{
  "article": {
    "official_admission": false,
    "required_headings": [
      "Summary",
      "Source",
      "What the source claims",
      "Rules actually disclosed",
      "What had to be inferred",
      "Research questions",
      "Data",
      "Baseline implementation",
      "What the signal looks like",
      "Historical events",
      "State-space exploration",
      "Parameter sensitivity",
      "What worked",
      "What did not work",
      "Why the failures appear to happen",
      "Regime behavior",
      "Timing and cost sensitivity",
      "Combinations",
      "Candidate frontier",
      "Agent assessment",
      "Limitations",
      "What to try interactively",
      "Suggested next research",
      "Promotion status",
      "Trial ledger",
      "Validation protocol",
      "Portfolio contribution"
    ],
    "research_tags": [],
    "sections": {
      "Baseline implementation": {
        "claim_kind": "documented",
        "driver": "^GSPC",
        "family": "documented-probability-top3",
        "id": "prob_gt50_lag1",
        "lag_bars": 1,
        "lookback": 12,
        "metrics": {
          "cagr": 0.03809210141578134,
          "events": 17,
          "max_drawdown": -0.3805246742009445,
          "n_months": 402,
          "sharpe": 0.4475336218099807,
          "time_in_market": 0.09925558312655088,
          "vol": 0.09339816575244447
        },
        "span": {
          "end": "2026-07-31",
          "start": "1993-02-28"
        },
        "threshold": 0.5
      },
      "Candidate frontier": [
        {
          "cagr": 0.10440994738389264,
          "category": "best_sharpe",
          "id": "recession_vote_2of4_lag1",
          "interpretation": "Best lag>=1 Sharpe among tested public-proxy variants; not RA parity.",
          "sharpe": 0.8855705047342034
        },
        {
          "category": "best_source_fidelity",
          "id": "prob_gt50_lag1",
          "interpretation": "Documented >50% TOP-3 zone analogue on public factors."
        },
        {
          "category": "best_long_history",
          "id": "recession_vote_2of4_lag1",
          "interpretation": "Macro ensemble on length-max substitutes; evaluated on shared SPY panel."
        },
        {
          "category": "simplest_reasonable",
          "id": "momentum_vol_credit_lag1",
          "interpretation": "Inferred probability-proxy vote with one-bar lag."
        }
      ],
      "Data": {
        "canonical_sha256": "sha256:9117e99a2035ae8419163cfcfff0a659aeb4d8b6ec374a6bcc481bbdd6b40cce",
        "canonical_source": "research/artifacts/recessionalert/manifest.json + inventory + read-only data/recessionalert.sqlite",
        "database_policy": "mode=ro query_only; no crawl or market mutation",
        "proxy_inputs": "Yahoo/FRED series in data/market.sqlite plus BAA-GS10 and GS10-TB3MS splices",
        "redistribution": "Derived metrics, hashes, charts, notebook only; no raw HTML/media/credentials"
      },
      "Limitations": [
        "Native RA panes absent from crawl",
        "Public proxies are not official RA series",
        "Publication lag undisclosed; lag>=1 assumed",
        "No playable indicator registration"
      ],
      "Portfolio contribution": {},
      "Promotion status": "Not promoted \u2014 Research Library only.",
      "Research questions": [
        "Can public proxies extract causal timing insight from the Market & Economic Dashboard when native TOP-3/liquidity/RFE/leading series are absent?"
      ],
      "Rules actually disclosed": [
        "Higher of TOP-3 trough/peak averages; >50% actionable zones; sign encodes trough vs peak.",
        "Diffusion gauges with 12-o-clock neutral; SPD inverted.",
        "RFE-5..RFE-14 recession-flag counts; rising counts bearish.",
        "WLEI2/SUPERINDEX/USMLEI/USLONG/HOUSING/LABOR with 1968 recession-history shading.",
        "No single dashboard-wide buy/sell/hold or portfolio map."
