{ "experiment": { "alloc": { "labels": [ "2025-08", "2025-09", "2025-10", "2025-11", "2025-12", "2026-01", "2026-02", "2026-03", "2026-04", "2026-05", "2026-06", "2026-07" ], "series": [ { "name": "SPY", "values": [ 0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.6 ] }, { "name": "CASH", "values": [ 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4 ] } ] }, "alloc_as": null, "alloc_monthly_as": null, "alloc_monthly_ours": { "labels": [ "2025-08", "2025-09", "2025-10", "2025-11", "2025-12", "2026-01", "2026-02", "2026-03", "2026-04", "2026-05", "2026-06", "2026-07" ], "series": [ { "name": "SPY", "values": [ 0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.6 ] }, { "name": "CASH", "values": [ 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4 ] } ] }, "alloc_ours": { "labels": [ "2025-08", "2025-09", "2025-10", "2025-11", "2025-12", "2026-01", "2026-02", "2026-03", "2026-04", "2026-05", "2026-06", "2026-07" ], "series": [ { "name": "SPY", "values": [ 0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.6 ] }, { "name": "CASH", "values": [ 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4 ] } ] }, "alloc_yearly_as": null, "alloc_yearly_ours": { "labels": [ "2025" ], "series": [ { "name": "SPY", "values": [ 0.6 ] }, { "name": "CASH", "values": [ 0.4 ] } ] }, "analysis_page": "experiments/1361-proxy-analysis.html", "answer": "Five labeled BTC price, Mayer, momentum, and correction proxies were executed over a frozen 5,852-row Coin Metrics PriceUSD history with cached SPY/BIL sleeves. Causal lag-1 and lag-2 variants are retained, lag-zero is a control only, and no candidate establishes native RecessionAlert parity or a complete portfolio rule.", "bead_ids": [ "1361-proxy" ], "cost_variants": {}, "coverage": { "alloc_monthly_labels_n": 12, "alloc_yearly_labels_n": 0, "as_alloc_rows": 0, "as_history_start_year": null, "as_returns_n": 0, "as_yearly_alloc_rows": 0, "coverage_generated_at": "2026-07T00:00:00Z", "db_path": "data/market.sqlite", "db_warm": true, "gap_years": null, "limiting": { "effective_start": "1993-01-29", "id": "SPY", "kind": "ohlcv", "native_start": "1993-01-29", "proxied": false, "proxy_chain": [], "span_basis": "db" }, "macro_meta": [], "macros": [], "monthly_labels_n": 193, "ours_alloc_rows": 193, "ours_returns_n": 193, "ticker_meta": [ { "end": "2026-07-24", "n_rows": 8428, "start": "1993-01-29", "ticker": "SPY" } ], "tickers": [ "SPY" ] }, "date": "2026-09-01", "disposition": "insufficient_evidence for native RecessionAlert promotion; publish 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"2013-02", "2013-03", "2013-04", "2013-05", "2013-06", "2013-07", "2013-08", "2013-09", "2013-10", "2013-11", "2013-12", "2014-01", "2014-02", "2014-03", "2014-04", "2014-05", "2014-06", "2014-07", "2014-08", "2014-09", "2014-10", "2014-11", "2014-12", "2015-01", "2015-02", "2015-03", "2015-04", "2015-05", "2015-06", "2015-07", "2015-08", "2015-09", "2015-10", "2015-11", "2015-12", "2016-01", "2016-02", "2016-03", "2016-04", "2016-05", "2016-06", "2016-07", "2016-08", "2016-09", "2016-10", "2016-11", "2016-12", "2017-01", "2017-02", "2017-03", "2017-04", "2017-05", "2017-06", "2017-07", "2017-08", "2017-09", "2017-10", "2017-11", "2017-12", "2018-01", "2018-02", "2018-03", "2018-04", "2018-05", "2018-06", "2018-07", "2018-08", "2018-09", "2018-10", "2018-11", "2018-12", "2019-01", "2019-02", "2019-03", "2019-04", "2019-05", "2019-06", "2019-07", "2019-08", "2019-09", "2019-10", "2019-11", "2019-12", "2020-01", "2020-02", "2020-03", "2020-04", "2020-05", "2020-06", "2020-07", "2020-08", "2020-09", "2020-10", "2020-11", "2020-12", "2021-01", "2021-02", "2021-03", "2021-04", "2021-05", "2021-06", "2021-07", "2021-08", "2021-09", "2021-10", "2021-11", "2021-12", "2022-01", "2022-02", "2022-03", "2022-04", "2022-05", "2022-06", "2022-07", "2022-08", "2022-09", "2022-10", "2022-11", "2022-12", "2023-01", "2023-02", "2023-03", "2023-04", "2023-05", "2023-06", "2023-07", "2023-08", "2023-09", "2023-10", "2023-11", "2023-12", "2024-01", "2024-02", "2024-03", "2024-04", "2024-05", "2024-06", "2024-07", "2024-08", "2024-09", "2024-10", "2024-11", "2024-12", "2025-01", "2025-02", "2025-03", "2025-04", "2025-05", "2025-06", "2025-07", "2025-08", "2025-09", "2025-10", "2025-11", "2025-12", "2026-01", "2026-02", "2026-03", "2026-04", "2026-05", "2026-06", "2026-07" ] }, "errors": "All five candidates are inferred public proxies, not native RecessionAlert observations. No native source-linked numeric series, workbook mapping, point-in-time release clock, or publication lag is available. SPY/BIL target sleeves are explicit assumptions; provider aggregate prices, weekend missingness, costs, slippage, custody, and taxes are not modeled. The source provides no common state machine, persistence, precedence, exit, re-entry, allocation, or cash rule. The source explicitly warns that its probability model is contextual rather than actionable.", "follow_on": [ { "status": "open", "title": "Authorize native Bitcoin source refresh" }, { "status": "open", "title": "Test independent proxy holdout" } ], "followup_command": "gh issue create --title \"Follow-up RecessionAlert Bitcoin inferred public-proxy campaign\" --body \"Follow-up to 1361-proxy: Can the incomplete RecessionAlert Bitcoin context suite yield transparent, causa\" --label \"priority:p2\" --label \"pipeline:research\" --label \"agent:ready\"", "gh_command": "gh issue create --title \"Follow-up RecessionAlert Bitcoin inferred public-proxy campaign\" --body \"Follow-up to 1361-proxy: Can the incomplete RecessionAlert Bitcoin context suite yield transparent, causa\" --label \"priority:p2\" --label \"pipeline:research\" --label \"agent:ready\"", "id": "1361-proxy", "issue_ids": [ "1361-proxy" ], "monthly": { "as": [ null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, 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