{
  "article": {
    "official_admission": false,
    "required_headings": [
      "Summary",
      "Source",
      "What the source claims",
      "Rules actually disclosed",
      "What had to be inferred",
      "Research questions",
      "Data",
      "Baseline implementation",
      "What the signal looks like",
      "Historical events",
      "State-space exploration",
      "Parameter sensitivity",
      "What worked",
      "What did not work",
      "Why the failures appear to happen",
      "Regime behavior",
      "Timing and cost sensitivity",
      "Combinations",
      "Candidate frontier",
      "Agent assessment",
      "Limitations",
      "What to try interactively",
      "Suggested next research",
      "Promotion status",
      "Trial ledger",
      "Validation protocol",
      "Portfolio contribution"
    ],
    "research_tags": [
      "data_limited",
      "fidelity_mismatch",
      "parameter_sensitive",
      "predictive_not_tradable",
      "interesting_negative_result",
      "needs_more_research"
    ],
    "sections": {
      "Baseline implementation": {
        "available_signal_observations": 938,
        "claim_kind": "inferred",
        "classification": "inferred lookahead diagnostic",
        "execution": "one available monthly bar lag is causal baseline; lag 0 is research-only",
        "exploratory": true,
        "family": "unrate_regime",
        "id": "recessionalert.1345.unrate_regime.lb3.lag0.t0p0",
        "input_names": [
          "UNRATE"
        ],
        "lag_bars": 0,
        "lookback": 3,
        "metrics_spy_bil": {
          "annualized_return": 0.10223803996031511,
          "benchmark_total_return": 5.775363419995794,
          "end": "2026-06-30",
          "max_drawdown": -0.2420584677802402,
          "observations": 228,
          "risk_off_fraction": 0.29385964912280704,
          "sharpe": 0.8894778625274528,
          "start": "2007-06-30",
          "total_return": 5.356711589315653,
          "volatility": 0.11758829494387918
        },
        "metrics_spy_ief": {
          "annualized_return": 0.10231288563106111,
          "benchmark_total_return": 11.39742578500792,
          "end": "2026-06-30",
          "max_drawdown": -0.2542612240937828,
          "observations": 286,
          "risk_off_fraction": 0.2727272727272727,
          "sharpe": 0.8822748507509688,
          "start": "2002-08-31",
          "total_return": 9.192164075887439,
          "volatility": 0.1188110240974314
        },
        "missingness": "warm-up and unavailable states excluded, never converted to risk-on",
        "publication_lag_months": "unknown_native; one available month causal baseline",
        "risk_off_events": 89,
        "risk_off_fraction": 0.3336886993603412,
        "same_close_status": "research_only_sensitivity",
        "signal_span": "1948-04-30/2026-06-30",
        "source_identity": "UNRATE aggregate fallback; not native Google Trends/RecessionAlert",
        "spec_id": "recessionalert.1345.unrate_regime.lb3.lag0.t0p0",
        "threshold": 0.0,
        "unavailable_signal_observations": 3
      },
      "Candidate frontier": [
        {
          "category": "best_long_history",
          "claim_kind": "inferred",
          "disposition": "exploratory comparison only; not promoted",
          "exploratory": true,
          "metrics": {
            "annualized_return": 0.08726948480189711,
            "benchmark_total_return": 11.39742578500792,
            "end": "2026-06-30",
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            "risk_off_fraction": 0.2902097902097902,
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          "variant_id": "recessionalert.1345.unrate_regime.lb6.lag1.t0p0"
        },
        {
          "category": "simplest_reasonable",
          "claim_kind": "inferred",
          "disposition": "exploratory comparison only; not promoted",
          "exploratory": true,
          "metrics": {
            "annualized_return": 0.07920074261902688,
            "benchmark_total_return": 5.775363419995794,
            "end": "2026-06-30",
            "max_drawdown": -0.23927178828328333,
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            "risk_off_fraction": 0.31140350877192985,
            "sharpe": 0.6896882710580116,
            "start": "2007-06-30",
            "total_return": 3.2554204341966066,
            "volatility": 0.12155160802425947
          },
          "variant_id": "recessionalert.1345.unrate_regime.lb6.lag1.t0p0"
        }
      ],
      "Data": {
        "canonical_source": "sha256:2cb8464ee21e8b28af0f8dcbf7bacbd3ddeffc040c53717a198c0b701fa019dd",
        "canonical_source_paths": [
          "research/findings/recessionalert_inventory.md",
          "research/artifacts/recessionalert/manifest.json",
          "data/recessionalert.sqlite"
        ],
        "database_policy": "All reads use SQLite mode=ro; no crawl or market cache mutation.",
        "primary_common_window": "2007-06 through 2026-06 after monthly alignment",
        "proxy_inputs": [
          "FRED UNRATE snapshot in data/market.sqlite",
          "Yahoo SPY/IEF/BIL snapshots in data/market.sqlite"
        ],
        "redistribution": "Derived proxy metrics and summaries only; no raw page/media, credentials, cookies, or private account data."
