{
  "article": {
    "official_admission": false,
    "required_headings": [
      "Summary",
      "Source",
      "What the source claims",
      "Rules actually disclosed",
      "What had to be inferred",
      "Research questions",
      "Data",
      "Baseline implementation",
      "What the signal looks like",
      "Historical events",
      "State-space exploration",
      "Parameter sensitivity",
      "What worked",
      "What did not work",
      "Why the failures appear to happen",
      "Regime behavior",
      "Timing and cost sensitivity",
      "Combinations",
      "Candidate frontier",
      "Agent assessment",
      "Limitations",
      "What to try interactively",
      "Suggested next research",
      "Promotion status",
      "Trial ledger",
      "Validation protocol",
      "Portfolio contribution"
    ],
    "research_tags": [
      "data_limited",
      "fidelity_mismatch",
      "needs_more_research",
      "parameter_sensitive",
      "useful_as_portfolio_overlay",
      "predictive_not_tradable",
      "interesting_negative_result"
    ],
    "sections": {
      "Baseline implementation": {
        "claim_kind": "inferred_nearby_variant",
        "classification": "exploratory inferred public proxy; not native Selling Pressure series",
        "driver": "^GSPC",
        "family": "six-component-original",
        "id": "spi-six-component-original-lag1-gspc",
        "label": "spi six component original lag1 gspc",
        "metrics": {
          "benchmark_cagr": 0.11140190415690854,
          "benchmark_total_return": 11.590070391694116,
          "cagr": 0.14039421632491988,
          "cagr_delta_vs_buy_hold": 0.028992312168011347,
          "event_rate": 0.10357971494862446,
          "events": 625,
          "n_bars": 6034,
          "sharpe": 0.8057627446565867,
          "total_return": 22.34676375244997,
          "vol": 0.18444314157707326
        },
        "params": {
          "lag_bars": 1,
          "sell_level": null
        },
        "source_fidelity": false,
        "span": {
          "end": "2026-07-24",
          "n_bars": 24757,
          "start": "1927-12-30"
        }
      },
      "Candidate frontier": [
        {
          "cagr": 0.14039421632491988,
          "category": "best_sharpe",
          "id": "spi-six-component-original-lag1-gspc",
          "interpretation": "Best tested Sharpe among causal lag>=1 variants; exploratory proxy only.",
          "sharpe": 0.8057627446565867
        },
        {
          "category": "best_long_history",
          "id": "spi-seven-component-demark-lag1-gspc",
          "interpretation": "Seven-component DeMark diffusion with causal lag 1 on ^GSPC long history.",
          "span": {
            "end": "2026-07-24",
            "n_bars": 24757,
            "start": "1927-12-30"
          }
        },
        {
          "category": "simplest_reasonable",
          "id": "spi-seven-component-demark-lag1-gspc",
          "interpretation": "Documented buy-hint rule: diffusion crosses below 4 with >=5 components active."
        },
        {
          "category": "best_recent",
          "events": 625,
          "id": "spi-six-component-original-lag1-gspc",
          "interpretation": "Highest event count variant; descriptive only."
        }
      ],
      "Data": {
        "execution": "lag_bars>=1 primary; lag 0 control labeled non-causal",
        "prior_sha256": "sha256:c41fb90db6a299667062ed511ed8dacb12c603db6be4640cf26ec01d20dbbd34",
        "redistribution": "Publish derived exploratory research only; no native series redistribution.",
        "source_sha256": "sha256:76f47bf6362c355a9ca647cd01296befaf696a50770a5069b00154236892be0f"
      },
      "Limitations": [
        "No native Selling Pressure component or diffusion series in checked-in snapshot.",
        "Six component rolling windows and prevalence thresholds are labeled inferred proxies.",
        "Breadth manual +1 uses workbook replay markers, not live chart integration.",
        "Exact 5-minute subscriber refresh cadence cannot be reproduced from daily closes."
      ],
      "Portfolio contribution": {},
      "Promotion status": "Not promoted \u2014 Research Library only.",
      "Research questions": [
        "Can disclosed six-/seven-component Selling Pressure diffusion rules be tested with SPY/^GSPC/^VIX proxies when native RA series are absent?"
      ],
      "Rules actually disclosed": [
        "Seven-component Selling Pressure diffusion with >=5 active components and buy hints when diffusion drops below 4.",
        "DeMark BUY-setup seventh component with count thresholds >4 and >7; six original components referenced to prior article."
