{
  "article": {
    "official_admission": false,
    "required_headings": [
      "Summary",
      "Source",
      "What the source claims",
      "Rules actually disclosed",
      "What had to be inferred",
      "Research questions",
      "Data",
      "Baseline implementation",
      "What the signal looks like",
      "Historical events",
      "State-space exploration",
      "Parameter sensitivity",
      "What worked",
      "What did not work",
      "Why the failures appear to happen",
      "Regime behavior",
      "Timing and cost sensitivity",
      "Combinations",
      "Candidate frontier",
      "Agent assessment",
      "Limitations",
      "What to try interactively",
      "Suggested next research",
      "Promotion status",
      "Trial ledger",
      "Validation protocol",
      "Portfolio contribution"
    ],
    "research_tags": [
      "useful_as_entry",
      "useful_as_exit",
      "data_limited",
      "fidelity_mismatch",
      "needs_more_research",
      "structurally_interesting"
    ],
    "sections": {
      "Baseline implementation": {
        "created_by": "source_baseline",
        "family_id": "official",
        "metrics": {
          "label": "ground_truth"
        },
        "parameters": {
          "round_trips": 55
        },
        "reason_tested": "published MB Edge legs as alignment ground truth",
        "status": "exploratory",
        "tags": [
          "useful_as_filter",
          "fidelity_mismatch"
        ],
        "variant_id": "miltonberg.mb-edge-official"
      },
      "Candidate frontier": [
        {
          "category": "best_source_fidelity",
          "exploratory": true,
          "variant_id": "miltonberg.mb-edge-official"
        },
        {
          "category": "simplest_reasonable",
          "exploratory": true,
          "variant_id": "miltonberg.drawdown-exit-8pct"
        }
      ],
      "Data": {
        "event_fixture": "research/miltonberg/events_fixture.json",
        "inputs": [
          "TVC:SPX",
          "TVC:IXIC",
          "TVC:VIX",
          "USI:UVOL",
          "USI:DVOL",
          "CBOE put/call",
          "AAII"
        ],
        "native_berg_feeds": false
      },
      "Limitations": [
        "These are reconstructions from public articles, transcripts, and stated dates \u2014 not the live MB Edge product.",
        "Thresholds Berg published are used verbatim; unmarked tails are reconstructed and labeled as such in signal descriptions.",
        "NYSE ADVN/DECN, CFTC, and NAAIM remain unavailable; those signals are missing_data or historical_only.",
        "The 20-day active window on Other Indicators is a visualization convention except for the disclosed 8% drawdown exit.",
        "Event dates are pinned from the 2026-08-24 miltonberg export; live re-fetch of TradingView/FRED series is out of scope for this import."
      ],
      "Portfolio contribution": {},
      "Promotion status": "Not promoted \u2014 Research Library only.",
      "Research questions": [
        "Which publicly disclosed Milton Berg buy, sell, and warning templates can be reconstructed as independent Other-indicators with verbatim provenance, without claiming the proprietary MB Edge model?"
      ],
      "Rules actually disclosed": [
        "MB Edge is a binary 100% S&P 500 or 100% T-bills model: act on the first buy signal and exit on an 8% closing drawdown. The published history has 55 round trips since 1957 (110 official legs).",
        "Equal-weight 6-day/18-day ROC ratio >= 105% is a disclosed buy: 17 stated occurrences, low never broken, median +32.5% max 12-month gain.",
        "V-bottoms: new 60-day low then >=+4% within 5 days without retest \u2014 cited 2009-03-09, 2018-12-24, 2020-03-23, 2025-04-08.",
        "April 4 2025 cluster: VIX +10% for two days, NASDAQ 3-day ROC <= -7%, and related panic marks arriving together.",
        "Named sentiment inputs (AAII, put/call, NAAIM, CFTC) have no published numeric tails; 95th-percentile reconstructions are marked as reconstructed thresholds."
      ],
      "Source": {
        "kind": "public reconstruction",
        "links": [
          "research/miltonberg/",
          "research/findings/milton-berg-signals.md"
        ],
        "prior_experiments": [
          "berg-turning-points"
        ],
        "title": "Milton Berg Signals \u2014 Reconstruction, Spec & Provenance"
      },
      "Suggested next research": [
        "Re-evaluate the computable subset against quantmodel market.sqlite when overlapping series exist.",
        "Keep missing_data rows fail-closed until free A/D, CFTC, or NAAIM panels exist."