      },
      "Limitations": [
        "No source-linked Google Trends observations, query configuration, native span, publication clock, vintage, or threshold are available.",
        "UNRATE is an aggregate public proxy and cannot establish RecessionAlert source fidelity.",
        "FRED revisions and Yahoo historical adjustments lack point-in-time vintages in the tracked cache.",
        "SPY drawdown is related to the benchmark and is circular as an independent fear measure.",
        "IEF and BIL are descriptive sleeves; source buy/sell, sizing, rebalance, exit, and re-entry rules are undisclosed.",
        "The article-to-archive interval and two-week NBER phrase are not publication lags."
      ],
      "Parameter sensitivity": [
        "Timing changes the IEF total to 8.4878 (lag 0), 6.3458 (lag 1), and 9.7664 (lag 2), all below SPY; threshold and lookback neighbors are negative or weaker."
      ],
      "Portfolio contribution": {},
      "Promotion status": [
        "Exploratory Other / Research publication only. No official RecessionAlert indicator is registered and no inferred proxy setting is presented as a disclosed rule."
      ],
      "Research questions": [
        "What can be learned from the SHA-verified RecessionAlert Google-search fear-gauge narrative using transparent public proxies when its series, thresholds, publication lag, and market rule are incomplete?"
      ],
      "Rules actually disclosed": [
        "The article describes Google global search volume for recession as a fear gauge and gives only contextual 2008 NBER and August 2011 observations.",
        "No buy/sell/hold side, threshold, query configuration, native observations, recurring publication lag, target, sizing, or exit rule is disclosed."
      ],
      "Source": {
        "article_date": "2012-03-06",
        "database": "data/recessionalert.sqlite opened read-only",
        "fetched_at": "2026-08-22T23:39:13Z",
        "inventory": "research/findings/recessionalert_inventory.md",
        "manifest": "research/artifacts/recessionalert/manifest.json",
        "native_span": "undisclosed; one dated article snapshot and no source-linked Fear observations",
        "publication_lag": "unknown; the article's two-week NBER phrase is not a recurring release lag",
        "redacted_url": "https://recessionalert.com/a-recession-fear-indicator/",
        "sha256": "sha256:2cb8464ee21e8b28af0f8dcbf7bacbd3ddeffc040c53717a198c0b701fa019dd"
      },
      "State-space exploration": [
        "Six inferred variants were executed on the tracked cache and all remain in state-space.json with signal counts, risk-off fractions, events, and IEF/BIL versus SPY totals.",
        "The causal lb6/threshold0/lag1 baseline returned 6.3458 in the IEF sleeve versus 11.3974 for SPY and 3.2554 in BIL versus 5.7754 for SPY.",
        "The lag-0 lb3 diagnostic returned the highest IEF total among tested variants but is lookahead and not deployable."
      ],
      "Suggested next research": [
        "Can an authorized redistributable source-linked Google Trends series and query configuration be obtained?",
        "What exact threshold, smoothing, state, and market mapping did the source use?",
        "What recurring publication timestamps, vintages, revisions, and point-in-time cutoffs apply?",
        "Can the reported 2008 and 2011 narratives be recomputed from source observations?"
      ],
      "Summary": [
        "The source describes a Google recession-search fear gauge but provides no machine-readable observations, exact query, native span, or executable market rule.",
        "UNRATE is the longest available public recession-relevant proxy in the tracked cache; SPY/IEF/BIL provide transparent descriptive sleeves, not source fidelity.",
        "All six inferred variants ran successfully; their metrics and weak or negative outcomes remain in the state-space ledger.",
        "A one-available-month lag is the causal baseline, with lag 0 retained only as a research-only timing sensitivity."
      ],
      "Timing and cost sensitivity": [
        "Native Google Trends publication and vintage timing are unknown. Lag 1 is the conservative causal baseline; lag 0 is shown only as a research-only sensitivity. Transaction costs are not disclosed by the source and are not fabricated."
