{
  "experiment": {
    "alloc": {
      "labels": [
        "2026-01"
      ],
      "series": [
        {
          "name": "SPY",
          "values": [
            0.6
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "CASH",
          "values": [
            0.4
          ]
        }
      ]
    },
    "alloc_as": null,
    "alloc_monthly_as": null,
    "alloc_monthly_ours": {
      "labels": [
        "2026-01"
      ],
      "series": [
        {
          "name": "SPY",
          "values": [
            0.6
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "CASH",
          "values": [
            0.4
          ]
        }
      ]
    },
    "alloc_ours": {
      "labels": [
        "2026-01"
      ],
      "series": [
        {
          "name": "SPY",
          "values": [
            0.6
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "CASH",
          "values": [
            0.4
          ]
        }
      ]
    },
    "alloc_yearly_as": null,
    "alloc_yearly_ours": {
      "labels": [
        "2026"
      ],
      "series": [
        {
          "name": "SPY",
          "values": [
            0.6
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "CASH",
          "values": [
            0.4
          ]
        }
      ]
    },
    "analysis_page": "experiments/1335-analysis.html",
    "answer": "No playable series. The SHA-verified page is a November 16, 2018 article that describes the second derivative as the percentage of historical WLEI readings above the current reading and frames it as a warning with WLEI Diffusion and ECRI WLI, but it contains no source-linked observations, chart payload, numeric threshold, release lag, signal mapping, or portfolio execution rule. Disposition is insufficient_evidence with a public provenance and gap report only.",
    "bead_ids": [
      "1335"
    ],
    "cost_variants": {},
    "coverage": {
      "alloc_monthly_labels_n": 12,
      "alloc_yearly_labels_n": 0,
      "as_alloc_rows": 0,
      "as_history_start_year": null,
      "as_returns_n": 0,
      "as_yearly_alloc_rows": 0,
      "coverage_generated_at": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z",
      "db_path": "data/market.sqlite",
      "db_warm": true,
      "gap_years": null,
      "limiting": {
        "effective_start": "1993-01-29",
        "id": "SPY",
        "kind": "ohlcv",
        "native_start": "1993-01-29",
        "proxied": false,
        "proxy_chain": [],
        "span_basis": "db"
      },
      "macro_meta": [],
      "macros": [],
      "monthly_labels_n": 1,
      "ours_alloc_rows": 1,
      "ours_returns_n": 1,
      "ticker_meta": [
        {
          "end": "2026-07-24",
          "n_rows": 8428,
          "start": "1993-01-29",
          "ticker": "SPY"
        }
      ],
      "tickers": [
        "SPY"
      ]
    },
    "date": "2026-08-28",
    "disposition": "insufficient_evidence — publish the disclosed conceptual rule, provenance, causal policy, and gap report only; do not register an Other-indicators signal or invent a series.",
    "equity": {
      "experiment": [
        1.0
      ],
      "labels": [
        "2026-01-01"
      ],
      "spy": [
        1.0
      ],
      "spy_labels": [
        "2026-01-01"
      ]
    },
    "errors": "No source-linked machine-readable WLEI or derived second-derivative observations or native span are pinned. The exact historical-rank window, denominator, date/tie treatment, score range, and missing-value behavior are undisclosed. No numeric threshold, divergence tolerance, persistence, confirmation, boolean state, or buy/sell/hold mapping is disclosed. WLEI Diffusion and ECRI WLI observations and source linkage for this row are absent. Weekly release calendar, publication clock, timezone, point-in-time availability, vintage, and revision policy are absent. The three referenced chart PNGs are absent from the canonical asset table; adjacent XLSX assets are unlinked and not merged. No investable universe, target weights, rebalance, exit, re-entry, or holding-period rule is disclosed. No historical recession/market outcome mapping or causal validation window can be run without inventing data and rules. Public outputs exclude cached HTML, chart/workbook bytes, credentials, cookies, and private account data.",
