{
  "article": {
    "official_admission": false,
    "required_headings": [
      "Summary",
      "Source",
      "What the source claims",
      "Rules actually disclosed",
      "What had to be inferred",
      "Research questions",
      "Data",
      "Baseline implementation",
      "What the signal looks like",
      "Historical events",
      "State-space exploration",
      "Parameter sensitivity",
      "What worked",
      "What did not work",
      "Why the failures appear to happen",
      "Regime behavior",
      "Timing and cost sensitivity",
      "Combinations",
      "Candidate frontier",
      "Agent assessment",
      "Limitations",
      "What to try interactively",
      "Suggested next research",
      "Promotion status",
      "Trial ledger",
      "Validation protocol",
      "Portfolio contribution"
    ],
    "research_tags": [
      "data_limited",
      "fidelity_mismatch",
      "needs_more_research",
      "useful_as_filter",
      "interesting_negative_result"
    ],
    "sections": {
      "Agent assessment": [
        "Disposition exploratory_tested_proxy under Other/Research.",
        "Explicit NO-GO for playable Other/Indicators native OPTIMUM/STM/OPT-D promotion."
      ],
      "Baseline implementation": {
        "claim_kind": "inferred",
        "claim_role": "causal_primary",
        "exploratory": true,
        "family": "optimum1-macro-cycle-proxy",
        "id": "o1_unrate_sahm_lb12_lag1",
        "lag_bars": 1,
        "lookback": 12,
        "metrics": {
          "cagr": 0.11651715726987444,
          "end": "2025-10-31",
          "max_drawdown": -0.23927178828328344,
          "n_months": 382,
          "risk_off_events": 30,
          "risk_on_share": 0.8638743455497382,
          "sharpe": 0.9087593003011495,
          "start": "1994-01-31",
          "vol": 0.13131911806178703
        },
        "threshold": 0.5
      },
      "Candidate frontier": [
        {
          "category": "best_sharpe",
          "claim_role": "causal_primary",
          "family": "related-workbook-position-overlay",
          "id": "wb_stmpro_lag1",
          "interpretation": "Exploratory best sharpe; inferred proxy, not native OPTIMUM parity.",
          "metrics": {
            "cagr": 0.18968299784007225,
            "end": "2026-07-31",
            "max_drawdown": -0.14574112589639265,
            "n_months": 208,
            "risk_off_events": 277,
            "risk_on_share": 0.722488038277512,
            "sharpe": 1.4371310145544502,
            "start": "2009-04-30",
            "vol": 0.12729432859804593
          }
        },
        {
          "category": "best_return",
          "claim_role": "causal_primary",
          "family": "related-workbook-position-overlay",
          "id": "wb_diffn_gt0_lag1",
          "interpretation": "Exploratory best return; inferred proxy, not native OPTIMUM parity.",
          "metrics": {
            "cagr": 0.12531953418811015,
            "end": "2026-07-31",
            "max_drawdown": -0.2948513128044393,
            "n_months": 208,
            "risk_off_events": 221,
            "risk_on_share": 0.8995215311004785,
            "sharpe": 1.0088787432648885,
            "start": "2009-04-30",
            "vol": 0.12539915014090555
          }
        },
        {
          "category": "lowest_drawdown",
          "claim_role": "causal_primary",
          "family": "optimum-d1-d2-diffusion-vote",
          "id": "d1_vote_gt0_lag1",
          "interpretation": "Exploratory lowest drawdown; inferred proxy, not native OPTIMUM parity.",
          "metrics": {
            "cagr": 0.09427949152323722,
            "end": "2026-07-31",
            "max_drawdown": -0.19336384497374526,
            "n_months": 402,
            "risk_off_events": 49,
            "risk_on_share": 0.6575682382133995,
            "sharpe": 0.9615585416310612,
            "start": "1993-02-28",
            "vol": 0.09913304875177925
          }
        },
        {
          "category": "best_long_history",
          "claim_role": "causal_primary",
          "family": "stm-seasonality-proxy",
          "id": "stm_nov_apr_lag1",
          "interpretation": "Exploratory best long history; inferred proxy, not native OPTIMUM parity.",
