{
  "article": {
    "official_admission": false,
    "required_headings": [
      "Summary",
      "Source",
      "What the source claims",
      "Rules actually disclosed",
      "What had to be inferred",
      "Research questions",
      "Data",
      "Baseline implementation",
      "What the signal looks like",
      "Historical events",
      "State-space exploration",
      "Parameter sensitivity",
      "What worked",
      "What did not work",
      "Why the failures appear to happen",
      "Regime behavior",
      "Timing and cost sensitivity",
      "Combinations",
      "Candidate frontier",
      "Agent assessment",
      "Limitations",
      "What to try interactively",
      "Suggested next research",
      "Promotion status",
      "Trial ledger",
      "Validation protocol",
      "Portfolio contribution"
    ],
    "research_tags": [
      "regime_dependent",
      "needs_more_research",
      "data_limited"
    ],
    "sections": {
      "Baseline implementation": {
        "created_by": "source_baseline",
        "family_id": "fed-bal-roc",
        "metrics": {
          "label": "exploratory"
        },
        "parameters": {
          "holding_period": 20,
          "threshold": 4.8
        },
        "reason_tested": "documented ROC gate",
        "status": "exploratory",
        "tags": [
          "regime_dependent",
          "needs_more_research"
        ],
        "variant_id": "fed-bal-roc.roc5.threshold4.8.hold20"
      },
      "Candidate frontier": [
        {
          "category": "best_source_fidelity",
          "exploratory": true,
          "variant_id": "fed-bal-roc.roc5.threshold4.8.hold20"
        }
      ],
      "Data": {
        "inputs": [
          "WSHOSHO",
          "SPY"
        ]
      },
      "Limitations": [
        "Weekly publication lag; ffill is an interpretation."
      ],
      "Portfolio contribution": {},
      "Promotion status": "Not promoted \u2014 Research Library only.",
      "Research questions": [
        "Does WSHOSHO ROC5>4.8 add recovery beyond generic defensive exits?"
      ],
      "Rules actually disclosed": [
        "Buy when 5-period ROC of Fed balance sheet (WSHOSHO) exceeds 4.8%."
      ],
      "Source": {
        "kind": "macro",
        "prior_experiments": [
          "qm-4bx.19",
          "qm-kdnj.5"
        ]
      },
      "Suggested next research": [
        "Test WALCL alternative; extra lag."
      ],
      "Summary": [
        "Investigate-only in prior work; keep as Research Library, not official."
      ],
      "Trial ledger": [
        {
          "iteration_number": 1,
          "objective": "initial source exploration"
        }
      ],
      "Validation protocol": {},
      "What had to be inferred": [
        "Weekly series ffilled to daily; 20-day hold."
      ],
      "What the source claims": [
        "Buy when 5-period ROC of Fed balance sheet (WSHOSHO) exceeds 4.8%.",
        "Weekly series ffilled to daily; 20-day hold."
      ],
      "What to try interactively": [
        {
          "default": 4.8,
          "name": "threshold",
          "type": "float"
        }
      ]
    },
    "title": "Fed Balance-Sheet ROC \u2014 exploratory campaign"
  },
  "campaign": {
    "campaign_id": "fed-bal-roc",
    "iteration_number": 1,
    "research_tags": [
      "regime_dependent",
      "needs_more_research",
      "data_limited"
    ],
    "status": "awaiting_research_feedback",
    "title": "Fed Balance-Sheet ROC \u2014 exploratory campaign"
  },
  "candidate_frontier": [
    {
      "category": "best_source_fidelity",
      "exploratory": true,
      "variant_id": "fed-bal-roc.roc5.threshold4.8.hold20"
    }
  ],
  "candidate_variants": [
    {
      "created_by": "source_baseline",
      "family_id": "fed-bal-roc",
      "metrics": {
        "label": "exploratory"
      },
      "parameters": {
        "holding_period": 20,
        "threshold": 4.8
      },
      "reason_tested": "documented ROC gate",
      "status": "exploratory",
      "tags": [
        "regime_dependent",
        "needs_more_research"
      ],
      "variant_id": "fed-bal-roc.roc5.threshold4.8.hold20"
    }
  ],
  "event_tables": [],
  "evidence": {},
  "execution_assumptions": {},
  "interactive_specs": [
    {
      "default": 4.8,
      "name": "threshold",
      "type": "float"
    }
  ],
  "limitations": [
    "Weekly publication lag; ffill is an interpretation."
  ],
  "parameter_grids": [],
  "provenance": {
    "inputs": [
      "WSHOSHO",
      "SPY"
    ]
  },
  "regime_tables": [],
  "schema_version": "research-publication/v1",
  "series": {
    "availability": "unavailable",
    "dates": [],
    "reason": "No reproducible underlying price and signal-input series are published for this expression."
  },
  "signals": {
    "spec": null,
    "specs": []
  },
  "trial_ledger": []
}