      ],
      "Source": {
        "fetched_at": "2026-08-22T23:47:02Z",
        "native_span": "2020-01-07 article; no observation table; 0 assets",
        "published_at": "2020-01-07",
        "sha256": "sha256:9117e99a2035ae8419163cfcfff0a659aeb4d8b6ec374a6bcc481bbdd6b40cce",
        "title": "The Market & Economic Dashboard | RecessionAlert",
        "url": "https://recessionalert.com/market-economic-dashboard/"
      },
      "Suggested next research": [
        "Authorized RA asset refresh?",
        "Import CFNAI/USSLIND/ICSA into market cache?",
        "Better NYSE breadth proxy for SPD?"
      ],
      "Summary": [
        "SHA-verified dashboard discloses multi-pane gauge semantics without observation tables.",
        "Public substitutes and splices (T10Y3MM, INDPRO, HOUST, NFCILEVERAGE, BAA-GS10, GS10-TB3MS) enable tested signals.",
        "16 variants executed; best causal Sharpe id=recession_vote_2of4_lag1.",
        "No playable Other-indicators registration; disposition exploratory_tested_proxy under Other/Research."
      ],
      "Trial ledger": [
        {
          "iteration": 1,
          "status": "published",
          "summary": "Offline public-proxy Market & Economic Dashboard campaign published."
        }
      ],
      "Validation protocol": {},
      "What had to be inferred": [
        "Sixteen labeled public-proxy variants with lag/threshold/lookback neighbors."
      ],
      "What the source claims": [
        "Higher of TOP-3 trough/peak averages; >50% actionable zones; sign encodes trough vs peak.",
        "Diffusion gauges with 12-o-clock neutral; SPD inverted.",
        "RFE-5..RFE-14 recession-flag counts; rising counts bearish.",
        "WLEI2/SUPERINDEX/USMLEI/USLONG/HOUSING/LABOR with 1968 recession-history shading.",
        "No single dashboard-wide buy/sell/hold or portfolio map.",
        "Sixteen labeled public-proxy variants with lag/threshold/lookback neighbors."
      ],
      "What to try interactively": [
        {
          "default": "recession_vote_2of4_lag1",
          "description": "Select an exploratory proxy variant.",
          "name": "variant",
          "values": [
            "prob_gt50_lag1",
            "prob_gt40_lag1",
            "prob_gt60_lag1",
            "momentum_vol_credit_lag1",
            "probability_lag0_control",
            "diffusion_count_lag1",
            "stress_1of5_lag1",
            "recession_vote_2of4_lag1",
            "recession_vote_3of4_lag1",
            "stress_zone_lag1",
            "majority_vote_lag1",
            "composite_risk_on_lag1",
            "diffusion_lb6_stress1_lag1",
            "diffusion_lb6_stress3_lag1",
            "diffusion_lb21_stress1_lag1",
            "diffusion_lb21_stress3_lag1"
          ]
        },
        {
          "default": 1,
          "description": "Lag 1 is causal baseline; lag 0 is control only.",
          "name": "execution_lag",
          "values": [
            0,
            1,
            2
          ]
        },
        {
          "default": 0.5,
          "description": "Documented >50% zone neighbors.",
          "name": "probability_threshold",
          "values": [
            0.4,
            0.5,
            0.6
          ]
        }
      ]
    },
    "title": "The Market & Economic Dashboard | RecessionAlert \u2014 exploratory proxy campaign"
  },
  "campaign": {
    "campaign_id": "recessionalert-market-economic-dashboard-1443",
    "iteration_number": 1,
    "research_tags": [],
    "status": "published",
    "title": "The Market & Economic Dashboard | RecessionAlert \u2014 exploratory proxy campaign"
  },
  "candidate_frontier": [
    {
      "cagr": 0.10440994738389264,
      "category": "best_sharpe",
      "id": "recession_vote_2of4_lag1",
      "interpretation": "Best lag>=1 Sharpe among tested public-proxy variants; not RA parity.",
      "sharpe": 0.8855705047342034
    },
    {
      "category": "best_source_fidelity",
      "id": "prob_gt50_lag1",
      "interpretation": "Documented >50% TOP-3 zone analogue on public factors."
    },
    {
      "category": "best_long_history",
      "id": "recession_vote_2of4_lag1",
      "interpretation": "Macro ensemble on length-max substitutes; evaluated on shared SPY panel."