          "metrics": {
            "cagr": 0.07150524580457307,
            "end": "2026-07-31",
            "max_drawdown": -0.215464140038385,
            "n_months": 402,
            "risk_off_events": 68,
            "risk_on_share": 0.5012406947890818,
            "sharpe": 0.6952598941275255,
            "start": "1993-02-28",
            "vol": 0.10798411437212631
          }
        }
      ],
      "Combinations": [
        {
          "families_tested": [
            "best-effort-neighbor-grid",
            "optimum-bull-frequency-spy-trend",
            "optimum-cmhi-market-health-proxy",
            "optimum-d1-d2-diffusion-vote",
            "optimum1-macro-cycle-proxy",
            "related-workbook-position-overlay",
            "stm-seasonality-proxy"
          ],
          "n_causal": 22,
          "n_control": 4,
          "n_trials": 26
        }
      ],
      "Data": {
        "causal_policy": "lag>=1 causal_primary; lag0 control_only",
        "database": "data/market.sqlite + data/recessionalert.sqlite read-only",
        "page_sha256": "sha256:340dfcfa15d9f4429fd88f2563981d90627bbbe0b6ac250682e453e2b9e35099",
        "workbook_sha256": "sha256:c01364504b43f157c9fd58752b2c8c9774318f04542f736198ce74cf4d0350d4"
      },
      "Historical events": [
        "Regime slices on bull_sma12_lag1: GFC/COVID/2022 mixed; recent stronger \u2014 exploratory only."
      ],
      "Limitations": [
        "Native formulas, thresholds, publication lag, and chart SHA256 absent",
        "Workbook OPTIMUM_DATA.xlsx is off-row (PRO>Excel Data pointer) and opaque",
        "CFNAI/USSLIND/T10Y2Y unavailable in local macro store",
        "Results are exploratory in-sample overlays, not product parity"
      ],
      "Parameter sensitivity": [
        "Lag-0 controls are non-causal; claims use lag>=1 only.",
        "Lookbacks 6/12/21 and workbook columns OPT-1/DIFFN/STM-PRO/OPT-CMHI tested."
      ],
      "Portfolio contribution": {},
      "Promotion status": "Not promoted \u2014 Research Library only. Native fidelity NO-GO unless a human later promotes with on-row assets and disclosed rules.",
      "Regime behavior": [
        {
          "covid": {
            "cagr": 0.18334527481396323,
            "max_drawdown": -0.06144374529869656,
            "n_months": 12,
            "sharpe": 1.0359774391026706
          },
          "gfc": {
            "cagr": 0.034066759647187084,
            "max_drawdown": -0.06652293466602999,
            "n_months": 21,
            "sharpe": 0.37949209386896005
          },
          "inflation_2022": {
            "cagr": -0.1766630007562896,
            "max_drawdown": -0.15434130538895718,
            "n_months": 12,
            "sharpe": -1.3795369795772205
          },
          "recent": {
            "cagr": 0.19008108772055987,
            "max_drawdown": -0.08325836002549158,
            "n_months": 43,
            "sharpe": 1.4763759430802312
          }
        }
      ],
      "Research questions": [
        "Can public SPY/IEF/macro proxies and off-row OPTIMUM_DATA.xlsx positions extract any useful labeled market-timing signal from the incomplete PRO>OPTIMUM page?"
      ],
      "Rules actually disclosed": [
        "PRO>OPTIMUM dashboard exposes OPT-CMHI, OPT-1..5, STM-PRO, OPT-D SP500 market-timing models.",
        "Macro vs bull-market classes with standardized March 2009 performance tables.",
        "Page claims explicit entry/exit rules but discloses no formulas, series, lags, or thresholds."
      ],
      "Source": {
        "fetched_at": "2026-08-22T23:25:15Z",
        "kind": "recessionalert_page",
        "sha256": "sha256:340dfcfa15d9f4429fd88f2563981d90627bbbe0b6ac250682e453e2b9e35099",
        "title": "PRO > OPTIMUM | RecessionAlert",
        "url": "https://recessionalert.com/pro-optimum/"
      },
      "State-space exploration": [
        "26 labeled variants across 7 families; negatives retained."
      ],
      "Suggested next research": [
        "Can on-row chart PNG bytes or Analyzer xlsx be captured with SHA256 under a new crawl?",
        "Do subscriber docs disclose OPTIMUM entry/exit formulas beyond this page?",
        "Would importing CFNAI/USSLIND/T10Y2Y improve macro-family discrimination?"
