{
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      "Summary",
      "Source",
      "What the source claims",
      "Rules actually disclosed",
      "What had to be inferred",
      "Research questions",
      "Data",
      "Baseline implementation",
      "What the signal looks like",
      "Historical events",
      "State-space exploration",
      "Parameter sensitivity",
      "What worked",
      "What did not work",
      "Why the failures appear to happen",
      "Regime behavior",
      "Timing and cost sensitivity",
      "Combinations",
      "Candidate frontier",
      "Agent assessment",
      "Limitations",
      "What to try interactively",
      "Suggested next research",
      "Promotion status",
      "Trial ledger",
      "Validation protocol",
      "Portfolio contribution"
    ],
    "research_tags": [
      "needs_more_research",
      "fidelity_mismatch",
      "data_limited"
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      "Baseline implementation": {
        "claim_kind": "workbook_replayed",
        "classification": "exploratory inferred/public-proxy; not native BUY-THE-DIP parity",
        "family": "documented-zbt-workbook-replay",
        "id": "zbt_classic_lag1",
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          "reason": "Workbook-replayed ZBT marker with causal lag 1.",
          "variant_id": "zbt_classic_lag1"
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          "category": "best_long_history",
          "reason": "1993+ month-end SIGS vote proxy with documented -12 extreme semantics.",
          "variant_id": "sigs_proxy_a_minus12_lag1_lb12"
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          "reason": "Extra lag on native GTR workbook replay.",
          "variant_id": "gtr_either_lag2"
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      "Data": {
        "execution": "lag_bars>=1 primary; lag 0 control labeled non-causal",
        "redistribution": "Publish derived exploratory research only; no native series redistribution.",
        "source_sha256": "sha256:30fff0fd433e25ecaf2c490a1f8dfb40e166a6719d7344e3e2000f023948b57a",
        "workbook_sha256": "sha256:fc2be5f1fc2a2e38949ae566f6e8cb4699a95562975a498fb5a53510cc40d67c"
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      "Limitations": [
        "Survey page has zero linked assets and no native SIGS/Trendex observation table.",
        "NYSE UVOL/DVOL breadth is absent; ZBT breadth proxy uses IWM/SPY participation.",
        "GTR workbook replay retains proprietary smoothing; drawdown/^VIX proxy is inferred only.",
        "SIGS twelve component model states are undisclosed; diffusion is a labeled reconstruction.",
        "Trendex stop geometry is undisclosed; stop-count proxy adapts channel-rank holds.",
        "Publication lag documented only as 15-minute ZBT/GTR chart refresh.",
        "Sell/exit rules and portfolio map are not disclosed on the survey page."
      ],
      "Portfolio contribution": {},
      "Promotion status": "Not promoted \u2014 Research Library only.",
      "Research questions": [
        "What can be learned from the four-family BUY-THE-DIP survey using workbook replays and labeled public proxies when native SIGS/Trendex series are absent?"
      ],
      "Rules actually disclosed": [
        "ZBT and GTR buy-the-dip families with 15-minute chart refresh.",
        "SIGS A/B pivot rules without component states.",
        "Trendex rise-from-0 diffusion with 85% probability hint."
      ],
      "Source": {
        "database": "data/recessionalert.sqlite opened read-only",
        "fetched_at": "2026-08-22T23:47:50Z",
        "inventory": "research/findings/recessionalert_inventory.md",
        "manifest": "research/artifacts/recessionalert/manifest.json",
        "native_span": "none_on_page; workbook ZBT 2003+, GTR 2015+",
        "publication_lag": "15-minute ZBT/GTR chart refresh stated; research default lag>=1",
        "published_at": "2021-03-12",
        "redacted_url": "https://recessionalert.com/detecting-sp500-buy-the-dip-signals/",
        "sha256": "sha256:30fff0fd433e25ecaf2c490a1f8dfb40e166a6719d7344e3e2000f023948b57a"
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      "Suggested next research": [
        "State-space exploration across all 34 preregistered variants.",
        "Regime slices and entry-event forward returns.",
        "Authorized native SIGS/Trendex observations if ever released."
