{
  "article": {
    "official_admission": false,
    "required_headings": [
      "Summary",
      "Source",
      "What the source claims",
      "Rules actually disclosed",
      "What had to be inferred",
      "Research questions",
      "Data",
      "Baseline implementation",
      "What the signal looks like",
      "Historical events",
      "State-space exploration",
      "Parameter sensitivity",
      "What worked",
      "What did not work",
      "Why the failures appear to happen",
      "Regime behavior",
      "Timing and cost sensitivity",
      "Combinations",
      "Candidate frontier",
      "Agent assessment",
      "Limitations",
      "What to try interactively",
      "Suggested next research",
      "Promotion status",
      "Trial ledger",
      "Validation protocol",
      "Portfolio contribution"
    ],
    "research_tags": [
      "data_limited",
      "fidelity_mismatch",
      "interesting_negative_result",
      "regime_dependent",
      "parameter_sensitive",
      "needs_more_research",
      "predictive_not_tradable",
      "useful_as_portfolio_overlay",
      "uninvestable"
    ],
    "sections": {
      "Agent assessment": [
        "Publish as exploratory Other / Research evidence. Do not register an official Other / Indicators signal."
      ],
      "Baseline implementation": [
        "Causal default lag is one available observation followed by next available trading bar. Lag zero appears only as a non-causal control. Missing values remain unavailable."
      ],
      "Candidate frontier": [
        {
          "category": "best_return",
          "id": "pro-combined-lag1-lb12-t85",
          "interpretation": "Highest descriptive causal CAGR (7.01%) among lag>=1 variants; speculative majority-vote SPY/IEF overlay, not source parity."
        },
        {
          "category": "best_sharpe",
          "id": "pro-combined-lag1-lb12-t85",
          "interpretation": "Highest descriptive causal Sharpe (0.582) among lag>=1 variants; still exploratory and weaker than buy-and-hold SPY."
        },
        {
          "category": "simplest_reasonable",
          "id": "pro-dcom-lag1-lb12-t0",
          "interpretation": "Causal DCOM best guess with 6.09% CAGR; public vol/momentum/liquidity analogue only."
        },
        {
          "category": "best_long_history",
          "id": "pro-dcom-lag1-lb12-t0",
          "interpretation": "Uses the longest SPY/VIX panel from 1993 with causal lag 1."
        },
        {
          "category": "best_portfolio_complement",
          "id": "pro-fed-lag1-lb12-t0",
          "interpretation": "Fed WALCL YoY analogue at 6.53% CAGR; liquidity context without portfolio semantics."
        },
        {
          "category": "lowest_drawdown",
          "id": "pro-combined-lag1-lb12-t85",
          "interpretation": "Among causal candidates, combined overlay is the descriptive frontier leader; absolute drawdowns remain material and not source-validated."
        }
      ],
      "Combinations": [
        "Majority-vote combined overlay is exploratory; not a source-disclosed precedence rule."
      ],
      "Data": [
        "Panel 403 month-end rows 1993-01-31..2026-07-31 from SPY, ^VIX, IEF, BAA10Y, WALCL in data/market.sqlite (read-only)."
      ],
      "Limitations": [
        "Exploratory inferred/proxy only; not investment advice; not promoted to Other / Indicators."
      ],
      "Parameter sensitivity": [
        "DCOM lag0 control ~12.96% (lb12); lag1 6.09%; lag2 4.43%. Combined causal best 7.01%."
      ],
      "Portfolio contribution": {},
      "Promotion status": "Not promoted; reconsider only after authorized native observations and complete executable semantics.",
      "Regime behavior": [
        "Results vary across pre-GFC, GFC, COVID, and recent slices; diagnostics artifact records all family slices."
      ],
      "Research questions": [
        "Can the distinct RecessionAlert PRO Charts row yield any causally timed, playable insight from the checked-in snapshot when native component observations and complete execution semantics are absent?"
      ],
      "Rules actually disclosed": [
        "MTLV2/DCOM four-factor medium-term composite",
        "Six OCTA trough-buy counters with model-specific thresholds",
        "Fed H.4.1 Wednesday headline YoY securities held outright"
      ],
      "Source": {
        "fetched_at": "2026-08-22T23:38:33Z",
        "sha256": "sha256:57ddf56cb62e1dd8ad38fae88849241fa3f07f3dab2188de4b16df00c1c523eb",
        "url": "https://recessionalert.com/chartspro/"
      },
      "State-space exploration": [
        "Six variants across DCOM, trough, Fed, combined, lag, lookback, and threshold neighborhoods; full ledger is campaign-owned."
