{
  "article": {
    "official_admission": false,
    "required_headings": [
      "Summary",
      "Source",
      "What the source claims",
      "Rules actually disclosed",
      "What had to be inferred",
      "Research questions",
      "Data",
      "Baseline implementation",
      "What the signal looks like",
      "Historical events",
      "State-space exploration",
      "Parameter sensitivity",
      "What worked",
      "What did not work",
      "Why the failures appear to happen",
      "Regime behavior",
      "Timing and cost sensitivity",
      "Combinations",
      "Candidate frontier",
      "Agent assessment",
      "Limitations",
      "What to try interactively",
      "Suggested next research",
      "Promotion status",
      "Trial ledger",
      "Validation protocol",
      "Portfolio contribution"
    ],
    "research_tags": [
      "fidelity_mismatch",
      "data_limited",
      "parameter_sensitive",
      "interesting_negative_result",
      "needs_more_research",
      "useful_as_filter"
    ],
    "sections": {
      "Baseline implementation": {
        "claim_kind": "documented_anchor_inferred_rule",
        "classification": "exploratory inferred public proxy; not native CMHI",
        "family": "horizontal_level_proxy",
        "id": "doc-2019-state-control",
        "lag_bars": 1,
        "lookback_months": 12,
        "metrics": {
          "annualized_volatility": 0.0757663971,
          "cagr": 0.0594576964,
          "max_drawdown": -0.2245236249,
          "sharpe_zero_rf": 0.7847502154,
          "total_return": 2.9995109129
        },
        "source_fidelity": false,
        "threshold": 0.3
      },
      "Candidate frontier": [
        {
          "category": "simplest_reasonable",
          "id": "expanding-lb60-resid0-p2-lag1-ief",
          "interpretation": "Predeclared causal best guess; defensive but return-dragging versus same-span risk-on."
        },
        {
          "category": "best_return",
          "id": "rolling36-resid0-p1-lag1-ief",
          "interpretation": "Highest causal live CAGR among tested variants; still lags risk-on."
        },
        {
          "category": "lowest_drawdown",
          "id": "horizontal-pos01-p1-lag1-bil",
          "interpretation": "Strongest measured drawdown reduction with substantial return drag."
        },
        {
          "category": "best_source_fidelity",
          "id": "horizontal-pos03-p2-lag1-ief",
          "interpretation": "Uses documented +0.3 anchor on an inferred proxy scale; not native parity."
        },
        {
          "category": "best_long_history",
          "id": "expanding-lb60-resid0-p2-lag1-ief",
          "interpretation": "Longest modeled defensive overlay on relaxed_long panel for length sensitivity only."
        }
      ],
      "Data": {
        "database": "data/market.sqlite",
        "database_access": "read-only query_only",
        "native_span": "Claimed 1968/2014; no native numeric series in canonical snapshot.",
        "private_data": false,
        "proxy_chain": [
          "SPY",
          "^VIX",
          "synthetic breadth",
          "INDPRO",
          "UNRATE",
          "IEF",
          "BIL"
        ],
        "publication_lag": "Daily cadence only; timezone/cutoff/revision policy unknown.",
        "source_fetched_at": "2026-08-22T23:46:27Z",
        "source_sha256": "sha256:3d0121b55586960ae5624ac588023ecce2416503226c0d5f0ed94d73a7073427",
        "source_url": "https://recessionalert.com/de-trended-cmhi/"
      },
      "Limitations": [
        "Exploratory inferred/proxy only; not investment advice; not promoted to Other/Indicators."
      ],
      "Portfolio contribution": {},
      "Promotion status": "Not promoted; publish under Other/Research only.",
      "Research questions": [
        "Can transparent public proxies test the documented CMHI de-trending and pivot concepts without claiming native RecessionAlert parity?"
      ],
      "Rules actually disclosed": [
        "CMHI ranges from -1 to +1 and is updated daily; constituent formulas and numeric history are undisclosed.",
        "De-trend around long-term regression mean/trend; monitor pivots near zero and post-1983 horizontal +0.3 reference."