      ],
      "Summary": [
        "Imported 53 reconstructed signals in 8 classes from the miltonberg workspace into Other \u2192 Indicators. Each card is an independent overlay, not an AllocateSmartly replica and not a claim that we replicate proprietary MB Edge internals.",
        "Official class: mb_edge_official (110 BUY/SELL legs) and mb_edge_first_buy (55 BUY legs) are the published binary history used as alignment ground truth.",
        "Volatility (6): VIX/VXN +10%\u00d72d, VXN +35%/3d, VXN short/long ratio SELL (2025-12-11 cited), 5d-vs-30d optimism warnings.",
        "ROC (7): NASDAQ \u22127%/3d, 6d/18d ROC \u2265105%, weakest-5d-in-180 and 5y, S&P \u221210% 3d/5d washouts, NASDAQ +10%/10d thrust.",
        "Volume (10): 10-to-1\u00d73d, 12:1/7d, 15:1 day, net up-vol \u221245%, 375d volume regime, NDX 200d volume extreme, 70:1 day, high-vol-after-advance.",
        "Breadth (7): A/D divergence (1987 historical), DJU record-volume peak, 60d new low, 95%>10d thrust (historical_only without constituents), NASDAQ A/D 8-of-10 down.",
        "Price pattern (10): \u221212%+3% rebound, drawdown exits 4/7/8%, RUT island reversal, V-bottoms, consecutive-gain streak, deep-decline 18/25/40% into 60d lows.",
        "Sentiment (6): AAII and put/call trailing-2y tails (reconstructed 95th percentile); CFTC and NAAIM placeholders remain missing_data.",
        "Regime (5): Montgomery calendar windows, M2 vs IP/PPI drain, TRIN reflecting boundaries, 1987 structural/portfolio-insurance and Fed-hike complacency (mostly historical).",
        "Alignment vs official legs (\u00b15 calendar days) is stored per signal in the fixture. Highest published alignments in the source catalog include vbottom_no_retest and drawdown_exit_8pct; many volume/sentiment tails are frequent and therefore low-alignment by construction.",
        "Prior berg-turning-points campaign used public-proxy families and was a negative/data-limited result. This import is the later reconstruction with verbatim quotes, stated dates, and computed events \u2014 complementary, not a silent replacement."
      ],
      "Trial ledger": [
        {
          "iteration_number": 1,
          "objective": "Import reconstructed signals into Other indicators and document provenance on a Research Library page."
        }
      ],
      "Validation protocol": {},
      "What had to be inferred": [
        "Signals are event-dated, no lookahead, cluster-deduped. Viewer holding windows of 20 sessions are a site overlay, not a Berg exit except the 8% drawdown rule."
      ],
      "What the source claims": [
        "MB Edge is a binary 100% S&P 500 or 100% T-bills model: act on the first buy signal and exit on an 8% closing drawdown. The published history has 55 round trips since 1957 (110 official legs).",
        "Equal-weight 6-day/18-day ROC ratio >= 105% is a disclosed buy: 17 stated occurrences, low never broken, median +32.5% max 12-month gain.",
        "V-bottoms: new 60-day low then >=+4% within 5 days without retest \u2014 cited 2009-03-09, 2018-12-24, 2020-03-23, 2025-04-08.",
        "April 4 2025 cluster: VIX +10% for two days, NASDAQ 3-day ROC <= -7%, and related panic marks arriving together.",
        "Named sentiment inputs (AAII, put/call, NAAIM, CFTC) have no published numeric tails; 95th-percentile reconstructions are marked as reconstructed thresholds.",
        "Signals are event-dated, no lookahead, cluster-deduped. Viewer holding windows of 20 sessions are a site overlay, not a Berg exit except the 8% drawdown rule.",
        "NYSE issue A/D counts, CFTC noncommercial extremes, and NAAIM exposure are not freely ingestible here; those rows stay missing_data or historical_only."
