{
  "article": {
    "official_admission": false,
    "required_headings": [
      "Summary",
      "Source",
      "What the source claims",
      "Rules actually disclosed",
      "What had to be inferred",
      "Research questions",
      "Data",
      "Baseline implementation",
      "What the signal looks like",
      "Historical events",
      "State-space exploration",
      "Parameter sensitivity",
      "What worked",
      "What did not work",
      "Why the failures appear to happen",
      "Regime behavior",
      "Timing and cost sensitivity",
      "Combinations",
      "Candidate frontier",
      "Agent assessment",
      "Limitations",
      "What to try interactively",
      "Suggested next research",
      "Promotion status",
      "Trial ledger",
      "Validation protocol",
      "Portfolio contribution"
    ],
    "research_tags": [
      "data_limited",
      "fidelity_mismatch",
      "needs_more_research",
      "parameter_sensitive",
      "useful_as_portfolio_overlay",
      "predictive_not_tradable",
      "interesting_negative_result"
    ],
    "sections": {
      "Baseline implementation": {
        "claim_kind": "inferred_best_guess",
        "classification": "exploratory inferred public proxy; not native Selling Pressure series",
        "driver": "^GSPC",
        "family": "six-component-original",
        "id": "spi-six-component-original-lag1-gspc",
        "label": "spi six component original lag1 gspc",
        "metrics": {
          "benchmark_cagr": 0.11140190415690854,
          "benchmark_total_return": 11.590070391694116,
          "cagr": 0.14039421632491988,
          "cagr_delta_vs_buy_hold": 0.028992312168011347,
          "event_rate": 0.10357971494862446,
          "events": 625,
          "n_bars": 6034,
          "sharpe": 0.8057627446565867,
          "total_return": 22.34676375244997,
          "vol": 0.18444314157707326
        },
        "params": {
          "lag_bars": 1,
          "sell_level": null
        },
        "source_fidelity": false,
        "span": {
          "end": "2026-07-24",
          "n_bars": 24757,
          "start": "1927-12-30"
        }
      },
      "Candidate frontier": [
        {
          "cagr": 0.14306870744065137,
          "category": "best_sharpe",
          "id": "spi-breadth-advisory-gate-lag1-gspc",
          "interpretation": "Best tested Sharpe among causal lag>=1 variants; exploratory proxy only.",
          "sharpe": 0.8184869945314879
        },
        {
          "category": "best_long_history",
          "id": "spi-six-component-original-lag1-gspc",
          "interpretation": "Six-component original diffusion with causal lag 1 on ^GSPC long history.",
          "span": {
            "end": "2026-07-24",
            "n_bars": 24757,
            "start": "1927-12-30"
          }
        },
        {
          "category": "simplest_reasonable",
          "id": "spi-six-component-original-lag1-gspc",
          "interpretation": "Documented buy rule: diffusion rises above 4 then falls below 4."
        },
        {
          "category": "best_recent",
          "events": 703,
          "id": "spi-component-grid-w21-c3-lag1-gspc",
          "interpretation": "Highest event count variant; descriptive only."
        }
      ],
      "Data": {
        "execution": "lag_bars>=1 primary; lag 0 control labeled non-causal",
        "redistribution": "Publish derived exploratory research only; no native series redistribution.",
        "related_sha256": "sha256:76f47bf6362c355a9ca647cd01296befaf696a50770a5069b00154236892be0f",
        "source_sha256": "sha256:c41fb90db6a299667062ed511ed8dacb12c603db6be4640cf26ec01d20dbbd34"
      },
      "Limitations": [
        "No native Selling Pressure component or diffusion series in checked-in snapshot.",
        "Six component rolling windows and prevalence thresholds are labeled inferred proxies.",
        "Breadth advisory +1 uses Great Trough/Zweig workbook markers, not live chart integration.",
        "Exact 5-minute subscriber refresh cadence cannot be reproduced from daily closes."
