial ledger": [
        {
          "iteration": 1,
          "note": "Initial offline best-effort proxy campaign for issue 1565",
          "status": "published"
        }
      ],
      "Validation protocol": {},
      "What had to be inferred": [
        "UNRATE public proxies for undisclosed native microdata; SPY/IEF/BIL overlays for demonstration only."
      ],
      "What the source claims": [
        "Standard Sahm: 3MMA(UNRATE) minus prior 12m minimum; trigger 0.50.",
        "Redux #1: unsmoothed vs 12m min; trigger 0.60 to address June 2003 false positive.",
        "Redux #2: unsmoothed vs prior 7m min; eliminates June 2003 false positive.",
        "Cycle-low Schannepp lookback beyond 12m to cycle trough (examples 13\u201319 months).",
        "State individualized Sahm triggers 0.4%\u20131.0% per state; U2 Job Losers Redux variant.",
        "Monthly subscriber chart cadence; no page-local xlsx/csv/chart asset on this row.",
        "UNRATE public proxies for undisclosed native microdata; SPY/IEF/BIL overlays for demonstration only.",
        "U2RATE absent from datastore; state/metro enumeration and subscriber chart byte parity unavailable."
      ],
      "What to try interactively": [
        {
          "name": "family",
          "type": "enum",
          "values": [
            "sahm_smoothed",
            "sahm_unsmoothed"
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "lag_bars",
          "type": "integer",
          "values": [
            0,
            1,
            2
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "lookback",
          "type": "integer",
          "values": [
            7,
            12
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "threshold",
          "type": "number",
          "values": [
            0.4,
            0.5,
            0.6
          ]
        }
      ]
    },
    "title": "MODELS: The SAHM Rule Redux | RecessionAlert \u2014 exploratory proxy campaign"
  },
  "campaign": {
    "campaign_id": "recessionalert-sahm-rule-redux",
    "iteration_number": 1,
    "research_tags": [
      "data_limited",
      "fidelity_mismatch",
      "interesting_negative_result",
      "parameter_sensitive",
      "regime_dependent",
      "useful_as_portfolio_overlay",
      "predictive_not_tradable",
      "uninvestable",
      "needs_more_research"
    ],
    "status": "published",
    "title": "MODELS: The SAHM Rule Redux | RecessionAlert \u2014 exploratory proxy campaign"
  },
  "candidate_frontier": [
    {
      "category": "best_sharpe",
      "claim_role": "causal_primary",
      "family": "sahm_smoothed",
      "id": "recessionalert.sahm_smoothed.lb12.lag1.t0p5",
      "interpretation": "Exploratory best Sharpe on SPY/IEF overlay; inferred UNRATE proxy, not native SAHM Redux parity.",
      "metrics": {
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        "end": "2026-06-30",
        "max_drawdown": -0.23927178828328344,
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        "risk_on_share": 0.771551724137931,
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      "category": "best_return",
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      "id": "recessionalert.sahm_smoothed.lb12.lag1.t0p5",
      "interpretation": "Exploratory best return; inferred proxy, not native subscriber chart parity.",
      "metrics": {
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        "end": "2026-06-30",
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        "risk_on_share": 0.771551724137931,
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        "vol": 0.12626878298736682
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    },
    {
      "category": "simplest_reasonable",
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      "id": "recessionalert.sahm_smoothed.lb12.lag1.t0p5",
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    {
      "category": "best_long_history",
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      "family": "sahm_smoothed",
      "id": "recessionalert.sahm_smoothed.lb12.lag1.t0p5",
      "interpretation": "UNRATE proxy spans 1948-2026; overlay window limited by SPY/BIL availability.",
      "metrics": {
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  "candidate_variants": [
    {
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    {
      "claim_kind": "inferred",
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      "id": "recessionalert.sahm_unsmoothed.lb12.lag1.t0p6",
      "lag_bars": 1,
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      "metrics": {
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    {
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      "family": "sahm_unsmoothed",
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    {
      "claim_kind": "inferred",
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      "exploratory": true,
      "family": "sahm_unsmoothed",
      "id": "recessionalert.sahm_unsmoothed.lb7.lag1.t0p5",
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    {
      "claim_kind": "inferred",
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      "family": "sahm_unsmoothed",
      "id": "recessionalert.sahm_unsmoothed.lb7.lag2.t0p4",
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      "metrics": {
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    {
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      "id": "recessionalert.sahm_smoothed.lb12.lag2.t0p4",
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      "smoothed": true,
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      "threshold": 0.4
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  ],
  "event_tables": [],
  "evidence": {},
  "execution_assumptions": {},
  "interactive_specs": [
    {
      "name": "family",
      "type": "enum",
      "values": [
        "sahm_smoothed",
        "sahm_unsmoothed"
      ]
    },
    {
      "name": "lag_bars",
      "type": "integer",
      "values": [
        0,
        1,
        2
      ]
    },
    {
      "name": "lookback",
      "type": "integer",
      "values": [
        7,
        12
      ]
    },
    {
      "name": "threshold",
      "type": "number",
      "values": [
        0.4,
        0.5,
        0.6
      ]
    }
  ],
  "limitations": [
    "No page-local asset SHA256 or subscriber chart bytes.",
    "U2RATE/state/metro families untestable with current datastore.",
    "SPY/IEF overlays are inferred demonstration harnesses only.",
    "BLS UNRATE revisions and rounding affect unsmoothed triggers.",
    "Results exploratory; not investment advice or catalog admission."
  ],
  "parameter_grids": [],
  "provenance": {
    "database": "data/market.sqlite read-only",
    "fetched_at": "2026-08-22T23:48:25Z",
    "frequency": "month_end",
    "page_sha256": "sha256:9e9dc30d8e2d67ec4b12fd7b31d0589fb92659e575f105def7c6290949ab434e",
    "proxies": [
      "UNRATE",
      "SPY",
      "IEF",
      "BIL"
    ],
    "ra_database": "data/recessionalert.sqlite read-only; no mutation"
  },
  "regime_tables": [],
  "schema_version": "research-publication/v1",
  "series": {
    "availability": "unavailable",
    "dates": [],
    "reason": "No reproducible underlying price and signal-input series are published for this expression."
  },
  "signals": {
    "spec": null,
    "specs": []
  },
  "trial_ledger": []
}