      ],
      "Source": {
        "fetched_at": "2026-08-22T23:46:27Z",
        "sha256": "sha256:3d0121b55586960ae5624ac588023ecce2416503226c0d5f0ed94d73a7073427",
        "url": "https://recessionalert.com/de-trended-cmhi/"
      },
      "Suggested next research": [
        "Acquire authorized native CMHI observations and publication clock under a separate task.",
        "Recover exact regression estimator, pivot direction/equality, and portfolio mapping if disclosed elsewhere.",
        "Test less binary allocation overlays only as future follow-up research."
      ],
      "Summary": [
        "The archived article documents a daily CMHI bounded from -1 to +1, qualitative regression de-trending, and +0.3/zero pivot concepts without a complete BUY/SELL rule or native observations.",
        "Thirty-three labeled public-proxy trials executed across live_market, live_full, and relaxed_long panels; thirty causal and three lag-zero controls."
      ],
      "Trial ledger": [
        {
          "decision": "insufficient_evidence",
          "iteration": 1,
          "status": "published",
          "summary": "Exploratory proxy campaign published; official CMHI indicator promotion rejected."
        }
      ],
      "Validation protocol": {},
      "What had to be inferred": [
        "Five proxy families with expanding/rolling/horizontal de-trending, zero and +0.3 thresholds, diffusion bridge, and SPY/IEF/BIL overlays.",
        "Month-end observations, one-month macro availability where applicable, and one trading-month lag by default; lag-zero is control-only."
      ],
      "What the source claims": [
        "CMHI ranges from -1 to +1 and is updated daily; constituent formulas and numeric history are undisclosed.",
        "De-trend around long-term regression mean/trend; monitor pivots near zero and post-1983 horizontal +0.3 reference.",
        "Five proxy families with expanding/rolling/horizontal de-trending, zero and +0.3 thresholds, diffusion bridge, and SPY/IEF/BIL overlays.",
        "Month-end observations, one-month macro availability where applicable, and one trading-month lag by default; lag-zero is control-only."
      ],
      "What to try interactively": [
        {
          "name": "fit_months",
          "values": [
            36,
            60,
            120
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "threshold",
          "values": [
            -0.1,
            0.0,
            0.1,
            0.3
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "lag_bars",
          "values": [
            0,
            1,
            2
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "persistence_months",
          "values": [
            1,
            2,
            3
          ]
        }
      ]
    },
    "title": "The improved, de-trended Composite Market Health Index (CMHI) | RecessionAlert \u2014 exploratory proxy campaign"
  },
  "campaign": {
    "campaign_id": "recessionalert-detrended-cmhi-1375",
    "iteration_number": 1,
    "research_tags": [
      "fidelity_mismatch",
      "data_limited",
      "parameter_sensitive",
      "interesting_negative_result",
      "needs_more_research",
      "useful_as_filter"
    ],
    "status": "published",
    "title": "The improved, de-trended Composite Market Health Index (CMHI) | RecessionAlert \u2014 exploratory proxy campaign"
  },
  "candidate_frontier": [
    {
      "category": "simplest_reasonable",
      "id": "expanding-lb60-resid0-p2-lag1-ief",
      "interpretation": "Predeclared causal best guess; defensive but return-dragging versus same-span risk-on."
    },
    {
      "category": "best_return",
      "id": "rolling36-resid0-p1-lag1-ief",
      "interpretation": "Highest causal live CAGR among tested variants; still lags risk-on."
    },
    {
      "category": "lowest_drawdown",
      "id": "horizontal-pos01-p1-lag1-bil",
      "interpretation": "Strongest measured drawdown reduction with substantial return drag."
    },
    {
      "category": "best_source_fidelity",
      "id": "horizontal-pos03-p2-lag1-ief",
      "interpretation": "Uses documented +0.3 anchor on an inferred proxy scale; not native parity."
    },
    {
      "category": "best_long_history",
      "id": "expanding-lb60-resid0-p2-lag1-ief",
      "interpretation": "Longest modeled defensive overlay on relaxed_long panel for length sensitivity only."