      ],
      "Suggested next research": [
        "Authorized native observations",
        "Exact vintages and cutoffs",
        "Constituent high-count histories",
        "Complete portfolio semantics before promotion"
      ],
      "Summary": [
        "Exploratory public-proxy campaign for RecessionAlert PRO Charts using offline SPY, VIX, IEF, BAA10Y, and WALCL.",
        "Six variants tested; best causal descriptive overlay is combined-lag1 at 7.01% CAGR \u2014 below buy-and-hold SPY and not source parity."
      ],
      "Timing and cost sensitivity": [
        "All causal results use lag >=1. Lag zero is control-only. No costs, slippage, tax, or native portfolio policy are claimed."
      ],
      "Trial ledger": [
        {
          "iteration": 1,
          "status": "published",
          "summary": "Proxy-backed exploratory campaign completed; no promotion."
        }
      ],
      "Validation protocol": {},
      "What did not work": [
        "No proxy establishes native PRO component identity, source vintage policy, or a canonical combined state. Causal CAGRs trail buy-and-hold SPY."
      ],
      "What had to be inferred": [
        "SPY/VIX/WALCL DCOM proxy; SPY/VIX trough proxy; WALCL Fed YoY; majority combined state; SPY/IEF overlay; lag/lookback/threshold neighborhoods"
      ],
      "What the signal looks like": [
        "Interactive lab charts show six derived signal/equity paths, labeled inferred/proxy. They are not source observations."
      ],
      "What the source claims": [
        "The SHA-pinned PRO Charts page describes MTLV2/DCOM four-factor medium-term composite, six long-term trough-buy counters (MODEL-114/220/222/330/332/13WK), and Fed H.4.1 weekly balance-sheet charts with directional interpretations.",
        "The source states DCOM standardization, counter thresholds and average t+1..t+6 trough timings, percentiles since 1990, PRO 15-minute updates, and Wednesday H.4.1 Fed charts, but does not provide source-linked observations, complete calibration, vintage policy, exact cutoffs, or portfolio rules.",
        "Public SPY/^VIX/WALCL DCOM, SPY/VIX trough-buy, and WALCL Fed YoY proxies test related hypotheses on cached month-end data; all outputs are exploratory and not native source values.",
        "A majority SPY/IEF overlay tests an explicit descriptive portfolio mapping because the source supplies no target, sizing, precedence, exit, re-entry, or cost rule.",
        "Exact RecessionAlert component values, native combined state, first-release vintages, and proprietary DCOM/OCTA calibration remain untestable with the checked-in snapshot."
      ],
      "What to try interactively": [
        "Change variant, inspect signal/equity paths, compare causal lag and threshold neighborhoods, and keep lag-zero marked non-causal."
      ],
      "What worked": [
        "Read-only cached proxy panel supports executable exploratory signals over long histories; combined majority-vote is descriptively strongest among causal candidates."
      ],
      "Why the failures appear to happen": [
        "Missing source observations, proprietary definitions, span mismatch, revision uncertainty, and absent state precedence dominate fidelity risk."
      ]
    },
    "title": "RecessionAlert PRO Charts \u2014 exploratory public-proxy campaign"
  },
  "campaign": {
    "campaign_id": "recessionalert-pro-charts-1366",
    "iteration_number": 1,
    "research_tags": [
      "data_limited",
      "fidelity_mismatch",
      "interesting_negative_result",
      "regime_dependent",
      "parameter_sensitive",
      "needs_more_research",
      "predictive_not_tradable",
      "useful_as_portfolio_overlay",
      "uninvestable"
    ],
    "status": "published",
    "title": "RecessionAlert PRO Charts \u2014 exploratory public-proxy campaign"
  },
  "candidate_frontier": [
    {
      "category": "best_return",
      "id": "pro-combined-lag1-lb12-t85",
      "interpretation": "Highest descriptive causal CAGR (7.01%) among lag>=1 variants; speculative majority-vote SPY/IEF overlay, not source parity."