      ],
      "Source": {
        "fetched_at": "2026-08-22T23:44:51Z",
        "native_span": "No native component/diffusion series in snapshot",
        "prior_sha256": "sha256:c41fb90db6a299667062ed511ed8dacb12c603db6be4640cf26ec01d20dbbd34",
        "prior_url": "https://recessionalert.com/measuring-selling-pressure-for-market-entry-timing/",
        "published_at": "2014-08-01",
        "sha256": "sha256:76f47bf6362c355a9ca647cd01296befaf696a50770a5069b00154236892be0f",
        "title": "Improved SP500 Selling Pressure Index | RecessionAlert",
        "url": "https://recessionalert.com/improved-sp-500-selling-pressure-index-subscribers-only/"
      },
      "Suggested next research": [
        "Obtain native Selling Pressure component and diffusion history for parity validation.",
        "Resolve undisclosed rolling windows and optimal trigger levels from subscriber charts.",
        "Test 5-minute refresh semantics versus daily close proxies.",
        "Validate DeMark count integration against authorized RA heads-up display exports."
      ],
      "Summary": [
        "The Improved SP-500 Selling Pressure page adds a seventh DeMark BUY-setup component, retains >=5 component buy hints when diffusion drops below 4, and documents manual breadth +1 via Great Trough/Zweig.",
        "The prior six-component article discloses pct correction >4%, relative strength, rate of change, down-day prevalence, double down-day prevalence, large down-day prevalence, plus sell warnings on diffusion 0->1 and 1->2.",
        "15 labeled public-proxy variants executed on ^GSPC/SPY/IEF/^VIX; all are exploratory inferred reconstructions without native series parity.",
        "Best tested causal Sharpe: spi-six-component-original-lag1-gspc (0.8057627446565867).",
        "Disposition is exploratory_tested_proxy with no playable Other/Indicators promotion."
      ],
      "Trial ledger": [
        {
          "number": 1,
          "status": "published",
          "variants": 15
        }
      ],
      "Validation protocol": {},
      "What had to be inferred": [
        "15 labeled public-proxy variants on ^GSPC/SPY/IEF/^VIX without native Selling Pressure series."
      ],
      "What the source claims": [
        "Seven-component Selling Pressure diffusion with >=5 active components and buy hints when diffusion drops below 4.",
        "DeMark BUY-setup seventh component with count thresholds >4 and >7; six original components referenced to prior article.",
        "15 labeled public-proxy variants on ^GSPC/SPY/IEF/^VIX without native Selling Pressure series."
      ],
      "What to try interactively": [
        {
          "name": "lag_bars",
          "values": [
            0,
            1,
            2
          ]
        }
      ]
    },
    "title": "Improved SP500 Selling Pressure Index | RecessionAlert \u2014 exploratory proxy campaign"
  },
  "campaign": {
    "campaign_id": "recessionalert-improved-sp500-selling-pressure-1429",
    "iteration_number": 1,
    "research_tags": [
      "data_limited",
      "fidelity_mismatch",
      "needs_more_research",
      "parameter_sensitive",
      "useful_as_portfolio_overlay",
      "predictive_not_tradable",
      "interesting_negative_result"
    ],
    "status": "published",
    "title": "Improved SP500 Selling Pressure Index | RecessionAlert \u2014 exploratory proxy campaign"
  },
  "candidate_frontier": [
    {
      "cagr": 0.14039421632491988,
      "category": "best_sharpe",
      "id": "spi-six-component-original-lag1-gspc",
      "interpretation": "Best tested Sharpe among causal lag>=1 variants; exploratory proxy only.",
      "sharpe": 0.8057627446565867
    },
    {
      "category": "best_long_history",
      "id": "spi-seven-component-demark-lag1-gspc",
      "interpretation": "Seven-component DeMark diffusion with causal lag 1 on ^GSPC long history.",
      "span": {
        "end": "2026-07-24",
        "n_bars": 24757,
        "start": "1927-12-30"
      }
    },
    {
      "category": "simplest_reasonable",
      "id": "spi-seven-component-demark-lag1-gspc",
      "interpretation": "Documented buy-hint rule: diffusion crosses below 4 with >=5 components active."
    },
    {
      "category": "best_recent",
      "events": 625,
      "id": "spi-six-component-original-lag1-gspc",
      "interpretation": "Highest event count variant; descriptive only."
