1374 — RecessionAlert Dashboard exploratory campaign

Offline research_campaign for CHARTS > Dashboard. Source SHA256 sha256:1ca9a096a70ff56806049e8e678036118b9a0fea8ad4fd27f2344a1da323e7b0. Public proxies only; no live RA fetch; crawl DB read-only.

In [1]:
from research.research_campaign import recessionalert_1374 as dash
import hashlib, sqlite3
from pathlib import Path

RA = Path('data/recessionalert.sqlite')
con = sqlite3.connect(f'file:{RA.resolve()}?mode=ro', uri=True)
con.execute('PRAGMA query_only=ON')
body = con.execute('SELECT body FROM pages WHERE sha256=?', (dash.SOURCE_SHA256,)).fetchone()[0]
raw = body if isinstance(body,(bytes,bytearray)) else body.encode()
assert 'sha256:' + hashlib.sha256(raw).hexdigest() == dash.SOURCE_SHA256
con.close()
print('digest_ok', dash.SOURCE_SHA256)
panel = dash.load_proxy_panel()
print('panel', panel.index.min().date(), '->', panel.index.max().date(), 'n=', len(panel))

digest_ok sha256:1ca9a096a70ff56806049e8e678036118b9a0fea8ad4fd27f2344a1da323e7b0
panel 1993-01-31 -> 2026-07-31 n= 403
In [2]:
ledger = dash.run_default_ledger()
for row in ledger:
    m = row['metrics']
    print(f"{row['id']:32s} sharpe={m['sharpe']:.3f} cagr={m['cagr']:.3f} dd={m['max_drawdown']:.3f} kind={row['claim_kind']}")
assert len(ledger) >= 3
assert any(r['params'].get('lag_bars',0) >= 1 for r in ledger)
print('variants_ok', len(ledger))

dash-mtdiff-lag1-lb12-c2         sharpe=1.016 cagr=0.109 dd=-0.195 kind=inferred_best_guess
dash-mtdiff-lag1-lb12-c1         sharpe=0.730 cagr=0.101 dd=-0.508 kind=inferred_documented_sedate
dash-mtdiff-lag2-lb6-c3          sharpe=0.701 cagr=0.063 dd=-0.233 kind=inferred_nearby_variant
dash-sigs-lag1-lb12              sharpe=1.023 cagr=0.092 dd=-0.247 kind=inferred_family_variant
dash-fear-lag1-e2                sharpe=0.325 cagr=0.033 dd=-0.426 kind=inferred_family_variant
dash-panic-mega-lag1-dd20        sharpe=0.467 cagr=0.029 dd=-0.232 kind=inferred_family_variant
dash-composite-lag1-v2           sharpe=1.021 cagr=0.094 dd=-0.187 kind=speculative_extension
dash-mtdiff-lag0-lb12-c2         sharpe=1.744 cagr=0.181 dd=-0.106 kind=control_only
variants_ok 8

Notes

  • Metrics are exploratory inferred proxies, not official RecessionAlert product performance.
  • Primary causal path uses lag_bars >= 1; lag-0 is control-only.
  • See research/findings/1374.md and research/results/1374.md.