    },
    {
      "category": "best_sharpe",
      "id": "pro-combined-lag1-lb12-t85",
      "interpretation": "Highest descriptive causal Sharpe (0.582) among lag>=1 variants; still exploratory and weaker than buy-and-hold SPY."
    },
    {
      "category": "simplest_reasonable",
      "id": "pro-dcom-lag1-lb12-t0",
      "interpretation": "Causal DCOM best guess with 6.09% CAGR; public vol/momentum/liquidity analogue only."
    },
    {
      "category": "best_long_history",
      "id": "pro-dcom-lag1-lb12-t0",
      "interpretation": "Uses the longest SPY/VIX panel from 1993 with causal lag 1."
    },
    {
      "category": "best_portfolio_complement",
      "id": "pro-fed-lag1-lb12-t0",
      "interpretation": "Fed WALCL YoY analogue at 6.53% CAGR; liquidity context without portfolio semantics."
    },
    {
      "category": "lowest_drawdown",
      "id": "pro-combined-lag1-lb12-t85",
      "interpretation": "Among causal candidates, combined overlay is the descriptive frontier leader; absolute drawdowns remain material and not source-validated."
    }
  ],
  "candidate_variants": [
    {
      "annualized_volatility": 0.1219667723510116,
      "cagr": 0.10658501131711628,
      "claim_kind": "control_only",
      "effective_end": "2026-07-31",
      "effective_start": "2004-05-31",
      "exploratory": true,
      "family": "dcom_liquidity",
      "id": "pro-dcom-lag0-lb6-t0",
      "label": "same-period lookahead control; never causal",
      "lag_bars": 0,
      "lookback_months": 6,
      "max_drawdown": -0.46322428352908607,
      "observations": 267,
      "risk_on_exposure": 0.4943820224719101,
      "sharpe": 0.8738856432994085,
      "status": "tested",
      "threshold": 0.0,
      "total_return": 8.520536683064504
    },
    {
      "annualized_volatility": 0.11103026378615936,
      "cagr": 0.06086943895168151,
      "claim_kind": "inferred_best_guess",
      "effective_end": "2026-07-31",
      "effective_start": "2004-12-31",
      "exploratory": true,
      "family": "dcom_liquidity",
      "id": "pro-dcom-lag1-lb12-t0",
      "label": "causal inferred DCOM/MTLV2 public-proxy best guess",
      "lag_bars": 1,
      "lookback_months": 12,
      "max_drawdown": -0.46322428352908596,
      "observations": 260,
      "risk_on_exposure": 0.5038461538461538,
      "sharpe": 0.5482238524526434,
      "status": "tested",
      "threshold": 0.0,
      "total_return": 2.5975651733196514
    },
    {
      "annualized_volatility": 0.1213696628970094,
      "cagr": 0.04552318332322858,
      "claim_kind": "inferred_nearby_variant",
      "effective_end": "2026-07-31",
      "effective_start": "2005-10-31",
      "exploratory": true,
      "family": "dcom_liquidity",
      "id": "pro-dcom-lag2-lb21-t0",
      "label": "conservative nearby DCOM lag/lookback variant",
      "lag_bars": 2,
      "lookback_months": 21,
      "max_drawdown": -0.4855107006204703,
      "observations": 250,
      "risk_on_exposure": 0.48,
      "sharpe": 0.375078765456061,
      "status": "tested",
      "threshold": 0.0,
      "total_return": 1.5280446178868803
    },
    {
      "annualized_volatility": 0.15107509187429424,
      "cagr": 0.047335249117604894,
      "claim_kind": "inferred_family_variant",
      "effective_end": "2026-01-31",
      "effective_start": "2002-08-31",
      "exploratory": true,
      "family": "trough_buy",
      "id": "pro-trough-lag1-lb12-t85",
      "label": "causal OCTA trough-buy breadth analogue",
      "lag_bars": 1,
      "lookback_months": 12,
      "max_drawdown": -0.3924283306783982,
      "observations": 109,
      "risk_on_exposure": 0.5068493150684932,
      "sharpe": 0.3133226565037694,
      "status": "tested",
      "threshold": 0.85,
      "total_return": 0.5221073867969033
    },
    {
      "annualized_volatility": 0.13192872435966282,
      "cagr": 0.06531796024599545,
      "claim_kind": "inferred_family_variant",
      "effective_end": "2026-07-31",
      "effective_start": "2004-01-31",
      "exploratory": true,
      "family": "fed_liquidity",
      "id": "pro-fed-lag1-lb12-t0",