    }
  ],
  "candidate_variants": [
    {
      "claim_kind": "inferred_nearby_variant",
      "classification": "exploratory inferred public proxy; not native Selling Pressure series",
      "driver": "^GSPC",
      "family": "six-component-original",
      "id": "spi-six-component-original-lag1-gspc",
      "label": "spi six component original lag1 gspc",
      "metrics": {
        "benchmark_cagr": 0.11140190415690854,
        "benchmark_total_return": 11.590070391694116,
        "cagr": 0.14039421632491988,
        "cagr_delta_vs_buy_hold": 0.028992312168011347,
        "event_rate": 0.10357971494862446,
        "events": 625,
        "n_bars": 6034,
        "sharpe": 0.8057627446565867,
        "total_return": 22.34676375244997,
        "vol": 0.18444314157707326
      },
      "params": {
        "lag_bars": 1,
        "sell_level": null
      },
      "source_fidelity": false,
      "span": {
        "end": "2026-07-24",
        "n_bars": 24757,
        "start": "1927-12-30"
      }
    },
    {
      "claim_kind": "inferred_nearby_variant",
      "classification": "exploratory inferred public proxy; not native Selling Pressure series",
      "driver": "^GSPC",
      "family": "six-component-original",
      "id": "spi-six-component-original-lag2-gspc",
      "label": "spi six component original lag2 gspc",
      "metrics": {
        "benchmark_cagr": 0.11140190415690854,
        "benchmark_total_return": 11.590070391694116,
        "cagr": 0.11328963431481753,
        "cagr_delta_vs_buy_hold": 0.0018877301579089956,
        "event_rate": 0.10357971494862446,
        "events": 625,
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        "sharpe": 0.6729063587341485,
        "total_return": 12.11302010104222,
        "vol": 0.1852748554921099
      },
      "params": {
        "lag_bars": 2,
        "sell_level": null
      },
      "source_fidelity": false,
      "span": {
        "end": "2026-07-24",
        "n_bars": 24757,
        "start": "1927-12-30"
      }
    },
    {
      "claim_kind": "control_only",
      "classification": "exploratory inferred public proxy; not native Selling Pressure series",
      "driver": "^GSPC",
      "family": "six-component-original",
      "id": "spi-six-component-original-lag0-control",
      "label": "spi six component original lag0 control",
      "metrics": {
        "benchmark_cagr": 0.11140190415690854,
        "benchmark_total_return": 11.590070391694116,
        "cagr": 0.0168410804374155,
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        "vol": 0.18399135249781617
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      "params": {
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      "span": {
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        "n_bars": 24757,
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      }
    },
    {
      "claim_kind": "inferred_best_guess",
      "classification": "exploratory inferred public proxy; not native Selling Pressure series",
      "driver": "^GSPC",
      "family": "seven-component-demark",
      "id": "spi-seven-component-demark-lag1-gspc",
      "label": "spi seven component demark lag1 gspc",
      "metrics": {
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      "source_fidelity": false,
      "span": {
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      }
    },
    {
      "claim_kind": "inferred_nearby_variant",
      "classification": "exploratory inferred public proxy; not native Selling Pressure series",
      "driver": "^GSPC",
      "family": "seven-component-demark",
      "id": "spi-seven-component-demark-lag2-gspc",
      "label": "spi seven component demark lag2 gspc",
      "metrics": {
        "benchmark_cagr": 0.11140190415690854,
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        "cagr": 0.11013684945730251,
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      "span": {
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        "n_bars": 24757,
        "start": "1927-12-30"
      }
    },
    {
      "claim_kind": "control_only",
      "classification": "exploratory inferred public proxy; not native Selling Pressure series",
      "driver": "^GSPC",
      "family": "seven-component-demark",
      "id": "spi-seven-component-demark-lag0-control",
      "label": "spi seven component demark lag0 control",
      "metrics": {
        "benchmark_cagr": 0.11140190415690854,
        "benchmark_total_return": 11.590070391694116,
        "cagr": 0.09312903735077493,
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        "sharpe": 0.5700565992655418,
        "total_return": 7.460055341900963,
        "vol": 0.18723050996963983
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      "params": {
        "lag_bars": 0,
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      "source_fidelity": false,
      "span": {
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      }
    },
    {
      "claim_kind": "inferred_nearby_variant",
      "classification": "exploratory inferred public proxy; not native Selling Pressure series",
      "driver": "^GSPC",
      "family": "breadth-adjusted-manual",
      "id": "spi-breadth-adjusted-manual-lag1-gspc",
      "label": "spi breadth adjusted manual lag1 gspc",
      "metrics": {
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      "span": {
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      }
    },
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      "claim_kind": "inferred_nearby_variant",
      "classification": "exploratory inferred public proxy; not native Selling Pressure series",
      "driver": "^GSPC",