      ],
      "Trial ledger": [
        {
          "iteration": 1,
          "status": "published",
          "summary": "Offline public-proxy campaign; native source-fidelity gaps remain."
        }
      ],
      "Validation protocol": {},
      "What did not work": [
        "No tested proxy variant beat aligned SPY in either defensive sleeve comparison, and aggregate UNRATE cannot validate the native Google-search identity."
      ],
      "What had to be inferred": [
        "FRED UNRATE monthly rate-of-change was selected as the longest public recession-relevant proxy; SPY/IEF/BIL are descriptive sleeves.",
        "Lookbacks 3/6/12/21, thresholds -0.5/0/0.5/1, and lag 0/1/2 were exploratory choices, not source settings."
      ],
      "What the signal looks like": [
        "The interactive lab plots the inferred UNRATE signal and normalized SPY market path; lag 1 is the causal baseline and lag 0 is research-only."
      ],
      "What the source claims": [
        "The article describes global Google search volume for recession as a promising recession indicator and fear gauge, with contextual 2008 NBER and August 2011 observations but no downloadable series.",
        "The article says the 2008 NBER start was within a two-week lag of the search peak; this is event context, not an executable release lag.",
        "Monthly FRED UNRATE rate-of-change is used as a long-history recession-risk proxy with explicitly inferred lookbacks, thresholds, and lags.",
        "SPY risk-on versus IEF/BIL defensive sleeves are descriptive comparison overlays; the source discloses no allocation or target."
      ],
      "What to try interactively": [
        {
          "default": "recessionalert.1345.unrate_regime.lb6.lag1.t0p0",
          "description": "Choose an inferred proxy variant; no setting is disclosed by RecessionAlert.",
          "name": "variant",
          "values": [
            "recessionalert.1345.unrate_regime.lb3.lag0.t0p0",
            "recessionalert.1345.unrate_regime.lb6.lag1.t0p0",
            "recessionalert.1345.unrate_regime.lb12.lag2.t0p5",
            "recessionalert.1345.unrate_regime.lb6.lag1.t0p5",
            "recessionalert.1345.unrate_regime.lb12.lag1.t1p0",
            "recessionalert.1345.unrate_regime.lb21.lag1.tm0p5"
          ]
        },
        {
          "default": 1,
          "description": "Lag 1 is causal baseline; lag 0 is research-only sensitivity.",
          "name": "execution_lag",
          "values": [
            0,
            1,
            2
          ]
        },
        {
          "default": "IEF",
          "description": "Descriptive inferred sleeve; source target is undisclosed.",
          "name": "defensive_sleeve",
          "values": [
            "IEF",
            "BIL"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "What worked": [
        "The proxy campaign is reproducible offline, has a long UNRATE history, preserves unavailable warm-up values, and exposes a readable interactive signal/equity lab."
      ]
    },
    "title": "A Recession Fear Indicator | RecessionAlert \u2014 exploratory proxy campaign"
  },
  "campaign": {
    "campaign_id": "recessionalert-fear-indicator",
    "iteration_number": 1,
    "research_tags": [
      "data_limited",
      "fidelity_mismatch",
      "parameter_sensitive",
      "predictive_not_tradable",
      "interesting_negative_result",
      "needs_more_research"
    ],
    "status": "published",
    "title": "A Recession Fear Indicator | RecessionAlert \u2014 exploratory proxy campaign"
  },
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      "same_close_status": "not_used",
      "signal_span": "1949-01-31/2026-06-30",
      "source_identity": "UNRATE aggregate fallback; not native Google Trends/RecessionAlert",
      "spec_id": "recessionalert.1345.unrate_regime.lb12.lag1.t1p0",
      "threshold": 1.0,
      "unavailable_signal_observations": 12
    },
    {
      "available_signal_observations": 920,
      "claim_kind": "inferred",
      "classification": "inferred negative long-lookback variant",
      "execution": "one available monthly bar lag is causal baseline; lag 0 is research-only",
      "exploratory": true,
      "family": "unrate_regime",
      "id": "recessionalert.1345.unrate_regime.lb21.lag1.tm0p5",
      "input_names": [
        "UNRATE"
      ],
      "lag_bars": 1,
      "lookback": 21,