    }
  ],
  "candidate_variants": [
    {
      "claim_kind": "documented_anchor_inferred_rule",
      "classification": "exploratory inferred public proxy; not native CMHI",
      "family": "horizontal_level_proxy",
      "id": "doc-2019-state-control",
      "lag_bars": 1,
      "lookback_months": 12,
      "metrics": {
        "annualized_volatility": 0.0757663971,
        "cagr": 0.0594576964,
        "max_drawdown": -0.2245236249,
        "sharpe_zero_rf": 0.7847502154,
        "total_return": 2.9995109129
      },
      "source_fidelity": false,
      "threshold": 0.3
    },
    {
      "claim_kind": "inferred_best_guess",
      "classification": "exploratory inferred public proxy; not native CMHI",
      "family": "expanding_linear_detrend",
      "id": "expanding-lb60-resid0-p2-lag1-ief",
      "lag_bars": 1,
      "lookback_months": 12,
      "metrics": {
        "annualized_volatility": 0.0799094331,
        "cagr": 0.0652499304,
        "max_drawdown": -0.2315164523,
        "sharpe_zero_rf": 0.8165485336,
        "total_return": 3.1681822784
      },
      "source_fidelity": false,
      "threshold": 0.0
    },
    {
      "claim_kind": "inferred_nearby_variant",
      "classification": "exploratory inferred public proxy; not native CMHI",
      "family": "expanding_linear_detrend",
      "id": "expanding-lb36-resid-neg01-p1-lag1-bil",
      "lag_bars": 1,
      "lookback_months": 6,
      "metrics": {
        "annualized_volatility": 0.0901042271,
        "cagr": 0.0768164667,
        "max_drawdown": -0.2218732458,
        "sharpe_zero_rf": 0.8525290011,
        "total_return": 3.1309412979
      },
      "source_fidelity": false,
      "threshold": -0.1
    },
    {
      "claim_kind": "inferred_nearby_variant",
      "classification": "exploratory inferred public proxy; not native CMHI",
      "family": "expanding_linear_detrend",
      "id": "expanding-lb120-resid-pos01-p3-lag2-ief",
      "lag_bars": 2,
      "lookback_months": 21,
      "metrics": {
        "annualized_volatility": 0.07771302,
        "cagr": 0.0355548858,
        "max_drawdown": -0.1937578632,
        "sharpe_zero_rf": 0.4575151732,
        "total_return": 0.5075932487
      },
      "source_fidelity": false,
      "threshold": 0.1
    },
    {
      "claim_kind": "inferred_family_variant",
      "classification": "exploratory inferred public proxy; not native CMHI",
      "family": "rolling_linear_detrend",
      "id": "rolling36-resid0-p1-lag1-ief",
      "lag_bars": 1,
      "lookback_months": 6,
      "metrics": {
        "annualized_volatility": 0.1042409273,
        "cagr": 0.0901363432,
        "max_drawdown": -0.2505426534,
        "sharpe_zero_rf": 0.8646924536,
        "total_return": 6.9348668488
      },
      "source_fidelity": false,
      "threshold": 0.0
    },
    {
      "claim_kind": "inferred_family_variant",
      "classification": "exploratory inferred public proxy; not native CMHI",
      "family": "rolling_linear_detrend",
      "id": "rolling60-resid-neg01-p2-lag2-bil",
      "lag_bars": 2,
      "lookback_months": 12,
      "metrics": {
        "annualized_volatility": 0.1040907561,
        "cagr": 0.0513216359,
        "max_drawdown": -0.3199168816,
        "sharpe_zero_rf": 0.4930470082,
        "total_return": 1.6097508112
      },
      "source_fidelity": false,
      "threshold": -0.1
    },
    {
      "claim_kind": "documented_anchor_inferred_rule",
      "classification": "exploratory inferred public proxy; not native CMHI",
      "family": "horizontal_level_proxy",
      "id": "horizontal-pos03-p2-lag1-ief",
      "lag_bars": 1,
      "lookback_months": 12,
      "metrics": {
        "annualized_volatility": 0.0720047891,
        "cagr": 0.0454664373,
        "max_drawdown": -0.2274723606,
        "sharpe_zero_rf": 0.6314362951,
        "total_return": 1.9069816095
      },
      "source_fidelity": false,
      "threshold": 0.3
    },
    {
      "claim_kind": "inferred_nearby_variant",
      "classification": "exploratory inferred public proxy; not native CMHI",