      ],
      "Portfolio contribution": {},
      "Promotion status": "Not promoted \u2014 Research Library only.",
      "Research questions": [
        "Can disclosed six-component Selling Pressure diffusion rules be tested with SPY/^GSPC/^VIX proxies when native RA series are absent?"
      ],
      "Rules actually disclosed": [
        "Six price-action components form a Selling Pressure Diffusion; BUY when diffusion rises above 4 then falls below 4; sell warnings on 0->1 and optional 1->2.",
        "Percentage correction threshold is disclosed as 4% from a prior peak; relative strength, ROC, and prevalence windows/cutoffs remain chart-only."
      ],
      "Source": {
        "fetched_at": "2026-08-22T23:43:32Z",
        "native_span": "No native component/diffusion series in snapshot",
        "published_at": "2013-09-10",
        "related_sha256": "sha256:76f47bf6362c355a9ca647cd01296befaf696a50770a5069b00154236892be0f",
        "related_url": "https://recessionalert.com/improved-sp-500-selling-pressure-index-subscribers-only/",
        "sha256": "sha256:c41fb90db6a299667062ed511ed8dacb12c603db6be4640cf26ec01d20dbbd34",
        "title": "Measuring Selling Pressure for Market Entry Timing | RecessionAlert",
        "url": "https://recessionalert.com/measuring-selling-pressure-for-market-entry-timing/"
      },
      "Suggested next research": [
        "Obtain native Selling Pressure component and diffusion history for parity validation.",
        "Resolve undisclosed rolling windows and optimal trigger levels from subscriber charts.",
        "Test 5-minute refresh semantics versus daily close proxies.",
        "Compare six-component reconstructions against the later Improved/DeMark page owned by issue 1429."
      ],
      "Summary": [
        "Measuring Selling Pressure (2013-09-10) discloses a six-component SP-500 selling-pressure diffusion, a numeric 4% peak-to-trough correction trigger, BUY when diffusion rises above 4 then falls below 4, and sell warnings on 0->1 and 1->2.",
        "Relative strength, ROC, down-day/double-down/large-down windows and cutoffs remain chart-only; labeled 21-day proxies and a nearby parameter grid were used without claiming source parity.",
        "Subscriber chart 5-minute cadence and native diffusion series are absent from the checked-in snapshot (zero linked assets).",
        "15 labeled public-proxy variants executed on ^GSPC/SPY/IEF/^VIX; exploratory inferred reconstructions only.",
        "Best tested causal Sharpe: spi-breadth-advisory-gate-lag1-gspc (0.8184869945314879).",
        "Disposition is exploratory_tested_proxy with explicit no-go for playable Other/Indicators fidelity promotion."
      ],
      "Trial ledger": [
        {
          "number": 1,
          "status": "published",
          "variants": 15
        }
      ],
      "Validation protocol": {},
      "What had to be inferred": [
        "15 labeled public-proxy variants on ^GSPC/SPY/IEF/^VIX without native Selling Pressure series."
      ],
      "What the source claims": [
        "Six price-action components form a Selling Pressure Diffusion; BUY when diffusion rises above 4 then falls below 4; sell warnings on 0->1 and optional 1->2.",
        "Percentage correction threshold is disclosed as 4% from a prior peak; relative strength, ROC, and prevalence windows/cutoffs remain chart-only.",
        "15 labeled public-proxy variants on ^GSPC/SPY/IEF/^VIX without native Selling Pressure series."