      "family": "breadth-adjusted-manual",
      "id": "spi-breadth-adjusted-manual-lag2-gspc",
      "label": "spi breadth adjusted manual lag2 gspc",
      "metrics": {
        "benchmark_cagr": 0.11140190415690854,
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    },
    {
      "claim_kind": "control_only",
      "classification": "exploratory inferred public proxy; not native Selling Pressure series",
      "driver": "^GSPC",
      "family": "breadth-adjusted-manual",
      "id": "spi-breadth-adjusted-manual-lag0-control",
      "label": "spi breadth adjusted manual lag0 control",
      "metrics": {
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      }
    },
    {
      "claim_kind": "documented_sell_warning",
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      "driver": "^GSPC",
      "family": "sell-warning-overlay",
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      "label": "spi sell warning1 lag1 gspc",
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      }
    },
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      "claim_kind": "documented_sell_warning",
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      "family": "sell-warning-overlay",
      "id": "spi-sell-warning2-lag1-gspc",
      "label": "spi sell warning2 lag1 gspc",
      "metrics": {
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    },
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      "claim_kind": "documented_sell_warning",
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      "label": "spi sell warning1 lag2 gspc",
      "metrics": {
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        "benchmark_total_return": 11.590070391694116,
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      }
    },
    {
      "claim_kind": "documented_sell_warning",
      "classification": "exploratory inferred public proxy; not native Selling Pressure series",
      "driver": "^GSPC",
      "family": "sell-warning-overlay",
      "id": "spi-sell-warning2-lag2-gspc",
      "label": "spi sell warning2 lag2 gspc",
      "metrics": {
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        "cagr": 0.10993841812895822,
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        "sell_level": 2
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      "span": {
        "end": "2026-07-24",
        "n_bars": 24757,
        "start": "1927-12-30"
      }
    },
    {
      "claim_kind": "inferred_portfolio_overlay",
      "classification": "exploratory inferred public proxy; not native Selling Pressure series",
      "driver": "^GSPC",
      "family": "spy-ief-buy-overlay",
      "id": "spi-buy-overlay-lag1-spy-ief",
      "label": "spi buy overlay lag1 spy ief",
      "metrics": {
        "benchmark_cagr": 0.11140190415690854,
        "benchmark_total_return": 11.590070391694116,
        "cagr": 0.11497717403087337,
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        "sharpe": 0.6745886824899926,
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        "vol": 0.18775074531233596
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      "params": {
        "lag_bars": 1,
        "sell_level": null
      },
      "source_fidelity": false,
      "span": {
        "end": "2026-07-24",
        "n_bars": 24757,
        "start": "1927-12-30"
      }
    },
    {
      "claim_kind": "inferred_portfolio_overlay",
      "classification": "exploratory inferred public proxy; not native Selling Pressure series",
      "driver": "^GSPC",
      "family": "spy-ief-buy-overlay",
      "id": "spi-buy-overlay-lag2-spy-ief",
      "label": "spi buy overlay lag2 spy ief",
      "metrics": {
        "benchmark_cagr": 0.11140190415690854,
        "benchmark_total_return": 11.590070391694116,
        "cagr": 0.11013684945730251,
        "cagr_delta_vs_buy_hold": -0.0012650546996060275,
        "event_rate": 0.01723566456745111,
        "events": 104,
        "n_bars": 6034,
        "sharpe": 0.6511912467734625,
        "total_return": 11.250866569705858,
        "vol": 0.18782507527226722
      },
      "params": {
        "lag_bars": 2,
        "sell_level": null
      },
      "source_fidelity": false,
      "span": {
        "end": "2026-07-24",
        "n_bars": 24757,
        "start": "1927-12-30"
      }
    }
  ],
  "event_tables": [],
  "evidence": {},
  "execution_assumptions": {},
  "interactive_specs": [
    {
      "name": "lag_bars",
      "values": [
        0,
        1,
        2
      ]
    }
  ],
  "limitations": [
    "No native Selling Pressure component or diffusion series in checked-in snapshot.",
    "Six component rolling windows and prevalence thresholds are labeled inferred proxies.",
    "Breadth manual +1 uses workbook replay markers, not live chart integration.",
    "Exact 5-minute subscriber refresh cadence cannot be reproduced from daily closes."
  ],
  "parameter_grids": [],
  "provenance": {
    "execution": "lag_bars>=1 primary; lag 0 control labeled non-causal",
    "prior_sha256": "sha256:c41fb90db6a299667062ed511ed8dacb12c603db6be4640cf26ec01d20dbbd34",
    "redistribution": "Publish derived exploratory research only; no native series redistribution.",
    "source_sha256": "sha256:76f47bf6362c355a9ca647cd01296befaf696a50770a5069b00154236892be0f"
  },
  "regime_tables": [],
  "schema_version": "research-publication/v1",
  "series": {
    "availability": "unavailable",
    "dates": [],
    "reason": "No reproducible underlying price and signal-input series are published for this expression."
  },
  "signals": {
    "spec": null,
    "specs": []
  },
  "trial_ledger": []
}