      "family": "horizontal_level_proxy",
      "id": "horizontal-pos01-p1-lag1-bil",
      "lag_bars": 1,
      "lookback_months": 12,
      "metrics": {
        "annualized_volatility": 0.0753555308,
        "cagr": 0.0550202999,
        "max_drawdown": -0.1188729719,
        "sharpe_zero_rf": 0.7301428225,
        "total_return": 1.7914657813
      },
      "source_fidelity": false,
      "threshold": 0.1
    },
    {
      "claim_kind": "documented_anchor_inferred_rule",
      "classification": "exploratory inferred public proxy; not native CMHI",
      "family": "zero_pivot_overlay",
      "id": "zero-raw-p1-lag1-ief",
      "lag_bars": 1,
      "lookback_months": 12,
      "metrics": {
        "annualized_volatility": 0.0962156349,
        "cagr": 0.08037442,
        "max_drawdown": -0.2823771918,
        "sharpe_zero_rf": 0.8353571644,
        "total_return": 5.3941530645
      },
      "source_fidelity": false,
      "threshold": 0.0
    },
    {
      "claim_kind": "speculative_bridge",
      "classification": "exploratory inferred public proxy; not native CMHI",
      "family": "cmhi_diffusion_bridge",
      "id": "diffusion7-expanding60-resid0-p2-lag1-ief",
      "lag_bars": 1,
      "lookback_months": 12,
      "metrics": {
        "annualized_volatility": 0.0772303519,
        "cagr": 0.0538810125,
        "max_drawdown": -0.2315164523,
        "sharpe_zero_rf": 0.697666282,
        "total_return": 2.2712207187
      },
      "source_fidelity": false,
      "threshold": 0.0
    },
    {
      "claim_kind": "control_only",
      "classification": "exploratory inferred public proxy; not native CMHI",
      "family": "expanding_linear_detrend",
      "id": "expanding-lb60-resid0-p2-lag0-control",
      "lag_bars": 0,
      "lookback_months": 12,
      "metrics": {
        "annualized_volatility": 0.077588735,
        "cagr": 0.1112481619,
        "max_drawdown": -0.1810813718,
        "sharpe_zero_rf": 1.4338184783,
        "total_return": 9.9240562503
      },
      "source_fidelity": false,
      "threshold": 0.0
    }
  ],
  "event_tables": [],
  "evidence": {},
  "execution_assumptions": {},
  "interactive_specs": [
    {
      "name": "fit_months",
      "values": [
        36,
        60,
        120
      ]
    },
    {
      "name": "threshold",
      "values": [
        -0.1,
        0.0,
        0.1,
        0.3
      ]
    },
    {
      "name": "lag_bars",
      "values": [
        0,
        1,
        2
      ]
    },
    {
      "name": "persistence_months",
      "values": [
        1,
        2,
        3
      ]
    }
  ],
  "limitations": [
    "Source has no machine-readable CMHI series, constituents, or complete BUY/SELL rule.",
    "Proxy de-trending, thresholds, persistence, and SPY/IEF/BIL mapping are inferred.",
    "Relaxed_long panel uses modeled/simulated extensions for length sensitivity only.",
    "Lag-zero variants are non-causal controls and excluded from primary evidence.",
    "Results are exploratory Other/Research evidence, not official indicator admission."
  ],
  "parameter_grids": [],
  "provenance": {
    "database": "data/market.sqlite",
    "database_access": "read-only query_only",
    "native_span": "Claimed 1968/2014; no native numeric series in canonical snapshot.",
    "private_data": false,
    "proxy_chain": [
      "SPY",
      "^VIX",
      "synthetic breadth",
      "INDPRO",
      "UNRATE",
      "IEF",
      "BIL"
    ],
    "publication_lag": "Daily cadence only; timezone/cutoff/revision policy unknown.",
    "source_fetched_at": "2026-08-22T23:46:27Z",
    "source_sha256": "sha256:3d0121b55586960ae5624ac588023ecce2416503226c0d5f0ed94d73a7073427",
    "source_url": "https://recessionalert.com/de-trended-cmhi/"
  },
  "regime_tables": [],
  "schema_version": "research-publication/v1",
  "series": {
    "availability": "unavailable",
    "dates": [],
    "reason": "No reproducible underlying price and signal-input series are published for this expression."
  },
  "signals": {
    "spec": null,
    "specs": []
  },
  "trial_ledger": []
}