    },
    {
      "category": "simplest_reasonable",
      "id": "momentum_vol_credit_lag1",
      "interpretation": "Inferred probability-proxy vote with one-bar lag."
    }
  ],
  "candidate_variants": [
    {
      "claim_kind": "documented",
      "driver": "^GSPC",
      "family": "documented-probability-top3",
      "id": "prob_gt50_lag1",
      "lag_bars": 1,
      "lookback": 12,
      "metrics": {
        "cagr": 0.03809210141578134,
        "events": 17,
        "max_drawdown": -0.3805246742009445,
        "n_months": 402,
        "sharpe": 0.4475336218099807,
        "time_in_market": 0.09925558312655088,
        "vol": 0.09339816575244447
      },
      "span": {
        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "start": "1993-02-28"
      },
      "threshold": 0.5
    },
    {
      "claim_kind": "documented",
      "driver": "^GSPC",
      "family": "documented-probability-top3",
      "id": "prob_gt40_lag1",
      "lag_bars": 1,
      "lookback": 12,
      "metrics": {
        "cagr": 0.022687951357441172,
        "events": 27,
        "max_drawdown": -0.5078480735726958,
        "n_months": 402,
        "sharpe": 0.2637906177580655,
        "time_in_market": 0.20099255583126552,
        "vol": 0.10697024227517975
      },
      "span": {
        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "start": "1993-02-28"
      },
      "threshold": 0.4
    },
    {
      "claim_kind": "documented",
      "driver": "^GSPC",
      "family": "documented-probability-top3",
      "id": "prob_gt60_lag1",
      "lag_bars": 1,
      "lookback": 12,
      "metrics": {
        "cagr": 0.03809210141578134,
        "events": 17,
        "max_drawdown": -0.3805246742009445,
        "n_months": 402,
        "sharpe": 0.4475336218099807,
        "time_in_market": 0.09925558312655088,
        "vol": 0.09339816575244447
      },
      "span": {
        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "start": "1993-02-28"
      },
      "threshold": 0.6
    },
    {
      "claim_kind": "inferred",
      "driver": "^GSPC",
      "family": "probability-proxy-vote",
      "id": "momentum_vol_credit_lag1",
      "lag_bars": 1,
      "lookback": 12,
      "metrics": {
        "cagr": 0.03809210141578134,
        "events": 17,
        "max_drawdown": -0.3805246742009445,
        "n_months": 402,
        "sharpe": 0.4475336218099807,
        "time_in_market": 0.09925558312655088,
        "vol": 0.09339816575244447
      },
      "span": {
        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "start": "1993-02-28"
      },
      "threshold": 0.5
    },
    {
      "claim_kind": "control_only",
      "driver": "^GSPC",
      "family": "probability-proxy-vote",
      "id": "probability_lag0_control",
      "lag_bars": 0,
      "lookback": 12,
      "metrics": {
        "cagr": -0.03814781694098501,
        "events": 17,
        "max_drawdown": -0.7634867262343253,
        "n_months": 402,
        "sharpe": -0.3488451973137753,
        "time_in_market": 0.09925558312655088,
        "vol": 0.09732321574443806
      },
      "span": {
        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "start": "1993-02-28"
      },
      "threshold": 0.5
    },
    {
      "claim_kind": "inferred",
      "driver": "SPY",
      "family": "breadth-liquidity-diffusion",
      "id": "diffusion_count_lag1",
      "lag_bars": 1,
      "lookback": 12,
      "metrics": {
        "cagr": 0.03142159370838238,
        "events": 46,
        "max_drawdown": -0.1928610665123277,
        "n_months": 402,
        "sharpe": 0.40789911974705606,
        "time_in_market": 0.228287841191067,
        "vol": 0.08478457475772372
      },
      "span": {
        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "start": "1993-02-28"
      },
      "threshold": 0.5
    },
    {
      "claim_kind": "inferred",
      "driver": "SPY",
      "family": "breadth-liquidity-diffusion",
      "id": "stress_1of5_lag1",
      "lag_bars": 1,
      "lookback": 12,
      "metrics": {
        "cagr": 0.07295030481343812,
        "events": 48,
        "max_drawdown": -0.2417027516460657,
        "n_months": 402,