      ],
      "Summary": [
        "Pinned /pro-optimum/ sha256:340dfcfa15d9 has zero on-row assets and no executable formulas.",
        "Executed 26 labeled variants; best causal Sharpe among public proxies is wb_stmpro_lag1 (Sharpe 1.437).",
        "Opaque workbook STM-PRO lag1 shows strong in-sample Sharpe but is not native formula fidelity.",
        "Explicit NO-GO for playable Other/Indicators native OPTIMUM/STM/OPT-D promotion."
      ],
      "Timing and cost sensitivity": [
        "Lag>=1 required; overlay is month-end SPY/IEF without explicit trading-cost drag."
      ],
      "Trial ledger": [
        {
          "n": 1,
          "summary": "Initial exploratory proxy campaign for PRO>OPTIMUM"
        }
      ],
      "Validation protocol": {},
      "What did not work": [
        "Native fidelity impossible from this HTML alone.",
        "Macro Sahm-style overlays underperformed bull SMA on this window.",
        "2022 inflation year was weak for the primary bull SMA overlay."
      ],
      "What had to be inferred": [
        "Public SMA/Sahm/seasonality/diffusion proxies and lagged OPTIMUM_DATA.xlsx positions are exploratory stand-ins.",
        "Neighbor grids (lags 0/1/2, lookbacks 6/12/21, thresholds 0/-0.5) via best_effort."
      ],
      "What the signal looks like": [
        "Month-end SPY/IEF overlay weights from lagged SMA/Sahm/seasonality/diffusion proxies and opaque OPTIMUM_DATA positions.",
        "DSL SignalSpecs are SMA stand-ins; executable primitives live in research/research_campaign/recessionalert_1549.py."
      ],
      "What the source claims": [
        "PRO>OPTIMUM dashboard exposes OPT-CMHI, OPT-1..5, STM-PRO, OPT-D SP500 market-timing models.",
        "Macro vs bull-market classes with standardized March 2009 performance tables.",
        "Page claims explicit entry/exit rules but discloses no formulas, series, lags, or thresholds.",
        "Public SMA/Sahm/seasonality/diffusion proxies and lagged OPTIMUM_DATA.xlsx positions are exploratory stand-ins.",
        "Neighbor grids (lags 0/1/2, lookbacks 6/12/21, thresholds 0/-0.5) via best_effort."
      ],
      "What to try interactively": [
        {
          "name": "lag_bars",
          "note": "0 is control_only",
          "values": [
            0,
            1,
            2
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "lookback",
          "values": [
            6,
            12,
            21
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "threshold",
          "values": [
            0.0,
            -0.5,
            0.5
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "workbook_column",
          "values": [
            "OPT-1",
            "OPT-CMHI",
            "DIFFN",
            "STM-PRO"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "What worked": [
        "wb_stmpro_lag1 led causal Sharpe among tested variants.",
        "Workbook STM-PRO/DIFFN overlays are informative but labeled opaque/related, not native."
      ],
      "Why the failures appear to happen": [
        "PRO>OPTIMUM discloses structure and charts without formulas.",
        "Public proxies cannot recover proprietary OPTIMUM engines; workbook columns lack construction rules."
      ]
    },
    "title": "PRO > OPTIMUM | RecessionAlert \u2014 exploratory proxy campaign"
  },
  "campaign": {
    "campaign_id": "recessionalert-pro-optimum-1549",
    "iteration_number": 1,
    "research_tags": [
      "data_limited",
      "fidelity_mismatch",
      "needs_more_research",
      "useful_as_filter",
      "interesting_negative_result"
    ],
    "status": "published",
    "title": "PRO > OPTIMUM | RecessionAlert \u2014 exploratory proxy campaign"
  },
  "candidate_frontier": [
    {
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      "id": "wb_stmpro_lag1",
      "interpretation": "Exploratory best sharpe; inferred proxy, not native OPTIMUM parity.",
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      "category": "best_return",
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      "interpretation": "Exploratory best return; inferred proxy, not native OPTIMUM parity.",
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    {
      "category": "lowest_drawdown",
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      "family": "optimum-d1-d2-diffusion-vote",
      "id": "d1_vote_gt0_lag1",
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      "category": "best_long_history",
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      "family": "stm-seasonality-proxy",
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      "metrics": {
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