      ],
      "What to try interactively": [
        {
          "default": 20,
          "name": "holding_window",
          "options": [
            5,
            10,
            20,
            40
          ],
          "type": "integer"
        }
      ]
    },
    "title": "Milton Berg reconstructed buy/sell signals"
  },
  "campaign": {
    "campaign_id": "milton-berg-signals",
    "iteration_number": 1,
    "research_tags": [
      "useful_as_entry",
      "useful_as_exit",
      "data_limited",
      "fidelity_mismatch",
      "needs_more_research",
      "structurally_interesting"
    ],
    "status": "published",
    "title": "Milton Berg reconstructed buy/sell signals"
  },
  "candidate_frontier": [
    {
      "category": "best_source_fidelity",
      "exploratory": true,
      "variant_id": "miltonberg.mb-edge-official"
    },
    {
      "category": "simplest_reasonable",
      "exploratory": true,
      "variant_id": "miltonberg.drawdown-exit-8pct"
    }
  ],
  "candidate_variants": [
    {
      "created_by": "source_baseline",
      "family_id": "official",
      "metrics": {
        "label": "ground_truth"
      },
      "parameters": {
        "round_trips": 55
      },
      "reason_tested": "published MB Edge legs as alignment ground truth",
      "status": "exploratory",
      "tags": [
        "useful_as_filter",
        "fidelity_mismatch"
      ],
      "variant_id": "miltonberg.mb-edge-official"
    },
    {
      "created_by": "source_baseline",
      "family_id": "price_pattern",
      "metrics": {
        "label": "disclosed_exit"
      },
      "parameters": {
        "drawdown": 0.08
      },
      "reason_tested": "disclosed MB Edge sell rule",
      "status": "exploratory",
      "tags": [
        "useful_as_exit"
      ],
      "variant_id": "miltonberg.drawdown-exit-8pct"
    },
    {
      "created_by": "source_baseline",
      "family_id": "roc",
      "metrics": {
        "label": "disclosed_buy"
      },
      "parameters": {
        "fast": 6,
        "ratio": 1.05,
        "slow": 18
      },
      "reason_tested": "disclosed 17-occurrence ROC ratio buy",
      "status": "exploratory",
      "tags": [
        "useful_as_entry",
        "promising"
      ],
      "variant_id": "miltonberg.ew-roc6-18-ratio105"
    },
    {
      "created_by": "source_baseline",
      "family_id": "price_pattern",
      "metrics": {
        "label": "cited_vbottom"
      },
      "parameters": {
        "low_lookback": 60,
        "rebound": 0.04,
        "window": 5
      },
      "reason_tested": "four cited V-bottoms",
      "status": "exploratory",
      "tags": [
        "useful_as_entry",
        "structurally_interesting"
      ],
      "variant_id": "miltonberg.vbottom-no-retest"
    }
  ],
  "event_tables": [],
  "evidence": {},
  "execution_assumptions": {},
  "interactive_specs": [
    {
      "default": 20,
      "name": "holding_window",
      "options": [
        5,
        10,
        20,
        40
      ],
      "type": "integer"
    }
  ],
  "limitations": [
    "These are reconstructions from public articles, transcripts, and stated dates \u2014 not the live MB Edge product.",
    "Thresholds Berg published are used verbatim; unmarked tails are reconstructed and labeled as such in signal descriptions.",
    "NYSE ADVN/DECN, CFTC, and NAAIM remain unavailable; those signals are missing_data or historical_only.",
    "The 20-day active window on Other Indicators is a visualization convention except for the disclosed 8% drawdown exit.",
    "Event dates are pinned from the 2026-08-24 miltonberg export; live re-fetch of TradingView/FRED series is out of scope for this import."
  ],
  "parameter_grids": [],
  "provenance": {
    "event_fixture": "research/miltonberg/events_fixture.json",
    "inputs": [
      "TVC:SPX",
      "TVC:IXIC",
      "TVC:VIX",
      "USI:UVOL",
      "USI:DVOL",
      "CBOE put/call",
      "AAII"
    ],
    "native_berg_feeds": false
  },
  "regime_tables": [],
  "schema_version": "research-publication/v1",
  "series": {
    "availability": "unavailable",
    "dates": [],
    "reason": "No reproducible underlying price and signal-input series are published for this expression."
  },
  "signals": {
    "spec": null,
    "specs": []
  },
  "trial_ledger": []
}