      ],
      "Summary": [],
      "Trial ledger": [
        {
          "number": 1,
          "status": "implementation",
          "variants": 34
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      "Validation protocol": {},
      "What had to be inferred": [
        "Public SPY/IWM/^VIX/BAA10Y proxies for absent native series.",
        "Four-family consensus and market-bottom filter overlays."
      ],
      "What the source claims": [
        "ZBT and GTR buy-the-dip families with 15-minute chart refresh.",
        "SIGS A/B pivot rules without component states.",
        "Trendex rise-from-0 diffusion with 85% probability hint.",
        "Public SPY/IWM/^VIX/BAA10Y proxies for absent native series.",
        "Four-family consensus and market-bottom filter overlays."
      ],
      "What to try interactively": []
    },
    "title": "Detecting SP500 BUY-THE-DIP signals | RecessionAlert \u2014 exploratory campaign"
  },
  "campaign": {
    "campaign_id": "recessionalert-buy-the-dip-1380",
    "iteration_number": 1,
    "research_tags": [
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    "status": "exploring",
    "title": "Detecting SP500 BUY-THE-DIP signals | RecessionAlert \u2014 exploratory campaign"
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      "classification": "exploratory inferred/public-proxy; not native BUY-THE-DIP parity",
      "family": "speculative-market-bottom-filter",
      "id": "bottom_filter_confirm_lag2",
      "lag_bars": 2,
      "lookback_months": 12,
      "metrics": {
        "cagr": 0.02690301670508566,
        "exposure": 0.14463840399002495,
        "n_months": 401,
        "positive_events": 58
      },
      "source_fidelity": false,
      "threshold": 0.0
    },
    {
      "claim_kind": "speculative_extension",
      "classification": "exploratory inferred/public-proxy; not native BUY-THE-DIP parity",
      "family": "speculative-market-bottom-filter",
      "id": "bottom_filter_veto_lag1",
      "lag_bars": 1,
      "lookback_months": 12,
      "metrics": {
        "cagr": 0.008669610132198802,
        "exposure": 0.1782477341389728,
        "n_months": 331,
        "positive_events": 59
      },
      "source_fidelity": false,
      "threshold": 0.0
    }
  ],
  "event_tables": [],
  "evidence": {},
  "execution_assumptions": {},
  "interactive_specs": [],
  "limitations": [
    "Survey page has zero linked assets and no native SIGS/Trendex observation table.",
    "NYSE UVOL/DVOL breadth is absent; ZBT breadth proxy uses IWM/SPY participation.",
    "GTR workbook replay retains proprietary smoothing; drawdown/^VIX proxy is inferred only.",
    "SIGS twelve component model states are undisclosed; diffusion is a labeled reconstruction.",
    "Trendex stop geometry is undisclosed; stop-count proxy adapts channel-rank holds.",
    "Publication lag documented only as 15-minute ZBT/GTR chart refresh.",
    "Sell/exit rules and portfolio map are not disclosed on the survey page."
  ],
  "parameter_grids": [],
  "provenance": {
    "execution": "lag_bars>=1 primary; lag 0 control labeled non-causal",
    "redistribution": "Publish derived exploratory research only; no native series redistribution.",
    "source_sha256": "sha256:30fff0fd433e25ecaf2c490a1f8dfb40e166a6719d7344e3e2000f023948b57a",
    "workbook_sha256": "sha256:fc2be5f1fc2a2e38949ae566f6e8cb4699a95562975a498fb5a53510cc40d67c"
  },
  "regime_tables": [],
  "schema_version": "research-publication/v1",
  "series": {
    "availability": "unavailable",
    "dates": [],
    "reason": "No reproducible underlying price and signal-input series are published for this expression."
  },
  "signals": {
    "spec": null,
    "specs": []
  },
  "trial_ledger": []
}