    "follow_on": [
      {
        "status": "deferred",
        "title": "No explicit follow-on; file new issue if needed"
      }
    ],
    "followup_command": "gh issue create --title \"Follow-up RecessionAlert WLEI second derivative warning no executable\" --body \"Follow-up to 1335: Can the distinct RecessionAlert WLEI second-derivative warning row be reproduced\" --label \"priority:p2\" --label \"pipeline:research\" --label \"agent:ready\"",
    "gh_command": "gh issue create --title \"Follow-up RecessionAlert WLEI second derivative warning no executable\" --body \"Follow-up to 1335: Can the distinct RecessionAlert WLEI second-derivative warning row be reproduced\" --label \"priority:p2\" --label \"pipeline:research\" --label \"agent:ready\"",
    "id": "1335",
    "issue_ids": [
      "1335"
    ],
    "monthly": {
      "as": [
        null
      ],
      "labels": [
        "2026-01"
      ],
      "ours": [
        0.0
      ]
    },
    "page": "experiments/1335.html",
    "performance": {
      "cagr": 0.0,
      "max_drawdown": 0.0,
      "max_drawdown_fallback_rule": "Use daily backtest equity when available; otherwise compound published monthly returns and label the result monthly.",
      "max_drawdown_observation_frequency": "monthly",
      "sharpe": 0.0,
      "sortino": 0.0,
      "volatility": null
    },
    "provenance": {
      "artifact": "research/findings/specs/recessionalert-wlei-2nd-derivative.json",
      "code": "tests/test_recessionalert_wlei_2nd_derivative.py",
      "finding": "research/findings/1335.md",
      "site_data": "site-data/experiments/1335.json",
      "tearsheet": null
    },
    "question": "Can the distinct RecessionAlert WLEI second-derivative warning row be reproduced as a playable Other-indicators signal from the checked-in snapshot without inventing undisclosed rules?",
    "safe_withdrawal": null,
    "signalSeries": {
      "active": [
        false
      ],
      "driver": "Signal driver",
      "entryValue": 0.0,
      "exitValue": 0.0,
      "inputs": [],
      "isDynamic": false,
      "isMulti": false,
      "labels": [
        "2026-01-01"
      ],
      "megaThreshold": null,
      "megaThresholdLabel": null,
      "threshold": 0.0,
      "thresholdKind": "fixed",
      "thresholdLabel": "Entry 0.0",
      "trigger": [
        false
      ],
      "triggers": [],
      "unit": "",
      "values": [
        -0.288
      ],
      "yLabel": "Indicator value"
    },
    "signals": [],
    "slug": "1335",
    "stats": {
      "cagr": 0.0,
      "canonical_asset_rows": 6,
      "canonical_series_observations": 0,
      "economic_publication_lag": "unknown",
      "executable_signal_rows": 0,
      "fail_closed_gaps": 12,
      "inventory_digest_prefix_verified": true,
      "manifest_digest_verified": true,
      "maxDD": 0.0,
      "observed_article_to_snapshot_days": 2836,
      "page_content_length": 80946,
      "playable": false,
      "same_url_crawl_vintages": 2,
      "sharpe": 0.0,
      "sortino": 0.0,
      "source_body_digest_verified": true,
      "target_chart_asset_rows": 0,
      "target_workbook_asset_rows": 0
    },
    "status": "insufficient_evidence",
    "status_chip": "Insufficient evidence",
    "supplemental": {
      "article_date": "2018-11-16",
      "article_timestamp": "2018-11-16T10:35:28-0500",
      "canonical_fetch": "2026-08-22T23:46:05Z",
      "causal_policy": "Article timestamp is the only disclosed cutoff; future overlays require documented point-in-time input availability and at least one available-bar execution lag; same-close unsupported",
      "decision": "insufficient_evidence",
      "indicator_id": "recessionalert-wlei-2nd-derivative-warning",
      "native_span": "Single dated HTML article; no source-linked observation series",
      "publication_lag": "2,836-day snapshot interval observed; actual WLEI/derived-indicator publication lag unknown",
      "registered": false,
      "registry_action": "none",
      "research_narrative": [
        {
          "heading": "Plain-language result",
          "text": "This is a documented warning idea, not a ready-to-run indicator. The article explains a historical-percentage view of weekly WLEI and discusses recession-warning context, but it does not provide observations or a trading rule."