        "sharpe": 0.7345056569799974,
        "time_in_market": 0.5682382133995038,
        "vol": 0.10342006953256146
      },
      "span": {
        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "start": "1993-02-28"
      },
      "threshold": 0.5
    },
    {
      "claim_kind": "inferred",
      "driver": "INDPRO",
      "family": "macro-ensemble-rfe-count",
      "id": "recession_vote_2of4_lag1",
      "lag_bars": 1,
      "lookback": 12,
      "metrics": {
        "cagr": 0.10440994738389264,
        "events": 26,
        "max_drawdown": -0.23927178828328333,
        "n_months": 402,
        "sharpe": 0.8855705047342034,
        "time_in_market": 0.6947890818858561,
        "vol": 0.12082290055257298
      },
      "span": {
        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "start": "1993-02-28"
      },
      "threshold": 0.5
    },
    {
      "claim_kind": "inferred",
      "driver": "INDPRO",
      "family": "macro-ensemble-rfe-count",
      "id": "recession_vote_3of4_lag1",
      "lag_bars": 1,
      "lookback": 12,
      "metrics": {
        "cagr": 0.09982091728925657,
        "events": 14,
        "max_drawdown": -0.436153082430632,
        "n_months": 402,
        "sharpe": 0.7882912423867328,
        "time_in_market": 0.8684863523573201,
        "vol": 0.13229706613711162
      },
      "span": {
        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "start": "1993-02-28"
      },
      "threshold": 0.5
    },
    {
      "claim_kind": "inferred",
      "driver": "INDPRO",
      "family": "leading-macro-stress",
      "id": "stress_zone_lag1",
      "lag_bars": 1,
      "lookback": 12,
      "metrics": {
        "cagr": 0.10440994738389264,
        "events": 26,
        "max_drawdown": -0.23927178828328333,
        "n_months": 402,
        "sharpe": 0.8855705047342034,
        "time_in_market": 0.6947890818858561,
        "vol": 0.12082290055257298
      },
      "span": {
        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "start": "1993-02-28"
      },
      "threshold": 0.5
    },
    {
      "claim_kind": "speculative_extension",
      "driver": "SPY",
      "family": "medash-composite-vote",
      "id": "majority_vote_lag1",
      "lag_bars": 1,
      "lookback": 12,
      "metrics": {
        "cagr": 0.03834791434649487,
        "events": 38,
        "max_drawdown": -0.175408451545236,
        "n_months": 402,
        "sharpe": 0.4585418819948274,
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        "vol": 0.09121816311352696
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      "span": {
        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "start": "1993-02-28"
      },
      "threshold": 0.5
    },
    {
      "claim_kind": "inferred",
      "driver": "SPY",
      "family": "spy-ief-risk-overlay",
      "id": "composite_risk_on_lag1",
      "lag_bars": 1,
      "lookback": 12,
      "metrics": {
        "cagr": 0.03834791434649487,
        "events": 38,
        "max_drawdown": -0.175408451545236,
        "n_months": 402,
        "sharpe": 0.4585418819948274,
        "time_in_market": 0.1761786600496278,
        "vol": 0.09121816311352696
      },
      "span": {
        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "start": "1993-02-28"
      },
      "threshold": 0.5
    },
    {
      "claim_kind": "inferred",
      "driver": "SPY",
      "family": "breadth-liquidity-diffusion",
      "id": "diffusion_lb6_stress1_lag1",
      "lag_bars": 1,
      "lookback": 6,
      "metrics": {
        "cagr": 0.048764120057995575,
        "events": 71,
        "max_drawdown": -0.29957554925553054,
        "n_months": 402,
        "sharpe": 0.5224634455788579,
        "time_in_market": 0.5062034739454094,
        "vol": 0.10118266125222669
      },
      "span": {
        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "start": "1993-02-28"
      },
      "stress_count_threshold": 1,
      "threshold": null
    },
    {
      "claim_kind": "inferred",
      "driver": "SPY",
      "family": "breadth-liquidity-diffusion",
      "id": "diffusion_lb6_stress3_lag1",
      "lag_bars": 1,