      ],
      "What to try interactively": [
        {
          "name": "lag_bars",
          "values": [
            0,
            1,
            2
          ]
        }
      ]
    },
    "title": "Measuring Selling Pressure for Market Entry Timing | RecessionAlert \u2014 exploratory proxy campaign"
  },
  "campaign": {
    "campaign_id": "recessionalert-measuring-selling-pressure-1473",
    "iteration_number": 1,
    "research_tags": [
      "data_limited",
      "fidelity_mismatch",
      "needs_more_research",
      "parameter_sensitive",
      "useful_as_portfolio_overlay",
      "predictive_not_tradable",
      "interesting_negative_result"
    ],
    "status": "published",
    "title": "Measuring Selling Pressure for Market Entry Timing | RecessionAlert \u2014 exploratory proxy campaign"
  },
  "candidate_frontier": [
    {
      "cagr": 0.14306870744065137,
      "category": "best_sharpe",
      "id": "spi-breadth-advisory-gate-lag1-gspc",
      "interpretation": "Best tested Sharpe among causal lag>=1 variants; exploratory proxy only.",
      "sharpe": 0.8184869945314879
    },
    {
      "category": "best_long_history",
      "id": "spi-six-component-original-lag1-gspc",
      "interpretation": "Six-component original diffusion with causal lag 1 on ^GSPC long history.",
      "span": {
        "end": "2026-07-24",
        "n_bars": 24757,
        "start": "1927-12-30"
      }
    },
    {
      "category": "simplest_reasonable",
      "id": "spi-six-component-original-lag1-gspc",
      "interpretation": "Documented buy rule: diffusion rises above 4 then falls below 4."
    },
    {
      "category": "best_recent",
      "events": 703,
      "id": "spi-component-grid-w21-c3-lag1-gspc",
      "interpretation": "Highest event count variant; descriptive only."
    }
  ],
  "candidate_variants": [
    {
      "claim_kind": "inferred_best_guess",
      "classification": "exploratory inferred public proxy; not native Selling Pressure series",
      "driver": "^GSPC",
      "family": "six-component-original",
      "id": "spi-six-component-original-lag1-gspc",
      "label": "spi six component original lag1 gspc",
      "metrics": {
        "benchmark_cagr": 0.11140190415690854,
        "benchmark_total_return": 11.590070391694116,
        "cagr": 0.14039421632491988,
        "cagr_delta_vs_buy_hold": 0.028992312168011347,
        "event_rate": 0.10357971494862446,
        "events": 625,
        "n_bars": 6034,
        "sharpe": 0.8057627446565867,
        "total_return": 22.34676375244997,
        "vol": 0.18444314157707326
      },
      "params": {
        "lag_bars": 1,
        "sell_level": null
      },
      "source_fidelity": false,
      "span": {
        "end": "2026-07-24",
        "n_bars": 24757,
        "start": "1927-12-30"
      }
    },
    {
      "claim_kind": "inferred_nearby_variant",
      "classification": "exploratory inferred public proxy; not native Selling Pressure series",
      "driver": "^GSPC",
      "family": "six-component-original",
      "id": "spi-six-component-original-lag2-gspc",
      "label": "spi six component original lag2 gspc",
      "metrics": {
        "benchmark_cagr": 0.11140190415690854,
        "benchmark_total_return": 11.590070391694116,
        "cagr": 0.11328963431481753,
        "cagr_delta_vs_buy_hold": 0.0018877301579089956,
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      }
    },
    {
      "claim_kind": "control_only",
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      "driver": "^GSPC",
      "family": "six-component-original",
      "id": "spi-six-component-original-lag0-control",
      "label": "spi six component original lag0 control",
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      "id": "spi-breadth-advisory-gate-lag1-gspc",
      "label": "spi breadth advisory gate lag1 gspc",
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      "family": "breadth-advisory-gate",
      "id": "spi-breadth-advisory-gate-lag2-gspc",
      "label": "spi breadth advisory gate lag2 gspc",
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      "claim_kind": "control_only",
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      "driver": "^GSPC",
      "family": "breadth-advisory-gate",
      "id": "spi-breadth-advisory-gate-lag0-control",
      "label": "spi breadth advisory gate lag0 control",
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      "family": "component-parameter-grid",
      "id": "spi-component-grid-w10-c4-lag1-gspc",