      "metrics_spy_bil": {
        "annualized_return": 0.05463588592459101,
        "benchmark_total_return": 5.775363419995794,
        "end": "2026-06-30",
        "max_drawdown": -0.38809262976694914,
        "observations": 228,
        "risk_off_fraction": 0.39035087719298245,
        "sharpe": 0.5415486333207293,
        "start": "2007-06-30",
        "total_return": 1.7475673909545022,
        "volatility": 0.10954556510390455
      },
      "metrics_spy_ief": {
        "annualized_return": 0.06915131227328475,
        "benchmark_total_return": 11.39742578500792,
        "end": "2026-06-30",
        "max_drawdown": -0.41023092316366905,
        "observations": 286,
        "risk_off_fraction": 0.3776223776223776,
        "sharpe": 0.6609508380014584,
        "start": "2002-08-31",
        "total_return": 3.92153182714026,
        "volatility": 0.11073455419527127
      },
      "missingness": "warm-up and unavailable states excluded, never converted to risk-on",
      "publication_lag_months": "unknown_native; one available month causal baseline",
      "risk_off_events": 25,
      "risk_off_fraction": 0.38804347826086955,
      "same_close_status": "not_used",
      "signal_span": "1949-10-31/2026-06-30",
      "source_identity": "UNRATE aggregate fallback; not native Google Trends/RecessionAlert",
      "spec_id": "recessionalert.1345.unrate_regime.lb21.lag1.tm0p5",
      "threshold": -0.5,
      "unavailable_signal_observations": 21
    }
  ],
  "event_tables": [],
  "evidence": {},
  "execution_assumptions": {},
  "interactive_specs": [
    {
      "default": "recessionalert.1345.unrate_regime.lb6.lag1.t0p0",
      "description": "Choose an inferred proxy variant; no setting is disclosed by RecessionAlert.",
      "name": "variant",
      "values": [
        "recessionalert.1345.unrate_regime.lb3.lag0.t0p0",
        "recessionalert.1345.unrate_regime.lb6.lag1.t0p0",
        "recessionalert.1345.unrate_regime.lb12.lag2.t0p5",
        "recessionalert.1345.unrate_regime.lb6.lag1.t0p5",
        "recessionalert.1345.unrate_regime.lb12.lag1.t1p0",
        "recessionalert.1345.unrate_regime.lb21.lag1.tm0p5"
      ]
    },
    {
      "default": 1,
      "description": "Lag 1 is causal baseline; lag 0 is research-only sensitivity.",
      "name": "execution_lag",
      "values": [
        0,
        1,
        2
      ]
    },
    {
      "default": "IEF",
      "description": "Descriptive inferred sleeve; source target is undisclosed.",
      "name": "defensive_sleeve",
      "values": [
        "IEF",
        "BIL"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "limitations": [
    "No source-linked Google Trends observations, query configuration, native span, publication clock, vintage, or threshold are available.",
    "UNRATE is an aggregate public proxy and cannot establish RecessionAlert source fidelity.",
    "FRED revisions and Yahoo historical adjustments lack point-in-time vintages in the tracked cache.",
    "SPY drawdown is related to the benchmark and is circular as an independent fear measure.",
    "IEF and BIL are descriptive sleeves; source buy/sell, sizing, rebalance, exit, and re-entry rules are undisclosed.",
    "The article-to-archive interval and two-week NBER phrase are not publication lags."
  ],
  "parameter_grids": [],
  "provenance": {
    "canonical_source": "sha256:2cb8464ee21e8b28af0f8dcbf7bacbd3ddeffc040c53717a198c0b701fa019dd",
    "canonical_source_paths": [
      "research/findings/recessionalert_inventory.md",
      "research/artifacts/recessionalert/manifest.json",
      "data/recessionalert.sqlite"
    ],
    "database_policy": "All reads use SQLite mode=ro; no crawl or market cache mutation.",
    "primary_common_window": "2007-06 through 2026-06 after monthly alignment",
    "proxy_inputs": [
      "FRED UNRATE snapshot in data/market.sqlite",
      "Yahoo SPY/IEF/BIL snapshots in data/market.sqlite"
    ],
    "redistribution": "Derived proxy metrics and summaries only; no raw page/media, credentials, cookies, or private account data."
  },
  "regime_tables": [],
  "schema_version": "research-publication/v1",
  "series": {
    "availability": "unavailable",
    "dates": [],
    "reason": "No reproducible underlying price and signal-input series are published for this expression."
  },
  "signals": {
    "spec": null,
    "specs": []
  },
  "trial_ledger": []
}