{
  "experiment": {
    "alloc": {
      "labels": [
        "2026-01"
      ],
      "series": [
        {
          "name": "SPY",
          "values": [
            0.6
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "CASH",
          "values": [
            0.4
          ]
        }
      ]
    },
    "alloc_as": null,
    "alloc_monthly_as": null,
    "alloc_monthly_ours": {
      "labels": [
        "2026-01"
      ],
      "series": [
        {
          "name": "SPY",
          "values": [
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          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "CASH",
          "values": [
            0.4
          ]
        }
      ]
    },
    "alloc_ours": {
      "labels": [
        "2026-01"
      ],
      "series": [
        {
          "name": "SPY",
          "values": [
            0.6
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "CASH",
          "values": [
            0.4
          ]
        }
      ]
    },
    "alloc_yearly_as": null,
    "alloc_yearly_ours": {
      "labels": [
        "2026"
      ],
      "series": [
        {
          "name": "SPY",
          "values": [
            0.6
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "CASH",
          "values": [
            0.4
          ]
        }
      ]
    },
    "analysis_page": null,
    "answer": "Insufficient evidence: hypothesis, vol definition (annualized vol + MaxDD/downside rationale), distinctness, and frozen protocol complete; kernel extension not yet executed so quantitative evaluation pending via qm-7ad/qm-5ak.",
    "bead_ids": [
      "qm-y8j-5-max-cagr-at-vol"
    ],
    "cost_variants": {},
    "coverage": {
      "alloc_monthly_labels_n": 12,
      "alloc_yearly_labels_n": 0,
      "as_alloc_rows": 0,
      "as_history_start_year": null,
      "as_returns_n": 0,
      "as_yearly_alloc_rows": 0,
      "coverage_generated_at": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z",
      "db_path": "data/market.sqlite",
      "db_warm": true,
      "gap_years": null,
      "limiting": {
        "effective_start": "1993-01-29",
        "id": "SPY",
        "kind": "ohlcv",
        "native_start": "1993-01-29",
        "proxied": false,
        "proxy_chain": [],
        "span_basis": "db"
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      "macros": [],
      "monthly_labels_n": 1,
      "ours_alloc_rows": 1,
      "ours_returns_n": 1,
      "ticker_meta": [
        {
          "end": "2026-07-24",
          "n_rows": 8428,
          "start": "1993-01-29",
          "ticker": "SPY"
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      ],
      "tickers": [
        "SPY"
      ]
    },
    "date": "2026-08-15",
    "disposition": "insufficient_evidence - not promoted; research preserved via experiments route; follow-ups will re-enter decision with walk-forward metrics.",
    "equity": {
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        1.0
      ],
      "labels": [
        "2026-01-01"
      ],
      "spy": [
        1.0
      ],
      "spy_labels": [
        "2026-01-01"
      ]
    },
    "errors": "Kernel not yet implemented; 6-8h walk-forward per variant pending No quantitative G11-G12 metrics yet",
    "follow_on": [
      {
        "status": "open",
        "title": "Implement max-CAGR-at-vol kernel and wrappers"
      },
      {
        "status": "open",
        "title": "Run full robustness and publish catalog pages"
      },
      {
        "status": "open",
        "title": "Evaluate downside-vol and MaxDD constrained CAGR Metas"
      }
    ],
    "followup_command": "gh issue create --title \"Follow-up Max CAGR at Target Vol Metas SPX and 6040 - insufficient_evi\" --body \"Follow-up to qm-y8j-5-max-cagr-at-vol: Can a max-CAGR-at-vol Meta at SPX vol and at 60/40 vol beat its benchmark CAGR a\" --label \"priority:p2\" --label \"pipeline:research\" --label \"agent:ready\"",
    "gh_command": "gh issue create --title \"Follow-up Max CAGR at Target Vol Metas SPX and 6040 - insufficient_evi\" --body \"Follow-up to qm-y8j-5-max-cagr-at-vol: Can a max-CAGR-at-vol Meta at SPX vol and at 60/40 vol beat its benchmark CAGR a\" --label \"priority:p2\" --label \"pipeline:research\" --label \"agent:ready\"",