      "label": "spi component grid w10 c4 lag1 gspc",
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      "label": "spi component grid w21 c3 lag1 gspc",
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      "label": "spi component grid w42 c5 lag1 gspc",
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      "claim_kind": "documented_sell_warning",
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      "claim_kind": "documented_sell_warning",
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      "id": "spi-sell-warning1-lag2-gspc",
      "label": "spi sell warning1 lag2 gspc",
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      }
    },
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      "claim_kind": "documented_sell_warning",
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      "driver": "^GSPC",
      "family": "sell-warning-overlay",
      "id": "spi-sell-warning2-lag2-gspc",
      "label": "spi sell warning2 lag2 gspc",
      "metrics": {
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        "lag_bars": 2,
        "sell_level": 2
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      "span": {
        "end": "2026-07-24",
        "n_bars": 24757,
        "start": "1927-12-30"
      }
    },
    {
      "claim_kind": "inferred_portfolio_overlay",
      "classification": "exploratory inferred public proxy; not native Selling Pressure series",
      "driver": "^GSPC",
      "family": "spy-ief-buy-overlay",
      "id": "spi-buy-overlay-lag1-spy-ief",
      "label": "spi buy overlay lag1 spy ief",
      "metrics": {
        "benchmark_cagr": 0.11140190415690854,
        "benchmark_total_return": 11.590070391694116,
        "cagr": 0.14039421632491988,
        "cagr_delta_vs_buy_hold": 0.028992312168011347,
        "event_rate": 0.10357971494862446,
        "events": 625,
        "n_bars": 6034,
        "sharpe": 0.8057627446565867,
        "total_return": 22.34676375244997,
        "vol": 0.18444314157707326
      },
      "params": {
        "lag_bars": 1,
        "sell_level": null
      },
      "source_fidelity": false,
      "span": {
        "end": "2026-07-24",
        "n_bars": 24757,
        "start": "1927-12-30"
      }
    },
    {
      "claim_kind": "inferred_portfolio_overlay",
      "classification": "exploratory inferred public proxy; not native Selling Pressure series",
      "driver": "^GSPC",
      "family": "spy-ief-buy-overlay",
      "id": "spi-buy-overlay-lag2-spy-ief",
      "label": "spi buy overlay lag2 spy ief",
      "metrics": {
        "benchmark_cagr": 0.11140190415690854,
        "benchmark_total_return": 11.590070391694116,
        "cagr": 0.11328963431481753,
        "cagr_delta_vs_buy_hold": 0.0018877301579089956,
        "event_rate": 0.10357971494862446,
        "events": 625,
        "n_bars": 6034,
        "sharpe": 0.6729063587341485,
        "total_return": 12.11302010104222,
        "vol": 0.1852748554921099
      },
      "params": {
        "lag_bars": 2,
        "sell_level": null
      },
      "source_fidelity": false,
      "span": {
        "end": "2026-07-24",
        "n_bars": 24757,
        "start": "1927-12-30"
      }
    }
  ],
  "event_tables": [],
  "evidence": {},
  "execution_assumptions": {},
  "interactive_specs": [
    {
      "name": "lag_bars",
      "values": [
        0,
        1,
        2
      ]
    }
  ],
  "limitations": [
    "No native Selling Pressure component or diffusion series in checked-in snapshot.",
    "Six component rolling windows and prevalence thresholds are labeled inferred proxies.",
    "Breadth advisory +1 uses Great Trough/Zweig workbook markers, not live chart integration.",
    "Exact 5-minute subscriber refresh cadence cannot be reproduced from daily closes."
  ],
  "parameter_grids": [],
  "provenance": {
    "execution": "lag_bars>=1 primary; lag 0 control labeled non-causal",
    "redistribution": "Publish derived exploratory research only; no native series redistribution.",
    "related_sha256": "sha256:76f47bf6362c355a9ca647cd01296befaf696a50770a5069b00154236892be0f",
    "source_sha256": "sha256:c41fb90db6a299667062ed511ed8dacb12c603db6be4640cf26ec01d20dbbd34"
  },
  "regime_tables": [],
  "schema_version": "research-publication/v1",
  "series": {
    "availability": "unavailable",
    "dates": [],
    "reason": "No reproducible underlying price and signal-input series are published for this expression."
  },
  "signals": {
    "spec": null,
    "specs": []
  },
  "trial_ledger": []
}