        },
        {
          "heading": "What can be reproduced",
          "text": "The page digest, article date, conceptual WLEI historical-percentage construction, WLEI Diffusion relationship, WLI-first/WLEI-second warning framing, crawl revisions, and absent chart/workbook payloads are reproducible from the checked-in snapshot."
        },
        {
          "heading": "Why no chart or overlay is shown",
          "text": "The three chart references are not canonical assets and no source-linked series or threshold exists. Reconstructing a rank, warning state, or equity curve would imply data and rules the source never supplied."
        },
        {
          "heading": "Causal reading",
          "text": "The article timestamp is the only disclosed cutoff. Any future overlay must use point-in-time inputs and execute at least one available bar later; unknown dates and revisions remain unavailable."
        }
      ],
      "site_section": "other_indicators",
      "source_sha256": "sha256:9a47b636c5273dbe77dc525e0fdaafc9e1e0d8927ea71d86b3f7b23fa3a663a2"
    },
    "tax_analysis": {
      "ltcg_pct": null,
      "note": "Experiment parity stub: no taxable wrapper; see strategy tax_analysis for methodology",
      "schema_id": "tax-analysis/v1",
      "stcg_pct": null
    },
    "taxable_stats": null,
    "title": "RecessionAlert WLEI second derivative warning: no executable series",
    "trading_costs": {
      "avg_daily_turnover": 0.00511,
      "avg_yearly_fees": 0.001288,
      "basis": "monthly_proxy",
      "cost_bps_one_way": 10.0,
      "fee_bps": 10.0,
      "n_bars": 1,
      "schema_id": "trading-costs/v1",
      "slippage_bps": 0.0,
      "total_costs": 5e-06
    },
    "verify": {
      "as_cagr": null,
      "as_stats": null,
      "cagr_delta": null,
      "gates": null,
      "last_verify_at": null,
      "monthly_bias": null,
      "monthly_corr": null,
      "monthly_mae": null,
      "n_months": null,
      "ours_cagr": 0.0,
      "ours_stats": {
        "ann_return": 0.0,
        "sharpe": 0.0,
        "sortino": 0.0
      },
      "passed": null,
      "status": "not_applicable",
      "verify_status": null
    },
    "visualizations": [
      {
        "data": {
          "note": "Narrative source content is reported without fabricating observations, thresholds, signals, market metrics, or portfolio actions.",
          "rows": [
            {
              "detail": "80,946 bytes; fetched 2026-08-22; full digest matches manifest, inventory prefix, and read-only SQLite body",
              "evidence": "Canonical page body",
              "status": "SHA-verified"
            },
            {
              "detail": "Percentage of historical WLEI readings above the current reading; compared conceptually with WLEI Diffusion",
              "evidence": "Disclosed construction",
              "status": "Concept only"
            },
            {
              "detail": "Single dated article; no source-linked WLEI, second-derivative, Diffusion, or ECRI WLI observations",
              "evidence": "Native span",
              "status": "Undisclosed"
            },
            {
              "detail": "2,836-day article-to-crawl interval is archival snapshot delay, not economic release lag",
              "evidence": "Publication lag",
              "status": "Unknown"
            },
            {
              "detail": "Three chart PNGs are uncaptured; six XLSX assets belong to the separate excel-data page",
              "evidence": "Chart/workbook payload",
              "status": "Unavailable"
            },
            {
              "detail": "Use point-in-time input availability and at least one available-bar lag; same-close/lookahead unsupported",
              "evidence": "Causal overlay",
              "status": "Policy only"
            },
            {
              "detail": "Registry unchanged; no signal, equity curve, or market metric fabricated",
              "evidence": "Disposition",
              "status": "Insufficient evidence"
            }
          ]
        },
        "title": "What the snapshot proves",
        "type": "evidence_table"
      }
    ]
  },
  "generated_at": "2026-09-17T04:12:25Z",
  "id": "1335",
  "schema_id": "experiments/v1",
  "schema_version": 1
}