      "lookback": 6,
      "metrics": {
        "cagr": 0.01839142272980987,
        "events": 19,
        "max_drawdown": -0.21370878119060555,
        "n_months": 402,
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        "time_in_market": 0.062034739454094295,
        "vol": 0.06810788853656488
      },
      "span": {
        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "start": "1993-02-28"
      },
      "stress_count_threshold": 3,
      "threshold": null
    },
    {
      "claim_kind": "inferred",
      "driver": "SPY",
      "family": "breadth-liquidity-diffusion",
      "id": "diffusion_lb21_stress1_lag1",
      "lag_bars": 1,
      "lookback": 21,
      "metrics": {
        "cagr": 0.08432283314849975,
        "events": 39,
        "max_drawdown": -0.27174997348498975,
        "n_months": 402,
        "sharpe": 0.8301442067871688,
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        "vol": 0.10441010433600281
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      "span": {
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        "start": "1993-02-28"
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      "stress_count_threshold": 1,
      "threshold": null
    },
    {
      "claim_kind": "inferred",
      "driver": "SPY",
      "family": "breadth-liquidity-diffusion",
      "id": "diffusion_lb21_stress3_lag1",
      "lag_bars": 1,
      "lookback": 21,
      "metrics": {
        "cagr": 0.0171793890205183,
        "events": 20,
        "max_drawdown": -0.21724959521464648,
        "n_months": 402,
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        "vol": 0.07317311452117005
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      "span": {
        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "start": "1993-02-28"
      },
      "stress_count_threshold": 3,
      "threshold": null
    }
  ],
  "event_tables": [],
  "evidence": {},
  "execution_assumptions": {},
  "interactive_specs": [
    {
      "default": "recession_vote_2of4_lag1",
      "description": "Select an exploratory proxy variant.",
      "name": "variant",
      "values": [
        "prob_gt50_lag1",
        "prob_gt40_lag1",
        "prob_gt60_lag1",
        "momentum_vol_credit_lag1",
        "probability_lag0_control",
        "diffusion_count_lag1",
        "stress_1of5_lag1",
        "recession_vote_2of4_lag1",
        "recession_vote_3of4_lag1",
        "stress_zone_lag1",
        "majority_vote_lag1",
        "composite_risk_on_lag1",
        "diffusion_lb6_stress1_lag1",
        "diffusion_lb6_stress3_lag1",
        "diffusion_lb21_stress1_lag1",
        "diffusion_lb21_stress3_lag1"
      ]
    },
    {
      "default": 1,
      "description": "Lag 1 is causal baseline; lag 0 is control only.",
      "name": "execution_lag",
      "values": [
        0,
        1,
        2
      ]
    },
    {
      "default": 0.5,
      "description": "Documented >50% zone neighbors.",
      "name": "probability_threshold",
      "values": [
        0.4,
        0.5,
        0.6
      ]
    }
  ],
  "limitations": [
    "Native RA panes absent from crawl",
    "Public proxies are not official RA series",
    "Publication lag undisclosed; lag>=1 assumed",
    "No playable indicator registration"
  ],
  "parameter_grids": [],
  "provenance": {
    "canonical_sha256": "sha256:9117e99a2035ae8419163cfcfff0a659aeb4d8b6ec374a6bcc481bbdd6b40cce",
    "canonical_source": "research/artifacts/recessionalert/manifest.json + inventory + read-only data/recessionalert.sqlite",
    "database_policy": "mode=ro query_only; no crawl or market mutation",
    "proxy_inputs": "Yahoo/FRED series in data/market.sqlite plus BAA-GS10 and GS10-TB3MS splices",
    "redistribution": "Derived metrics, hashes, charts, notebook only; no raw HTML/media/credentials"
  },
  "regime_tables": [],
  "schema_version": "research-publication/v1",
  "series": {
    "availability": "unavailable",
    "dates": [],
    "reason": "No reproducible underlying price and signal-input series are published for this expression."
  },
  "signals": {
    "spec": null,
    "specs": []
  },
  "trial_ledger": []
}