      "label": "causal Fed WALCL YoY liquidity analogue",
      "lag_bars": 1,
      "lookback_months": 12,
      "max_drawdown": -0.5078480735726956,
      "observations": 271,
      "risk_on_exposure": 0.6605166051660517,
      "sharpe": 0.4951003700143894,
      "status": "tested",
      "threshold": 0.0,
      "total_return": 3.1741979175420383
    },
    {
      "annualized_volatility": 0.12044549926086863,
      "cagr": 0.07010390613666928,
      "claim_kind": "speculative_extension",
      "effective_end": "2026-07-31",
      "effective_start": "2004-01-31",
      "exploratory": true,
      "family": "combined_overlay",
      "id": "pro-combined-lag1-lb12-t85",
      "label": "causal majority exploratory SPY/IEF overlay",
      "lag_bars": 1,
      "lookback_months": 12,
      "max_drawdown": -0.5078480735726957,
      "observations": 263,
      "risk_on_exposure": 0.44866920152091255,
      "sharpe": 0.5820384038164326,
      "status": "tested",
      "threshold": 0.85,
      "total_return": 3.4148781644987896
    }
  ],
  "event_tables": [],
  "evidence": {},
  "execution_assumptions": {},
  "interactive_specs": [
    {
      "default": "combined_overlay",
      "name": "family",
      "type": "enum",
      "values": [
        "dcom_liquidity",
        "trough_buy",
        "fed_liquidity",
        "combined_overlay"
      ]
    },
    {
      "default": 1,
      "name": "lag_bars",
      "note": "lag 0 is non-causal control only",
      "type": "int",
      "values": [
        0,
        1,
        2
      ]
    },
    {
      "default": 12,
      "name": "lookback_months",
      "type": "int",
      "values": [
        6,
        12,
        21
      ]
    },
    {
      "default": 0.85,
      "name": "threshold",
      "type": "float",
      "values": [
        0.0,
        0.85
      ]
    }
  ],
  "limitations": [
    "Native RecessionAlert observations and proprietary component definitions are absent.",
    "SPY price, VIX, and WALCL proxies are not DCOM, OCTA high-count, or native Fed chart values.",
    "No exact RecessionAlert publication cutoffs, economic release vintages, state precedence, sizing, cost, cash, exit, or re-entry policy is known.",
    "Variant comparisons use different effective spans and exposure levels; no significance, false-signal, or untouched holdout inference is claimed.",
    "Results remain exploratory and are not a recommendation or official indicator registration.",
    "The source page is a family of contextual charts, so no single official indicator is registered."
  ],
  "parameter_grids": [],
  "provenance": {
    "canonical_database": "data/recessionalert.sqlite",
    "effective_spans": "1993-01-31 through 2026-07-31 (SPY panel); common multi-series from 2002-12",
    "inventory": "research/findings/recessionalert_inventory.md",
    "manifest": "research/artifacts/recessionalert/manifest.json",
    "proxy_cache": "data/market.sqlite read-only",
    "proxy_providers": "Yahoo for market OHLCV and FRED for macro series, as recorded in market.sqlite metadata",
    "proxy_series": [
      "SPY",
      "^VIX",
      "IEF",
      "BAA10Y",
      "WALCL"
    ],
    "publication_lag": "Source schedule is recorded; proxy calculations conservatively lag one available observation and execute next bar; exact native cutoffs/vintages unknown",
    "redistribution": "Derived proxy values, hashes, formulas, and metadata only; no cached HTML/media/workbook bytes, credentials, cookies, authenticated URLs, or private account data.",
    "source_fetched_at": "2026-08-22T23:38:33Z",
    "source_page": "https://recessionalert.com/chartspro/",
    "source_page_sha256": "sha256:57ddf56cb62e1dd8ad38fae88849241fa3f07f3dab2188de4b16df00c1c523eb"
  },
  "regime_tables": [],
  "schema_version": "research-publication/v1",
  "series": {
    "availability": "unavailable",
    "dates": [],
    "reason": "No reproducible underlying price and signal-input series are published for this expression."
  },
  "signals": {
    "spec": null,
    "specs": []
  },
  "trial_ledger": []
}