{
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    "required_headings": [
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      "Source",
      "What the source claims",
      "Rules actually disclosed",
      "What had to be inferred",
      "Research questions",
      "Data",
      "Baseline implementation",
      "What the signal looks like",
      "Historical events",
      "State-space exploration",
      "Parameter sensitivity",
      "What worked",
      "What did not work",
      "Why the failures appear to happen",
      "Regime behavior",
      "Timing and cost sensitivity",
      "Combinations",
      "Candidate frontier",
      "Agent assessment",
      "Limitations",
      "What to try interactively",
      "Suggested next research",
      "Promotion status",
      "Trial ledger",
      "Validation protocol",
      "Portfolio contribution"
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      "Candidate frontier": [
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          "id": "d1_vote_gt0_lag1",
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      ],
      "Data": {
        "database": "data/market.sqlite + data/recessionalert.sqlite read-only",
        "fetched_at": "2026-08-22T23:48:34Z",
        "linked_assets": 0,
        "page_sha256": "sha256:629eb608c92292232fba0c1b5c4fc5b6cfade7735f251cb3fb87e64548a34f01",
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      },
      "Limitations": [
        "Not native OPTIMUM parity",
        "On-row assets=0; GIF SHA256 unavailable",
        "Workbook is off-row related crawl object",
        "Publication lag unknown; lag>=1 inferred"
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      "Portfolio contribution": {},
      "Promotion status": "Not promoted \u2014 Research Library only.",
      "Research questions": [
        "Can labeled public proxies and the related OPTIMUM_DATA workbook extract any useful SPY/IEF market-timing overlay from the incomplete OPTIMUM announcement page?"
      ],
      "Rules actually disclosed": [
        "OPTIMUM family relocated to /pro-optimum/ with macro vs bull classes and March 2009 standardized tables.",
        "Named models OPTIMUM-1..5, OPTIMUM-CMHI, STM, D1/D2 diffusion, ANALYZER, alerting/EOD stops.",
        "Page claims explicit entry/exit rules without disclosing series, lookbacks, or thresholds on this SHA."
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      "Source": {
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        "kind": "recessionalert_page",
        "sha256": "sha256:629eb608c92292232fba0c1b5c4fc5b6cfade7735f251cb3fb87e64548a34f01",
        "title": "MODELS : New Optimum Market timing Page | RecessionAlert",
        "url": "https://recessionalert.com/new-optimum-market-timing-page/"
      },
      "Suggested next research": [
        "Does /pro-optimum/ disclose executable formulas that close the fidelity gap?",
        "Can OPTIMUM_DATA.xlsx be linked with page_url provenance in a future crawl?",
        "Do D1/D2 diffusion votes improve crash protection versus single sleeves?"
      ],
      "Summary": [
        "Twenty-five labeled variants executed with lag>=1 causal_primary and lag-0 control_only.",
        "Best causal sharpe among tested variants: bull_sma12_lag1 sharpe=1.031.",
        "Native OPTIMUM fidelity remains NO-GO; publication is Other/Research exploratory_tested_proxy."
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          "note": "Initial exploratory proxy campaign for issue 1536"
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        "Public Sahm/SMA/seasonality/diffusion reconstructions and lagged off-row workbook positions are exploratory stand-ins."
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        "Named models OPTIMUM-1..5, OPTIMUM-CMHI, STM, D1/D2 diffusion, ANALYZER, alerting/EOD stops.",
        "Page claims explicit entry/exit rules without disclosing series, lookbacks, or thresholds on this SHA.",
        "Public Sahm/SMA/seasonality/diffusion reconstructions and lagged off-row workbook positions are exploratory stand-ins."
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      "What to try interactively": [
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            2
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    "title": "MODELS : New Optimum Market timing Page | RecessionAlert"
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    "status": "published",
    "title": "MODELS : New Optimum Market timing Page | RecessionAlert"
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