    "id": "qm-y8j-5-max-cagr-at-vol",
    "issue_ids": [
      "qm-y8j-5-max-cagr-at-vol"
    ],
    "monthly": {
      "as": [
        null
      ],
      "labels": [
        "2026-01"
      ],
      "ours": [
        0.0
      ]
    },
    "page": "experiments/qm-y8j-5-max-cagr-at-vol.html",
    "performance": {
      "cagr": 0.0,
      "max_drawdown": 0.0,
      "max_drawdown_fallback_rule": "Use daily backtest equity when available; otherwise compound published monthly returns and label the result monthly.",
      "max_drawdown_observation_frequency": "monthly",
      "sharpe": 0.0,
      "sortino": 0.0,
      "volatility": null
    },
    "provenance": {
      "artifact": "research/findings/specs/meta-target-cagr-vol-qm-y8j.5.json",
      "code": "research/optimizer3_meta.py",
      "finding": "research/findings/evidence-manifest-qm-y8j.5.json",
      "site_data": "site-data/experiments/qm-y8j-5-max-cagr-at-vol.json",
      "tearsheet": null
    },
    "question": "Can a max-CAGR-at-vol Meta at SPX vol and at 60/40 vol beat its benchmark CAGR at matched vol?",
    "safe_withdrawal": null,
    "signalSeries": {
      "active": [
        false
      ],
      "driver": "Signal driver",
      "entryValue": 0.0,
      "exitValue": 0.0,
      "inputs": [],
      "isDynamic": false,
      "isMulti": false,
      "labels": [
        "2026-01-01"
      ],
      "megaThreshold": null,
      "megaThresholdLabel": null,
      "threshold": 0.0,
      "thresholdKind": "fixed",
      "thresholdLabel": "Entry 0.0",
      "trigger": [
        false
      ],
      "triggers": [],
      "unit": "",
      "values": [
        -0.232
      ],
      "yLabel": "Indicator value"
    },
    "signals": [],
    "slug": "qm-y8j-5-max-cagr-at-vol",
    "stats": {
      "cagr": 0.0,
      "maxDD": 0.0,
      "primary": "CAGR at vol band 0.8-1.2x target",
      "sharpe": 0.0,
      "sortino": 0.0,
      "window": "long_common_1970 pending"
    },
    "status": "insufficient_evidence",
    "status_chip": "Insufficient evidence",
    "supplemental": {
      "bead": "qm-y8j.5",
      "variants": [
        "meta-target-cagr-sp500",
        "meta-target-cagr-6040"
      ]
    },
    "tax_analysis": {
      "ltcg_pct": null,
      "note": "Experiment parity stub: no taxable wrapper; see strategy tax_analysis for methodology",
      "schema_id": "tax-analysis/v1",
      "stcg_pct": null
    },
    "taxable_stats": null,
    "title": "Max CAGR at Target Vol Metas (SPX and 60/40) - insufficient_evidence",
    "trading_costs": {
      "avg_daily_turnover": 0.00766,
      "avg_yearly_fees": 0.00193,
      "basis": "monthly_proxy",
      "cost_bps_one_way": 10.0,
      "fee_bps": 10.0,
      "n_bars": 1,
      "schema_id": "trading-costs/v1",
      "slippage_bps": 0.0,
      "total_costs": 8e-06
    },
    "verify": {
      "as_cagr": null,
      "as_stats": null,
      "cagr_delta": null,
      "gates": null,
      "last_verify_at": null,
      "monthly_bias": null,
      "monthly_corr": null,
      "monthly_mae": null,
      "n_months": null,
      "ours_cagr": 0.0,
      "ours_stats": {
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        "sharpe": 0.0,
        "sortino": 0.0
      },
      "passed": null,
      "status": "not_applicable",
      "verify_status": null
    },
    "visualizations": [
      {
        "data": {
          "labels": [
            "2026-01-01"
          ],
          "note": "Aligned window, both rebased to 1.0 at start for fair comparison"
        },
        "title": "Equity vs S&P (aligned, rebased to 1.0)",
        "type": "equity_vs_spy"
      },
      {
        "data": {
          "note": "Triggers when overlay takes over base strategy"
        },
        "title": "Signal timeline (sparse triggers)",
        "type": "signal_timeline"
      }
    ]
  },
  "generated_at": "2026-09-17T04:12:25Z",
  "id": "qm-y8j-5-max-cagr-at-vol",
  "schema_id": "experiments/v1",
  "schema_version": 1
}
